Author: Scott Bryant

With the Super 14 heading toward a grandstand finish, I thought I would look beyond to see what awaits the Wallabies in the first four matches of their winter campaign. On the face of it there does not seem to be much that will trouble the Wallabies. They play the Baa-Baa’s for the first time on Australian soil, then the notoriously poor travelling Italians, and then the French who will pose the toughest test in the last of the Wallabies month long schedule.

It appears increasingly likely that Berrick Barnes, James Horwill and Mungo McLinden will be passed fit the play this weekend against the Canes. All three took part in the Reds training session today however a definite answer on their fitness will not be made until tomorrow. “They’ve all got to pass their final medicals but we’re hopeful they’ll be back in the team” Damon Emtage, Reds’ backs coach enthused.

Like the Tahs vs Sharks match this weekend, the loser of this game is finished for the year, the difference is with this game, both teams not only need a win but a  4 try bonus point as well . This fact, plus the penchant for the Blues to play expansive rugby, should at least mean whatever the outcome it will be a great game to watch. Much has been made of the Brumbies win last week as evidence they are powering toward the finals but I think the result, which was aided and abetted by the Reds, has papered…

I remember watching the Crusaders give the Tahs a record hiding some years back and thinking the likes of that score would never be repeated. I’ve given it some thought, and I reckon there is a distinct possibility that it might well be repeated this weekend. The Crusaders have romped back into the semi-final hunt and, unlike several other teams above them, are playing their best rugby of the season. They must keep winning with bonus points in order to have a crack at the finals so there is no lack

We let our stat gimp loose on the teams and he couldn’t stop himself delving into the individual players as well. So here they all are. For the most part they reinforce what you might already suspect, but there are a few surprises……..

With the comp drawing to a very congested end, it is interesting to look at a range of stats and line it up against the respective team’s positions on the ladder. What I find surprising is the lowly ‘line-out win %’ of the NZ teams, I guess they aren’t really blessed with decent lineout throwers, but I didn’t think the difference would be so great. Ominously for the up-coming international season, of the top six teams in terms of offloads, 5 of them are from Nu Zulund and Kiwi teams also take the top three ‘tries scored’ spots.

Frank Sinatra once sang “you’re riding high in April, shot down in May” – I’m not sure, but I think I heard Phil Mooney humming the same tune at the end of last night’s game against the Brumbies. Sure, the Reds might not have been exactly riding high last week, but after their ground breaking win against the Blues, there was more than enough to suggest that there might at least be a bright end to the season. There can be no argument however that the Reds have well and truly been “shot down in May” with the record drubbing…

News surfaced over the weekend of the impending doom surrounding the finances of the Western Force, with a report suggesting it was on track to lose some $2.8M dollars this year. At its most hysterical, there were even suggestions the franchise may not be viable and was in danger of going bankrupt. How much of this story is a bargaining gambit to persuade the WA government to shell out the required funds to upgrade Perth’s only semi-suitable rectangle stadium remains to be seen, however it is clear there is no shortage of red ink in the West. 

This game represents the master versus the apprentice. Watching the Reds oscillate from famine to feast then back again by playing their particular style of ‘attacking’ rugby, one can’t help but think they are trying to model their game on a team similar to the Blues. What the Reds lack spectacularly is the ability to do the simple things well. To be able to control attacking ball, to secure tackle ball, to have a reliable line-out and scrum, and to build pressure. All these core skills the Blues have shown in the last few weeks.

The good news for the Force pretty much stopped after the final whistle of their game with the hapless Tahs last weekend. Since then, their CEO has resigned, the drums are beating very loudly that Drew Mitchell is packing his bags, they have lost Dick Brown with a dodgy fetlock and line-out Supremo, Nathan Sharpe, may miss this week’s game as well. Not what you would call the ideal preparation for a must win game, but, the Force have played the season thus far in state of upheaval, so maybe this sort of week is just de rigueur? 

Last weekend’s results have changed things somewhat. Previous to round 10 I had reasonably thought that around 40-42 points would be needed to make the finals but with some of the front runners giving up vital points, I reckon we are now looking at around 38-40 points being the magic number. The stumbling Tahs have done themselves no favours while the Brumbies are now the shining lights of the Australian contenders based purely on form over the last two rounds. The Ponies however are in the grip of an injury crisis

The latest Reds’ promotional campaign features inspiring words with ‘RED’ highlighted, such as ‘HonouRED” “FeaRED” and “InspiRED”, under photos of players who have menacing, determined looks on their faces. I am calling for a Jihad on these posters and wherever someone sees one, they should change the words to ones like, “ButcheRED”, “SlaughteRED” or “REDiculous”. Despite Phil Mooney’s tough talk after the Lions’ game, and the threat of players being dropped, there is very little he can do in terms of personnel that will make a dramatic difference. There is simply no-one else.

Both teams go into the game tonight with their season’s well and truly in the shitter. Despite some valiant losing performances, and an upset win to each, there has been precious little for them to crow about. While this game may be the ultimate ‘dance of the desperates’, it does have some un-wanted significance. With the Cheetahs boil-over win last week and a string of home games to come, the loser tonight will no doubt become the front-runner to collect this season’s wooden spoon.

1. Ben Alexander (Brumbies) – Superb performance with his workrate and willingness to truck the ball-up, just what was needed on a night where the conditions were appalling. 2. Squeeky Moore (Brumbies) – Lead the Brumbies front row which dominated the Stormers pack. Had a pretty solid night with his line-out work and did plenty of dog work in tight. 3. Guy Shepardson (Brumbies) – Hard to leave him out given he played the full game and was in the thick of the action with his two front-row team mates.

What is it about the pressure of expectation that can have such a negative impact on a performance, and yet, a total lack of expectation can allow a team to play at its unimaginable best? This question takes more significance when you cast your eyes over the recent history of the Reds. The Reds have won Super rugby titles when they would not have been realistically expected to, and failed spectacularly when all indicators pointed to greatness. It is my theory that this culture has infected the Reds and they, are unable to break from its grip. A quick history…

Emotions won’t be too far below the surface for the Brumbies and it will depend on their ability to control and channel these emotions that will determine the result. A positive for the Brumbies is the Stormers total lack of cohesion so far this season. I’ve not seen all their games, but the ones I have seen, they don’t look at all like a team that is heading in the right direction. It looks as if the big-guns of the team are happy to sleep walk through this year’s competition and keep themselves safe for the up-coming Lions tour later…

The Reds will be totally friendless this weekend, travelling to the end of the earth to play the mullet-headed pagans of Otago. This game has all the signs of ‘train wreck’ for the Reds, who have never beaten the Highlanders in Nu Zulund, and have not won a game outside of Qld since beating the now extinct, Cats, at Jo’burg almost three years ago. Coach Phil Mooney has brought back Wallabies Marcia Hynes and Spuddie Holmes as well as including Brando Va’aulu, Otago old-boy, Ezra Taylor and academy player and Australian 7’s winger, Luke Morahan, on the bench.

In the last few weeks I’ve done an analysis of the best attacking Australian players in the Super 14, this week, I finally found some reliable defensive stats and I’ve done the numbers – the results are below. As a minimum, forwards must have attempted more than 30 tackles and backs more than 20 tackles in this years comp. The Best…

With the teams now rounding the bend and about to enter the home straight of this year’s Super 14, I thought it timely to have a look at the run home of the three Australian finals contenders. It is interesting the three teams at the head of the table are yet to have their bye, one of these teams being the Tahs so this makes their third place look a little tenuous, albeit the two teams immediate behind them, the Bulls and the ‘Saders, have a tough couple of weeks as well. It looks as if somewhere between 40-42 points…

While the Force and the Reds may kid themselves they are still a chance to make this year’s finals, realistically, they are not. In fact, both teams are at their lowest point of the season after suffering losses in crucial games at their last outing. The Force have been strengthened with the inclusion of Nick ‘Frampton’ Cummins and Richard Brown while the Reds have also made a couple of changes, Higgers comes into the run on side and Ezra Taylor replaces Tasi Luafutu. The Reds replacements are both at the back row, interestingly the area were the Reds were well…