Preview – Aussie matches in Round 14

Waratahs v. Brumbies

The Waratahs have to keep winning, and in particular have to beat both the Brumbies and Reds in return matches to have an outside chance of making the finals.

The Brumbies also have to keep winning because the Reds won’t go away. The match will also be important to the Brumbies’ players: can they force the Wallabies’ selectors to rub some of the many Tahs’ names off their clipboards, and have their own written down?

Last week the Brumbies had the bye but in Round 12 they were well-beaten by the Crusaders until it was too late to win.

The Waratahs scored the only two tries in the match against the Stormers but found it difficult at other times to get over the wall. However the superiority of the Waratahs’ bench and a gutsy call by skipper Dennis cracked the visitors open for the winning try.

Team changes: There are only two changes for the Waratahs. In the forwards Paddy Ryan starts at THP whilst Sepoke Kepu plays from the bench. Drew Mitchell, who returned from injury last week proves his fitness and plays on the wing instead of Peter Betham.

The Brumbies keep the same backline but have two changes in the forwards.

Scott Fardy returns from an ankle injury and plays in the second row, with Peter Kimlin switching to the blindside flank. Fotu Auelua is replaced and will make an impact from the bench.

From their front-row in Round 12, THP Dan Palmer is rested to recover from a foot injury, Ben Alexander switches over to replace him, and Scott Sio starts at LHP. Reserve prop Ruan Smith moves into the matchday squad and could play his first game for the Brumbies from the bench.

The Plans: The Waratahs know they will have to compete better at the breakdown than they did in Canberra, and they have been doing that in recent games.

They had trouble unlocking the Stormers last week and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is another wide, high kick near the Brumbies’ goal line for Folau. And when the Brumbies populate the defensive line with too many players, the Tahs should try some pick and goes; something they should have done more of last week.

The Brumbies will plan to repeat what they did in Round 4 when they thrashed the Waratahs physically and psychologically. They had their opponents on the back foot at the breakdowns, whichever team had the ball, and racked up penalty goals early when the Tahs had to infringe. They never allowed the Sydney team to get any rhythm, let alone a try.

The Matchups: The contest between players in just about every position will be interesting and the same goes for the units, such as front row, second row etc.

But it will be the ruck and tackle matchup that will decide the game.

The scrums should be even but the Brumbies could have an edge over the shaky Waratahs’ lineout.

Opponent to watch out for: There’s a lot in either side for both opponents and spectators to watch, including each of the backrowers in both teams, but it will be the fulllbacks that will be the danger men if they get a chance.

This time the Waratahs have to do a better job at containing Jesse Mogg. He had a mixed game last up against the Crusaders, but in Round 4 he ran through a lot of blue jerseys and set up one of the best tries of the tournament.

Waratah Israel Folau had a quiet day on the wing in that match but since then he has been making every post a winner at fullback.

Prediction: Just before their bye the Brumbies had not been impressive in big games. In Round 10 they were fortunate in scrapping for a draw against the Reds, and they could not challenge the Crusaders in Round 12 until they were too far behind to win the game.

The Waratahs have had an up and down season and are currently on the rise, but one can’t help remembering how the Brumbies beat them across the park last March in Canberra.

Even though the Waratahs are at home this time and are playing some good rugby — Brumbies by 5

Cheetahs v. Reds

The Cheetahs have to get back on the horse and recover the confidence they got from their tour of Australia and New Zealand.

The Reds got its magic show going again last week, but it was only for one half of rugby. Against a hostile crowd in Bloemfontein, at altitude, they will have to command the game for longer this week.

Last week the Cheetahs got close to the Hurricanes at the end but their final flourish glossed over some ordinary rugby, even though they had enough ball.

The Reds played the first half against the listless Sharks like millionaires then took their foot of the throat after oranges, but it didn’t matter.

Team changes: As expected James Horwill returns to play in the Reds’ second row after being cleared from a head knock in Round 12, but fullback Jono Lance is still bothered by a shoulder nerve problem and stands down.

Luke Morahan is recovered from the cracked rib he got in Round 7 and replaces Lance after playing a couple of club games already. Chris Feauai-Sautia retains his outside centre spot after his cracking game there last week

The Cheetahs change only two in their run-on team.

Pieter Labuschagne, the leading tackler before his injury, returns to the blindside flank, and Elgar Watts, who has played only two games from the bench in Super Rugby, gets his debut start at flyhalf. Burton Francis, who had an unhappy game in the 10 jersey last week, is in the reserves.

The Plans: The Cheetahs lacked mongrel against the Canes and need to get it back because they will get no leeway from the Reds at the breakdown. They have the biggest pack in South Africa, but they don’t bash opponents like the Bulls and the Stormers do. They will have to commit more players to more rucks than they have been doing.

The Reds are good at changing their plans to match their opponents, but the Cheetahs play their kind of game. Defending against it comes more naturally to them than against typical South African coached sides like the Bulls, Stormers and Brumbies.

The Matchup: The Reds have correctly retained their 5/2 bench to cope with a meaty Cheetahs’ pack.  The physical battle of the 26 forwards in the game will be the key to who wins the contest because it will be that team who provides the better front-foot ball.

If the Reds get the upper hand there the Genia/Cooper combination should thrive as they have more experience and brilliance than the Cheetahs’ halves do.  Mind you, the scoreboard does not registers “shoulds.”

Opponent to watch out for: As usual for teams playing the Cheetahs, the Reds have to watch out for Wiley le Roux, (as his name should be spelt) and Heinrich Brüssouw, the burglar, but they should not forget to knock Adriaan Strauss over on his arse a few times. The hooker/skipper is a destructive runner when he gets going.

Prediction: The Cheetahs have had a watershed season but they went into their bye week after a subdued win against the Kings in Round 11. They hadn’t freshened up much for the Hurricanes in Round 13 either, and the scoreboard flattered them.

The Reds have not been great in tight, combative games this year but the Cheetahs’ style should suit them fine. After they got their mojo back last week, albeit only for the first half — Reds by 5

Team Lists

The team lists for all Super Rugby matches in Round 14 can be seen here.