This last game of the 2014 Rugby Championship will be like a dance of the desperates.
Argentina will have nothing to lose and will throw everything they have at the Aussies.
The Wallabies will have to get their heads and bodies back in shape after the mauling they got in Cape Town.
The form
Argentina
If their stars had been right Argentina could have won their two tests against South Africa and drawn their match against Australia. They even had some good moments against the All Blacks.
Their form is not too far off that of the Aussies. One of these Rugby Championship days they are going to play for 80 minutes, or get a break from a referee, to turn the rugby world upside down.
Australia
The Wallabies performances in the Rugby Championship have been like an Opera House season of six operas—with one to go.
The first one in Sydney had more mistakes and misunderstandings than The Marriage of Figaro as the Wobs found a way to draw a game that should have been won. And the cast of both sides made it as boring as Boris Gudonov.
The third in Perth and the fourth on the Gold Coast had lucky decisions for the Aussies as though the referee was the compassionate Pasha in The Abduction From The Seraglio.
The fifth in Cape Town had a good plot but an unexpected tragic ending like when the boyfriend of Tosca was shot, or when Rigoletto opened the bag and found out who he had clubbed to death.
What about the second one? That was as though the Wallabies got on all fours at Eden Park to be rodgered by Don Giovanni.
Don Giovanni – rodgered plenty
The players
Argentina
Argentina has made a number of changes but the critical one is to cover the absence of flanker Juan Martín Fernandez Lobbe who has returned to his French club, Toulon.
With another stalwart, Juan Manuel Leguizamon, out injured since two weeks ago and lock Patricio Albacete not wanted this year, the Pumas are missing a big chunk of pack test experience and on-field leadership compared to what they used to have.
A surprise change is that Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro replaces the excellent Ramiro Herrera at tighthead prop. Another is that try-scoring machine winger Manuel Montero is not in the 23 and no reason is given.
New starting players in/(out): 12. Agulla (Bosch), 11. Amorisino (Montero), 9. Landajo (Cubelli), 6. Baez (Lobbe), 3. Chaparro (Herrara)
Juan Manuel Leguizamon – still injured
Australia
Coach Ewen McKenzie has recognised the physicality of the Pumas and the effect of the bruising game in Cape Town by selecting six forwards and only two backs in the reserves.
The extra forward is also insurance against a repeat of the bench drubbing they got last week.
The starting Wallaby backline is retained but two forwards who were on the bench against the Boks start in the test: ex-captain James Horwill replaces lock Rob Simmons (concussion) and Scott Higginbotham substitutes for no. 8 Ben McCalman (shoulder).
In the reserves Josh Mann-Rae replaces James Hanson, Will Skelton is in for Horwill and Jake Schatz for Higginbotham, Matt Hodgson is the extra bench forward and deposes utility back Kurtley Beale, who is anyway under a cloud because of an off-field incident.
The match ups
The scrums
The starting Wallaby props had no particular problems with the Pumas at the Gold Coast three weeks ago. Although scrums rely on team work, LHP Slipper should not be too concerned with new Puma THP Chaparro, who has started in only three test matches, and only one against a major test playing country (France, at home).
However reserve LHP Robinson will have his work cut out against reserve Puma THP Hererra.
It is critical for the Wallabies to get the timing of the push right against this mob: they can’t rely on the Pumas getting in wrong as they did in the last scrum on the Gold Coast.
James Slipper – shouldn’t have a problem against new Argentine THP .
The lineouts
With the Wallaby lineout sergeant, Rob Simmons, not playing, they have to step up in their organisation. Hopefully Horwill has talked to Sharpie on the phone.
The flyhalves
Nicolás Sánchez who has just been signed as a “medical joker” by Toulon is a good operator and has helped recent Pumas’ sides to play a more expansive game through his natural instincts.
Bernard Foley hasn’t been brilliant this international season but he has been steady and often influential. He will want to impress coach McKenzie with a rousing performance to get the coach’s mindset right for the end-of-year tour.
The prediction
After the Wallabies arrived in Argentina battered and bruised, mentally and physically, you could pick the Pumas causing an upset.
But recalling that Australia had the same experience last year, yet thrashed the Argies a week afterwards—and considering that the locals don’t have their best possible team—you have to go for the Aussies.
I’m picking that the finish of the sixth opera of the season will trigger a rejoicing chorus like at the end of Julius Caesar.
Wallabies by 12
Bernard Foley – has been steady and influential
The Players
Argentina
1. M. Ayerza, 2. A. Creevy, 3. NT Chaparro, 4. M. Galarza, 5.T. Lavanini, 6. R. Baez, 7. B. Macome, 8. L. Senatore, 9. M. Landajo, 10. N. Sanchez, 11. LG. Amorosino, 12. JM Hernandez, 13. H. Agulla, 14. J. Imhoff, 15. J. Tuculet.
Reserves: 16. Matias Cortese, 17. B. Postiglioni, 18. R. Herrera, 19. M. Alemanno, 20. JO Desio, 21. T. Cubelli, 22. M. Bosch, 23. J. de la Fuente.
Australia
1. J. Slipper, 2. S. Fainga’a, 3. S. Kepu, 4. S. Carter, 5. J. Horwill, 6. S. Fardy, 7. M. Hooper, 8. S. Higginbotham, 9. N. Phipps, 10. B. Foley, 11. J. Tomane, 12. M. To’omua, 13. T. Kuridrani, 14. A. Ashley-Cooper, 15. I. Folau.
Reserves: 16. J. Mann-Rea, 17. B. Robinson, 18. B. Alexander, 19. W. Skelton, 20. J. Schatz, 21. M. Hodgson, 22. Nic White, 23. Rob Horne.
Match Details
Date: Saturday, October 4 (local)
Venue: Estadio Único Ciudad de La Plata, Mendoza
Kick-off: 8:40pm (local) — 9:40 am AEST Sunday, October 5
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant Referees: Craig Joubert (South Africa), Leighton Hodges (Wales)
TMO: Deon van Blommestein (South Africa)
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