With six rounds remaining in the regular season I fired up the crystal ball to determine who will, who won’t, and who might yet be playing finals footy.
In in Part 1 I concluded that six teams – Reds, Force, Kings, Sunwolves, Jaguares & Cheetahs – have no hope of making the play offs, and that the Stormers & Lions will likely win the Africa 1 & 2 Conferences with the Bulls the most likely African wildcard.
In Part 2 I concluded that the Crusaders & Brumbies are the most likely Australasian Conference winners; the Chiefs all but certain to secure a wildcard; and the Waratahs likely to (just) miss the cut UNLESS a kiwi team implodes.
Results over the weekend see the Crusaders still on top of the overall Table (even if only by points differential), the Waratahs atop the Australian Conference, and the Stormers & Lions leading their respective Conferences. The African wildcard is currently held by the Sharks.
The Contenders – Australasian Wildcards
The Chiefs
Current points 37
Form: eight wins, two losses & the most points scored in the competition (342).
Remaining fixtures: Rebels (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (Fiji),
Reds (A), Highlanders (A).
Prospects: three matches against fellow-contenders, but should flog both Rebels & Reds to compensate for any loss(es). Crusaders in Fiji could yet decide the overall “minor premier”
Predicted final points: 55
Predicted seeding: wildcard
The Highlanders:
Current points 37
Form: eight wins & three losses, all by seven or less.
Remaining fixtures: BYE, Hurricanes (A), Kings (A), Jaguares (A), Chiefs (H).
Prospects: probably need to beat at least one of the other kiwi heavyweights and/or take maximum points from their away trip to compensate for the bye. Will also be hoping the Waratahs winning streak doesn’t continue too much longer.
Predicted final points: 45
Predicted seeding: wildcard
The Hurricanes:
Current points 36
Form: seven wins & four losses with a competition-leading six try-scoring bonus points & second-best points for (302).
Remaining fixtures: BYE, Highlanders (H), Blues (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (A).
Prospects: similar draw to Highlanders but with the advantage of only having to play two of the other three leading kiwi sides.
Predicted final points: 47
Predicted seeding: wildcard
The Waratahs:
Current points 30
Form: six wins, four losses & fewest points conceded in the Australian Conference (189)
Remaining fixtures: Crusaders (A), Chiefs (H), Sunwolves (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A).
Prospects: currently top of the Australian Conference but yet to play three fellow-contenders, albeit two of them at home. Finishing on top is probably a bridge too far, a wildcard isn’t out of the question but they’d likely need a kiwi team to implode.
Predicted final points: 42, not enough to qualify.
The Blues:
Current points 25
Form: five wins, four losses & a draw. Heavy loss to Lions has put their points differential back into the red.
Remaining fixtures: Force (A), Crusaders (H), Hurricanes (A), Brumbies (H), Waratahs (H).
Prospects: better than they looked a month ago but still too many quality teams left to play. Could yet rain on one or more victory parade, though.
Predicted final points: 33, not enough to qualify.
The Rebels:
Current points 23
Form: five wins, five losses & have conceded more points than they’ve scored (235-258).
Remaining fixtures: Chiefs (A), Force (H), Stormers (H), Crusaders (A), Reds (A).
Prospects: should be too good for the Force & Reds but unlikely to beat anyone else.
Predicted final points: 32, not enough to qualify
Predicted Seedings:
(Conference winners)
1. Crusaders, 58 points
2. Stormers, 53
3. Lions, 48
4. Brumbies, 45
(Wildcards)
5. Chiefs, 55
6. Hurricanes, 47*
7. Bulls, 47*
8. Highlanders, 45
*Hurricanes to finish higher on matches won or points differential.
Assuming the above, the Quarter Final draw would be:
Crusaders v Highlanders
Stormers v Bulls
Lions v Hurricanes
Brumbies v Chiefs
The great unknown in all of this is, of course, the month-long break to accommodate the inbound tours. The teams in the running for the playoffs will be hoping to get all of their players back in one piece & ready for finals footy.
