The Blues, buoyed by a rare away win last week, travel to Allianz Stadium on Saturday night (despite Football Federation Australia’s bizarre request that the match be transferred) to take on a Waratahs’ side that has yet to get out of second gear this season.
The big picture
It is almost certain that only the winner of the Australian Conference will qualify for the playoffs. The Waratahs have the same three-win/ six-loss record as current leaders the Brumbies, but trail 13-18 on the ladder. Since the Brumbies have the bye this week, now would be a good time to claw back some of that lead.
The Blues are at the foot of the New Zealand Conference, six points adrift of the Highlanders, who begin their tour of South Africa this week. Since it is impossible for all five New Zealand teams to qualify, the Blues also need to start making inroads into their deficit ASAP.
Recent form
In their last five starts the Waratahs have had two close away wins over the Rebels and Reds, and lost three, including a dismal defeat to the lowly Kings at home, after leading 17-0.
The Blues have won three of their last five and suffered two narrow losses to the Highlanders and Hurricanes, either of which they could have won.
Tolu Latu – form player for Waratahs returns from injury
The teams
Waratahs
Hooker Tolu Latu is recovered from a shoulder injury and returns to the starting side, as does no. 8 Jed Holloway at the expense of Michael Wells. Scrumhalf Jake Gordon, is rotated back in despite the good play from Nick Phipps against the Reds.
Will Skelton will make his impact from the bench again.
Tackle-busting winger Taqele Naiyaravoro is out for a couple of weeks with a broken hand and is replaced by Reece Robinson.
Blues
The only change to the Blues’ side is that Englishman Piers Francis, returns to the side after being injured prior to the Brumbies’ game.
That is a pity for young Bryn Gatland who did well in Canberra starting for the first time, but Francis is due to play for Eddie Jones in the England summer tour of Argentina, and has more experience.
Piers Francis – chosen for England tout of Argentina
Key players
Sonny Bill Williams will be in the thick of everything the Blues backs do in attack. After a long injury layoff and a poor first-up performance he’s playing his way back into form and had some nice touches in Canberra. With the talent outside him, he’ll need to be watched carefully.
They say form is temporary and class permanent. That being the case Israel Folau needs to show more of his formerly-undoubted class, as his recent form has been average to poor and has many questioning whether the class was ever truly there to begin with.
Bernard Foley is definitely one of the Waratahs’ talisman players and whatever may happen around him, he’s been managing the backline as well as can be expected given his forwards’ propensity for losing the ball in contact, and his outside backs’ poor use of what ball has made it out to them.
Will Skelton appears a completely different player since his time in the English Premiership, and not just in terms of his body shape. That physical change, however, may be why he’s been more effective in the hard stuff this year and he has even taken the occasional lineout.
Bernard Foley – talisman player and may give Tahs an advantage in goal-kicking
Statistically speaking
Reading the stats, the Blues are better in the attacking department and also at retaining the ball from their own rucks. Since the Waratahs miss a quarter of the tackles they attempt, the Blues are also better-rated on defence. They are also the least-penalised team in Super Rugby.
However the Tahs have an edge in goal-kicking and at lineout time.
Prediction
Both teams have been guilty of losing focus at critical times and failing to ram home potentially match-winning positions
One gets the feeling that the team who can better maintain their composure for the full 80+ minutes will come out on top. Despite the Blues not winning away from home twice in a row for yonks. I predict…
Blues by 8
Will Skelton – improved since his time in the English premiership
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Waratahs
1. Tom Robertson
2. Tolu Latu
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Dean Mumm
5. Dave McDuling
6. Ned Hanigan
7. Michael Hooper (c)
8. Jed Holloway
9. Jake Gordon
10. Bernard Foley
11. Cam Clark
12. David Horwitz
13. Rob Horne
14. Reece Robinson
15. Israel Folau
Reserves:
16. Hugh Roach
17. Paddy Ryan
18. Angus Ta’avao
19. Will Skelton
20. Michael Wells
21. Nick Phipps
22. Bryce Hegarty
23. Irae Simone
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Blues
1. Pauliasi Manu
2. James Parsons (c)
3. Charlie Faumuina
4. Gerard Cowley-Tuioti
5. Scott Scranton
6. Steve Luatua
7. Blake Gibson
8. Akira Ioane
9. Augustine Pulu
10. Piers Francis
11. Rieko Ioane
12. Sonny Bill Williams
13. George Moala
14. Matt Duffie
15. Mike Collins
Reserves:
16. Matt Moulds
17. Ofa Tu’ungafasi
18. Sione Mafileo
19. Leighton Price
20. Murphy Taramai
21. Billy Guyton
22. Bryn Gatland
23. Melani Nanai
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Match Details
Date: Saturday, 6 May 2017
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 7:45 pm AEST
Referee: Angus Gardner (Aus)
Assistant referees:
Will Houston (Aus), Graham Cooper (Aus)
TMO: George Ayoub (Aus)
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Statistics courtesy of Opta Sports
