The run home for Aussie S14 contenders

With the teams now rounding the bend and about to enter the home straight of this year’s Super 14, I thought it timely to have a look at the run home of the three Australian finals contenders.

It is interesting the three teams at the head of the table are yet to have their bye, one of these teams being the Tahs so this makes their third place look a little tenuous, albeit the two teams immediate behind them, the Bulls and the ‘Saders, have a tough couple of weeks as well.

It looks as if somewhere between 40-42 points will be the magic mark to make the final four – so which Aussie teams has the best chance to make it?

Tahs

Round	Opponent	Venue	Potential Result	Points
9	Bulls	Sydney	Win	4
10	Force	Sydney	Win	4
11	Bye	–	–	–
12	Cheetahs	Bloem	Win + 4 try bonus pt	5
13	Sharks	Durbs	Loss + <7 bonus pt	1
14	Lions	Joburg	Win	4
			TOTAL	18

 

The Tahs have probably the best draw of the Australian teams in the run home with the only real concern they have being that of facing the leaders, the Sharks, at Durbs in Round 13.

It is hard to see the Tahs stumbling against the Bulls however the Force may be a potential banana-skin for them, neither the Lions nor the Cheetahs should pose any problems for the brutal game of the Tahs.

I predict they’ll get 18 points from their remaining games which when added to the 27 they’ve got already, definitely gets them in the finals but maybe only in third spot. Bonus points will be crucial to the Tahs getting a home semi and given they’ve only 3 so far this season, it might well be their undoing.

 

Brumbies

Round	Opponent	Venue	Potential Result	Points
9	Stormers	Canberra	Loss + <7 bonus pt	1
10	Bulls	Canberra	Win + 4 try bonus pt	5
11	‘Canes	Cake Tun	Loss + <7 bonus pt	1
12	Reds	Brisbane	Win	4
13	Blues	Canberra	Win	4
14	Chiefs	Waikato	Loss	–
			TOTAL	15

The Brumbies face some pretty tough teams in the coming weeks, particularly after a physically and emotionally draining tour of Sth Africa. This weekend they face the Stormers who would have no doubt targeted this game as one they could get away with given the Brumbies will be travel weary.

It looks a hard road for the Ponies from here with the only respite being the Reds in round 12, but even that game might be problematic as it is the last chance for the Reds to salvage something (anything!) from their season.

I’ve been kind and given the Blues game to the Brumbies but, once again, it could be amore than even contest as the Blues are no mugs despite their poor results thus far.

With a predicted 15 points to go with their total of 18 points already, it doesn’t look as though the Brumbies will have enough points to make it.

 

Force

Round	Opponent	Venue	Potential Result	Points
9	‘Canes	Subi	Win	4
10	Tahs	Sydney	Loss + <7 bouns pt	1
11	Lions	Subi	Win + 4 try bouns pt	5
12	Bulls	Loftus	Loss	–
13	Stormers	Cape Town	Loss	–
14	Highlanders	Subi	Win	4
			TOTAL	14

The Force have not been able to string any kind of form together, so it is with some trepidation that I predicted they will beat the ‘Canes this weekend. However, should the Force play anything near the way they did against the Reds, it is hard to see them getting beaten by any of their remaining opponents, but the trouble is, will they be able to reproduce that performance again?

A tough tour of Sth Africa looks to be where the Force will come unstuck but they are a team that travels well so maybe they might just jag one of those games. It’s hard to see it happening, but, depending on which Force team shows up, they might do OK.

With only 14 predicted points to add to their current tally of 17, the Force looks well and truly short of getting anywhere near the finals. Realistically, for the Force to make the finals they would need to win all of their remaining games, and have a smattering of bonus points, which isn’t gonna happen.

 

Get on the Tahs

So there it is, the only Australian team with a better than even chance of making the finals buy my reckoning is the Tahs. The only doubt is whether they can show some attacking ability and snag a few bonus points to make the possibility of a home semi-final a reality.

Let’s all get on the Tahs bandwagon as it continues its relentless journey toward the finals, I’m on it from now on…if I can stay awake during their matches that is!