Preview – Aussie matches in Round 15

Force v. Highlanders

Despite a catalogue of close losses and “what-if” moments, the Force have disappointed themselves and their fans in 2013. They have to win this game for their self-respect and to build on for later times.

With only one victory to to date, the Highlanders have bested the Force in under-achievement and will want to pass wooden-spoon status onto the boys from the west.

Last week the Force displayed energy and good running skills, but also the lack of rugby know-how in several aspects of rugby union. They were poor in the third quarter of the match when they lost patience in implementing their game plan.

The Highlanders gave up a try soon after the kick-off and that established the tone of their match against the Bulls at Loftus. They created chances but they couldn’t convert them when it mattered. They were not helped by their poor discipline which earned them two yellow cards.

Team changes: Force – To be advised

The Highlanders have altered their team wholesale and have eight new starters; so I will spare readers the exact details.  In the forwards only lock Brad Thorn, openside flanker John Hardie and no. 8 Mose Tuiali’i are retained in the run-on team from last week. Lock Josh Berkuis is returning from injury.

The  backline is more stable and has only three new starters: 10. Hayden Parker, 14. Jason Emery and 12. Ma’a Nonu, who is fit to play again.

It’s obvious that coach Jamie Joseph doesn’t have a lot to lose and is giving some promising players a run.  Exciting hooker Liam Coltman gets his second Super start and promising first-five Hayden Parker gets his third after playing well in his first two last month. Livewire flanker TJ Ioane is also let loose for just his fifth run-on gig.

The Plans: After a reasonable first half last week the Force were slow to the breakdown after oranges and lacked their normal intensity. They will have to address those matters and also match the Highlanders physically because the Clan veterans love a confrontation.

The Highlanders should plan on keeping 15 men of the park for 80 minutes and like all teams against the Force: attack wide, away from their narrow defence.

The Matchup: It will be interesting to see how a brand-new Highlanders front row unit operates in the scrum against a more settled Force outfit.

Opponent to watch out for: The elusive All Black utility Tamati Ellison has made a difference when he has been able to play in 2013 and has to be marked closely.

Prediction: In the dance of the desperates, and with the Highlanders coming back from a tour of the RSA and making eight changes to its starting side, I’m going with the home team — Force by 5

Stormers v. Reds

The Stormers are going through a rough patch and they are not playing their laager system of rugby very well. Maybe you have to come from the high veld to do it right.

They have fallen to eleventh in the overall log and are fourth in the South African Conference. At just six points clear of the Southern Kings: could the unthinkable happen?

Their overseas tour will be looked at as an aberration by their fans and now they are at home their systems will start working again. Sure, and Elvis will be in the crowd cheering them on.

The Reds fumbled their chance of going to the top of the Australian Conference last week and can’t afford to make a slip in Cape Town against a team in extremis.

Last week the Stormers looked like strangers in a strange land as their defence looked ordinary instead of extraordinary, as it usually is. They also looked weird, with Jantjies starting, trying to play in an expansive style for part of the game.  It was like watching a cow playing the piano.

Despite a surplus of possession the Reds were out of sorts against the Cheetahs and were not the first Aussie team this year to suffer from their tenacity and ability to exploit opportunities. The Reds’ favourite inside passes were anticipated, and were even less effective than when the Cheetahs did it.

Team changes: The Stormers have hooker Tian Liebenberg back from his elbow injury but they have a butcher’s bill from Melbourne: lock Andries Bekker (back), hooker/flanker Deon Fourie (ribs), centre Juan de Jongh (broken finger), props Frans Malherbe and Pat Cilliers (both, ankles), all miss the match — and Bekker is likely out for the season.

New starting players apart from Liebenberg are Gerbrant Grobler (lock), Damian de Allende (inside centre), Brok Harris (THP) and Don Armand (blindside flanker).

Both starting locks are 21 years old. Grobler, who is making his starting debut, is supposed to weigh only 95kgs. The other lock, Eben Etzebeth, makes the Stormers’ lineout calls from now on.

Reds: To be advised, but winger Digby Ioane is injured.  According to coach McKenzie, Radike Samo could play in this game.

The Plans: The Stormers won’t change much because their players use a rigid structure that has served them for a few years now, and it is too late in the season for a brave new world anyway. But they will have to fix up their driving maul because it is not as scary to Aussie teams as it used to be.

The Reds have lost their mojo before in 2013 and got it back, and they will have to recover it again. They will have to start the game by relying more on their forwards making progress by running over people instead of off-loading at every contact.

The Matchup: With so many changes in the Stormers’ pack in recent weeks, including the absence of Bekker, I think the Reds will fancy their chances in the scrum contest, provided Daley is not involved in too many of them.  They should match up well in the lineouts also because the Stormers have two 21 year-old locks and one is on debut.

Opponent to watch out for: For his slippery, fast running and outstanding courage for a small man, Gio Aplon is worth watching.

Prediction: Hard to pick this. The Stormers have lost three in a row and are suffering from a stream of injuries. They play better without the ball whereas the Reds, who have won just once in Cape Town since 2003, play better with it, but were damn poor in that regard last week.

I’m tossing the coin: Ewen McKenzie to come up with a cunning plan against a depleted home team — Reds by 3

Team Lists

The team lists for all Super Rugby matches in Round 15 can be seen here.

Notes

¹ The success rate counts the Brumbies’ draw against the Kings as half a win.

Featured image photograph on the Home Page courtesy of AJFPhotography