Preview: Rebels Vs Hurricanes

Here we are, finally. It’s Round 7 of Super Rugby 2018 and, for the first time this season, we have a trans-Tasman clash. The Super Rugby leading Melbourne Rebels play the form New Zealand side, the Hurricanes at AAMI Park.

FORM

Both sides recorded impressive wins last start, the Rebels made short work of the Sharks at home while the Hurricanes put an end to the Highlander’s undefeated run. The Hurricanes have an impressive record against the Rebels. The last five games between the two sides have all gone the way of the New Zealanders, with an average margin of 33 points. The ‘Canes have actually won eight of their last nine games in Australia, including their last five straight.

The last time the two sides met the Hurricanes smashed the Rebels 71-6 in Wellington. Much has changed since then however.
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Melbourne Rebels

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The Rebels have recorded four bonus point wins and have the best points differential (+77 points) in the competition. With 28 trys scored in five games there is no doubting the team’s ability to cross the chalk. In defence, the home side’s record is not quite as stellar; they have conceded an average of three trys per game and have the worst tackle success rate (82%) in the Australian Conference.

In attack, the Rebels love to run the ball. They average over 100 carries and 520 run metres per game off the back of a forward pack that has dominated the ruck area. This has allowed Will Genia to direct the play, finding runners looking for gaps either side of the breakdown.

The Rebels scrum has been solid but accuracy at the lineout has let them down on several occasions with over-throws a particular issue.
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The Hurricanes

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The 2016 Champions are the bookies’ favourites to win the competition again this year, and for good reason. Their only defeat occurred in their first match, a two point loss to the Bulls in South Africa. They have the competition’s second best points differential (+50 points) but have played one less game than the Rebels.

Currently the ‘Canes sit in second place in their conference, one point behind the Crusaders who have played one more game. They have already beaten two of their three main conference competitors – defeating the Crusaders 29-19 and the Highlanders 29-12. Their other result was a 34-9 win away over the Jaguares in Round 3.

The Hurricane’s defence is the stingiest in the competition having let in a miserly eight trys to date. They tend to play tight until they turnover possession and then their big backline creates chaos.
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THIS WEEK

With a nearly full list from which to choose, coach Dave Wessells has complained about losing sleep contemplating the line up for this week. He has decided on three changes to the starting side that took apart the Sharks in Round Six. Lopeti Timani, Matt Philip and Tom English return after being rested. Colby Fainga’a and Sefa Naivalu drop back to the bench and lock, Geoff Parling has been omitted. Ben Daley and Jordan Uelese have recovered from injury and will replace Fereti Sa’aga and Mahe Vailanu as substitutes.

The Hurricanes have also made three changes to the starters, losing both Mike Proctor and Ardie Savea to injury. Sam Henwood will earn his debut at openside flanker and last year’s try scoring machine, Vince Aso replaces Proctor. In a big boost for the visitors, Vaea Fifita resumes his place in the second row at the expense of former Rebel, Murray Douglas.

The big question this week will be whether or not the Rebels are capable of breaking down the Hurricanes’ water tight defence and create line breaks and opportunities for the outside backs. With this in mind, the Rebels are going into the game with a very big backrow, essentially playing dual blindside flankers, and a six-two bench split.

As all teams do, by fair means or foul, the Hurricanes will target Will Genia and try to prevent him getting clean ball away. They will try and play at a high tempo and look to create openings in broken play.

The Rebels will need to make their first up tackles stick or good luck trying to contain Lam, Savea or Other Barrett if they get space on the outside.
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KEY MATCH UPS

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Will Genia Vs TJ Perenara

This battle will be decided by whichever teams’ forward pack can provide their respective little general better protection and better access to the ball. The Rebels defenders need to heap the pressure on Perenara and give him no space around the rucks to make his breaks.
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Jack Debreczeni Vs Beauden Barrett

This one looks like a complete mismatch, “the master” vs “the guy that could potentially be a pretty good player”, but JD has been in good form and may have played his best ever match last week. He needs to find a way to just break even and not try and overplay his hand when under pressure.
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The Forward Packs

Of course the match up between the packs will decide the winner, it usually does. Both teams have plenty of threats out wide and quality runners in their backlines but the forwards will need to provide the opportunities to strike.
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PREDICTION

The Hurricanes are just about the complete team and boast star quality everywhere. They are in form, have beaten quality opponents in recent weeks, and deserve to go in to this game as favourites.

The Hurricanes probably need this win more than the Rebels. The New Zealand conference is tight, very tight, only two points separate first and fourth and the Crusaders are only leading by way of the fact that they have played an extra game. Away wins are crucial to any team’s chance of winning their conference and earning a home final.

Many pundits are saying that they hope the Rebels can get close and earning a losing bonus point will be a great result. Bugger that. Australia needs the Rebels to win this week and I think (hope) they can. Rebels by two points #ibelieve.

Here’s some evidence that it can be done.

TEAMS

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Melbourne Rebels

1. Tetera Faulkner
2. Anaru Rangi
3. Jermaine Ainsley
4. Matt Philip
5. Adam Coleman (C)
6. Lopeti Timani
7. Angus Cottrell
8. Amanaki Mafi
9. Will Genia
10. Jack Debreczeni
11. Marika Koroibete
12. Bill Meakes
13. Reece Hodge
14. Tom English
15. Jack Maddocks 

    Finishers

16. Jordan Uelese
17. Ben Daley
18. Sam Talakai
19. Ross Haylett-Petty
20. Colby Fainga’a
21. Richard Hardwick
22. Michael Ruru
23. Sefanaia Naivalu

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Hurricanes

1. Chris Eves
2. Ricky Riccitelli
3. Ben May
4. Vaea Fifita
5. Sam Lousi
6. Brad Shields
7. Sam Henwood
8. Gareth Evans
9. TJ Perenara
10. Beauden Barrett
11. Ben Lam
12. Ngani Laumape
13. Vince Aso
14. Julian Savea
15. Jordie Barrett 

    Reserves

16. Asafo Aumua
17. Fraser Armstrong
18. Jeff Toomaga-Allen
19. Michael Fatialofa
20. Reed Prinsep
21. Jamie Booth
22. Ihaia West
23. Wes Goosen

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MATCH DETAILS