How Will The Wallabies Deal With These Threats?

I think there is one certainty in the Wallabies back three if he’s fit – Digby Ioane.

If he’s available Ioane will be one of the Wallabies main attacking weapons and has been in good form for the Reds this year, even though he hasn’t been scoring many tries. I expect he’ll be given a roaming commission to move infield and look for opportunities to get his hands on the ball. He can sometimes be vulnerable under the high ball and I expect that the Lions may seek to kick to his wing to test him out. Even if he catches the ball the Lions chasers will focus on him to try and force him to pass the ball as soon as he catches it, rather than have any room to run it back where he is most dangerous.

There’s some serious doubt that he’ll be ready to go by the first test so I’m going to assume he’s not.

KURTLEY BEALE

I believe Kurtley Beale will be selected in the final squad (as long as there are no issues with fitness over the next couple of weeks) and if he is, I think he’ll start at fullback in the first test. Robbie Deans has given plenty of signals that he wants Kurtley in the team and with James O’Connor starting at number ten, Beale would return to the position most believe has been his best for the Wallabies. In that very short cameo we saw when he returned for the Rebels last month we saw the potential combination with O’Connor when Beale came up from fullback to act as a second playmaker in attack. I think his selection would be wrong on a number of fronts, not least because Beale should be focussing on getting better, not being rushed back into the Wallabies.

If Beale starts, Berrick Barnes will be on the bench to cover fullback. If Beale doesn’t play I think Barnes will start at fullback.

ISRAEL FOLAU

The only player I believe will make his Wallaby starting debut in the first test is Israel Folau and he will have to play on the wing. His form has been fantastic  for the Waratahs at fullback and the discussion about whether he should be eligible for selection with his playing future next year still up in the air is over – if the ARU wanted a commitment from him before being selected for the Wallabies he would not have been picked in the initial 25 man squad.

I expect the Lions will use a lot of high balls as part of their attack and there is no better player in Australian rugby at taking the high ball than Folau. Some have expressed concern about his lack of kicking at the Waratahs but he can kick and with either Beale or Barnes at fullback there will be plenty of kicking capability in the back three. The other concern is his lack of playing time on the wing in rugby but Deans appears to want him in the back three somewhere and if that’s the case he’d be a better option than Beale or Barnes starting on the wing.

I’d actually have Folau starting at fullback ahead of Barnes and I wouldn’t select Beale in the squad.

WHO’LL REPLACE IOANE?

The remaining wing spot will be decided between Nick Cummins and Joe Tomane with Cummins getting the nod due to having more test experience and the form he showed in 2012 when he started his international career. If Ioane is fit Cummins would miss out.

I’ll wrap up my team predictions on page 3.