Preview: Aussie matches in Round 11

Bulls v. Waratahs

The Bulls find themselves at the top of the South African Conference and can’t afford to slip against an improving Waratahs’ team that is showing a bit of expansive quality.

Without earning many bonus points to date the Waratahs have to make every post a winner to have any chance of making the finals. But they have just beaten the 2012 Super Rugby champions and if they get a result at Loftus, where they haven’t won since 2002,  they will get a belief that they can beat anybody.

Last week the Bulls played a bit of whoopie rugby against the Kings in the first half because they hogged the ball, and in the right real estate too. But when the Kings got their fair share of possession and territory in the second half they returned to laager rugby until the Kings tired, and the Bulls scored two quick tries before the siren.

The Waratahs dominated the first half then had to defend for most of the second when the Chiefs remembered they were Super Rugby champions and played accordingly. The Tahs seemed exhausted after long periods on defence and lost a comfortable lead, but showed starch and composure coming back to win.

Team changes: Bulls’ winger Bjorn Basson is fit to start after returning from injury via the reserves last week. Lionel Mapoe, who played well against the Kings in Round 10, takes his bench spot.

Francois Hougaard is recovered from his ankle injury and named in the reserves, but such is scrummie Jano Vermaak’s form that he couldn’t be demoted anyway.

Both props are changed. Penalty magnet LHP Dean Greyling is recovered from a foot injury and starts after playing some games for the Blue Bulls. He replaces Morné Mellet who has run-on in all the other Bulls’ games to date. Werner Kruger, the brick with eyes, starts at THP in place of the injured Frik Kirsten.

Blindside flanker Dewald Potgeiter returns to the team after having a crook knee but will play on the open side instead of Deon Stegmann.  He will probably have a brief to take out Michael Hooper. The new arrangement allows the excellent Arno Botha to stay in the run-on team.

The Waratahs’ matchday team is unchanged except that Tom Kingston replaces winger Drew Mitchell, who was injured playing against the Chiefs.

The Plans: The Bulls are not likely to run the ball as much as they did in Port Elizabeth last week. If they do, it will be because the Tahs are having a bad day like the Kings did before oranges on their return from a long tour. The Bulls tend to run a bit only when they are dominant or when they realise that they have to dish out the pill to win a game, usually too late.

Other teams have been successful at running through the Tahs on the transition after they turn the ball over and no doubt the Bulls will be talking about that. They have the players for it out wide but they don’t use them often enough.

Their two wingers, Basson and Ndungane, are good under the ball and will keep a keen eye out for cross-kicks from Tahs’ flyhalf Bernard Foley, who nudged a bullseye kick to Israel Folau in Round 10.

The Waratahs know that the Bulls will kick the ball into their territory and drive from lineouts in the Tahs’ 22; so they will be praticising the diffusion of mauls. The will also be training for the reception of the high kicks which will be offered by the kickmeister, Morné Steyn.

At altitude the Tahs will have to use the boot a bit themselves so they can exit from their 22, and Cam Crawford will probably be set up to do a few long-raking kicks.

One hopes that the Tahs will be reminded about the law of moving out of the 10 metre circle. And hopefully, they noticed Ralepelle’s clever little lineout throw last week and remembered their faux pas in defending such a move against the Rebels in Round 3.

The Matchup: The Bulls’ midfield of 20 year-old 12.Jan Serfontein and 13.JJ Englebrecht has been in good form recently and JJ seems to have thrived on the service from the young fellow. But their Waratahs’ counterparts Rob Horne and Adam Ashley-Cooper are also developing a good combination.

Opponent to watch out for: The kickmeister always has to watched, if for nothing else to see where he is to kick it somewhere else, but the Waratahs should keep the other eye on one of the Bulls’ form players, scrummie Jano Vermaak. He is a sniper supreme as shown in his matching-winning run for a try against the Cheetahs, and has to be watched near the goal line.

Prediction: The Waratahs showed admirable attributes when coming back to score the winning try with three minutes to go last week, but they will need many such moments to overcome a death by a thousand cuts – an accumulation of penalty goals against them – if too much rugby is played in their territory.

They will outweigh the Bulls by about 30kgs at scrum time, if that means anything, and are better technically. They will not be apprehensive at lineout time either because the great man of the Bulls’ lineout is now in the coaches’ box.

The Bulls had a three-game losing streak on tour but have played some good rugby against the Cheetahs and Kings since their return, and weren’t far off winning in Brisbane and Canberra anyway. So at home and against the Tahs who will be strangers in a strange land – Bulls by 6.

Crusaders v. Rebels

The Crusaders have to keep plugging away putting wins in the book to remain in contact with the Blues and the Chiefs who are above them in the NZ conference. Their fans will already have penciled in a win against the Rebels who have problems playing overseas at the best of times.

The Rebels seem like a basket case with off-field problems adding to their recurrent on-field disasters, but they have a straw to hold onto: nobody expected them to beat the Crusaders the last time they played each other, but they did.

Last week the Crusaders played a professional game and bossed the lineouts in terrible conditions through the combination of hooker Corey Flynn and their star second rowers Luke Romano and Sam Whitelock. Their backs misfired as they did in Perth and not all of their problems were due to the weather.

The Rebels had a shocker against the Kings before their bye week. They suffered the visitors to get ahead by 14-0 in as many minutes after kick-off, and though they came back to take the lead, nobody was surprised when they lost the game in the last play of the game.

Team changes: Dan Carter returns from injury in the Crusaders’ reserves; so Tyler Bleyendaal remains as the starting first-five.

Robbie Freuen is rested from the matchday squad and is in no great form anyway. His place at centre is taken by Ryan Crotty, who switches from second-five, and Tom Taylor comes off the bench to wear the 12 jersey.

Willi Heinz starts at scrumhalf replacing Andrew Ellis who takes a breather.

In the forward pack LHP Joe Moody gets his first start in Super Rugby and Wyatt Crockett gets a rest on the bench.

Rebels club captain Gareth Delve returns to the team on the bench, and Jarrod Saffy replaces Luke Jones as blindside flanker.  21 year-old THP Paul Alo-Emile returns to the reserves after gaining valuable experience starting in three games, and Laurie Weeks takes his place.

Fullback Richard Kingi has a long-term knee injury and could be out for the rest of the season.  Jason Woodward moves over to his fullback position and Sevens player Tom English makes his starting debut on the wing after playing only 6 minutes of Super Rugby from the bench before.

The Plans: The Rebels don’t pose many strategic threats; so the Crusaders will work on their execution of backline moves including such radical things as passing and catching the ball properly and not expecting low percentage plays to work.

The Rebels have to tighten up their close work because the Crusaders’ pack is playing like the Borg. Also, defence coach John Muggleton will have to work on their defence on transition because they are like babes in the woods when they turn the ball over and their defensive cordon often gets established too late.

The Matchup:  The Crusaders combination of lineout thrower and receivers, mentioned earlier, up against the Rebels’ lineout outfit.  The Rebels’ lineout catchers Hugh Pyle, Cadeyrn Neville and Scott Higginbotham will want to cause a bit of mischief, and if hooker Ged Robinson can throw accurately, especially to the back over the heads of the gun poachers, they should not be burgled too often.

Opponent to watch out for: Sam Whitelock at lineout times, of course, and although the Crusaders’ backline has not been in crash-hot form, Tom Marshall has played some dangerous games.

Prediction: The Rebels have never won a game overseas and are unlikely to break their duck on Sunday.

The Crusaders lineout, scrum and general forward play are first rate but some of their backs are in poor form.

Nevertheless they should be too strong over the park except when the Rebels have their usual 25 minutes of good play.

Therefore, by the same margin I tipped them to win by in Perth – Crusaders by 20.

Team Lists

The team lists for all Super Rugby matches in Round 11 can be seen here.