Over the last three Tri Nations games I’ve looked at the breakdown to analyse the level of infringements occurring and what referees are missing or allowing to occur without penalising.
To look for trends I’ve now analysed two games each for the All Blacks, Springboks and the Wallabies. Whilst that’s by no means a big enough sample size to determine exact trends, that’s as big as it’s going to get as the time involved in this analysis has already been significant.
My analysis of the match between the Springboks and Wallabies in Durban found the following:
- In the 76 breakdowns where the Springboks took the ball into the breakdown they committed 4 infringements or at 5% of the breakdowns, which is the lowest of any team in any other game;
- Of those 4 infringements one was penalised (25%);
- In the 77 breakdowns where the Wallabies took the ball into the breakdown they committed 16 infringements or at 21% of the breakdowns;
- Of those 16 infringements 2 were penalised (13%);
- In the 77 breakdowns where the Springboks didn’t take the ball in they committed 9 infringements or at 12% of the breakdowns;
- Of those 9 infringements 1 was penalised (11%);
- In the 76 breakdowns where the Wallabies didn’t take the ball in they committed 12 infringements or at 16% of the breakdowns;
- Of those 12 infringements 9 were penalised (75%).
Over the three matches I analysed the results were as follows:
In Defence
| All Blacks | Springboks | Wallabies | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Infringements When Defending | 16 | 15 | 16 | 47 |
| Total Defensive Breakdowns | 168 | 157 | 159 | 484 |
| Infringements as a % of Breakdowns | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Penalties Actually Awarded Against Team Infringing | 6 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| Penalties as a % of Infringements in Defence | 38% | 20% | 69% | 43% |
In Attack
| All Blacks | Springboks | Wallabies | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Infringements When Attacking | 46 | 21 | 39 | 106 |
| Total Attacking Breakdowns | 163 | 147 | 174 | 484 |
| Infringements as a % of Breakdowns | 28% | 14% | 22% | 22% |
| Penalties Actually Awarded Against Team Infringing | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
| Penalties as a % of Infringements in Attack | 7% | 24% | 15% | 13% |
The trend here is clear – the attacking team is being favoured by the referees with only 13% of infringements being penalised whereas the defending team was penalised on 43% of occasions they infringed. As I’ve said in previous articles I’m happy with the attacking team being favoured and the ratio of around 3 to 1 seems reasonable to me.
In defence there is virtually no difference between the three teams in terms of the level of infringements. I recorded infringements for each team at 10% of breakdowns with the All Blacks and Wallabies at 16 each and the Springboks at 15. Clearly teams are being careful not to give away cheap penalties when in defence.
There is a difference in the number of times the infringements are being penalised with the Springboks fairing the best with only 20% of infringements being penalised compared to 38% for the All Blacks and 69% for the Wallabies. The Wallabies were penalised for 50% of their infringements in their first game I analysed against the All Blacks and 75% in their second game against the Springboks. Is this a result of (a) not enough games in the sample; b) both games for the Wallabies being away games; or (c) the Wallabies being far too obvious when infringing? It’s probably a combination of all three factors and others but one thing is clear: the Wallabies need to do some work to reduce cheap penalties before the World Cup. We saw in last weekend’s game between the Springboks and All Blacks that a team playing in ‘World Cup Mode’ with a good goal kicker doesn’t need to score tries to beat you.
In attack there is a difference in both the level of infringement and the percentage of infringements that were penalised. The All Blacks committed infringements at 28% of breakdowns, the Wallabies at 22% and the Springboks at only 14% of breakdowns. The All Blacks were only penalised for 7% of those infringements, the Wallabies 15% and the Springboks at 24%. It would appear that the All Blacks are the best team at playing to the current trend in the game of favouring the attacking team over the defending team. Is this a tactic and is it a tactic of the Wallabies and Springboks not to be as aggressive in their approach? Who knows, but I’m sure plenty of people will have their say over the next few days.
In terms of the approach of referees from the different hemispheres, one of the games was controlled by a Northern Hemisphere referee, Alain Rolland and the other two by Southern Hemisphere referees, Craig Joubert and Bryce Lawrence. Rolland penalised the defending team for 42% of their infringements whilst the Southern Hemisphere referees penalised 43% of the infringements by the defending team. Rolland penalised the attacking team for 16% of their infringements whilst the Southern Hemisphere referees penalised 21% of the infringements by the attacking team.
I’m sure there aren’t many coaches who would look at these numbers and decide that it would help a team compete by pushing the envelope further when going into breakdowns in possession. A much better way is to work hard on the techniques of players and make them more effective in their support and clean-out roles.
