History shows these two teams are destined to play out a close encounter. Can the Force pull off an unexpected upset, or will the Rebels win in front of their passionate home crowd?
The Form
In the words of Tony McGahan, the Rebels played an “embarrassing” first half against the Chiefs. Whilst they stemmed the flow of points in the second half, the damage was done, losing 36 – 15. The only real shining lights form the Match was McMahon (again), Harris and Hodge. For the first time in recent history, Debreczei was dragged from the field.
Mike Harris – one of the few shining lights for the Rebels last weekend.
The Force continued their winless record at home, going down to the Blues 17 – 10. Playing in atrocious conditions, they put themselves in a position to win, only to cough up the ball at crucial points in the game. Even the Sea of Blue would have found that tough to watch.
The Teams
The Rebels have made a number of changes to the starting side. Toby smith moves to Tight head, Mike Harris to flyhalf and Jack Debreczei to Fullback. Colby Faainga’a starts at number 8, with Adam Thomson rotating to the Bench. Jordy Reid gets another stat at 7. Scott Fugistaller joins the bench in a 6 – 2 forwards split.
The Force have make four changes to the matchday 23. Chris Alcock starts in place of the injure skipper, Matt Hodgson. Peter Grant will play at 10, while Heath Tessman and Junior Rasolea come onto the bench. Pek Cowan will Captain the side, in the absence of Matt Hodgson.
Key Match-ups
Timani vs Coleman
The battle between these two behemoths will be a spectacle in its own right. Coleman is having a great season in all aspects of the game. Last weekend is a good example; his ruck involvement was terrific, topping the stats for the force (involvement and effectiveness). This could create some headaches for the Rebels backrow, so they will need to be on their toes.
Adam Coleman. A big man, with a big future.
Timani is start to hit a period of good form, after a relatively slow start to season 2016. Whilst his backrow teammates control the ruck, Lopeti is throwing his big frame into attacking plays, troubling the defenders on most occasions. He’s also contributed to one of the more solid Scrums from Melbourne in recent years, a big part of the early season success for the Rebels.
Harris vs DHP
The return of Mike Harris has been a blessing for the Rebels, considering the indifferent form of Debreczei. Mike is a one of those metronome players; always reliable, hardly skips a beat, level headed. In such a young backline, he brings a sensible mind to the Rebels backline. This was on show against the Chiefs last weekend; despite the pasting, he managed to score a try and set up another. In tight situations, the Rebels can count on Mike to prevail.
Dane Haylett-Petty has been exciting to watch all year. With ball in hand, and some space in front of him, he’s proven to be quite elusive. In his 11 matches this season he’s had 137 (2nd in competition) and run 786 metres (4th in competition). If he’s not scoring tries, and he was unlucky last weekend, he’s setting up him teammates to score them.
Mikey might be named at 10, but expect him to interchange with JD, who has been picked at Fullback. With both players picked in the Wallabies 39 man squad. Cheika will watch this match with added interest.
Hodge vs Godwin
A few years ago, Godwin was spoken of as the next Wallaby 12. Sadly. A host of problems (injury, form, Wallaby pecking order) has cruelled his chances. The loss of Jono Lance hasn’t helped him shine either, with poor service from Ian Prior and Peter Grant, limiting his opportunities to shine.
He will come up against the new rising star in Reece Hodge. Every time he get the balls, something exiting happens. He has a great workrate, he can read the play, and he is in the right position to make a difference. In his last five matches, he has scored at least one try. No wonder there is talk of him as a potential Wallaby this year.
Reece Hodge with another Try.
Fearless Prediction
I must admit, I do love an underdog. In fact, I don’t know anyone who doesn’t like an underdog. Steve Bradbury anyone?
Sadly, I don’t think there will be a good underdog story this Sunday afternoon. I think the Rebels will regroup from the Waikato spanking and put in a solid 80min performance. Considering the weather forecast, it’s unlikely to be a spectacle of running Rugby, so expect to see the Rebels backrow dominate proceedings.
I predict a tight forwards game, with the Rebels backline to finish off with the majority of points. The loss of the talismanic Hodgson will be too much for the Force to bear, with the Rebels running out winners.
Rebels by 7.
Team Lists
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Rebels
1. Cruze Ah Nau
2. James Hanson
3. Toby Smith
4. Luke Jones
5. Lopeti Timani
6. Sean McMahon
7. Jordy Reid
8. Colby Fainga’a
9. Nic Stirzaker (Captain)
10. Mike Harris
11. Tom English
12. Reece Hodge
13. Mitch Inman
14. Sefa Naivalu
15. Jack Debreczeni
Replacements
16. Pat Leafa
17. Tom Moloney
18. Tim Metcher
19. Culum Retallick
20. Scott Fuglistaller
21. Adam Thomson
22. Ben Meehan
23. Jonah Placid
[/one_third]
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Force
1 Pek Cowan (C)
2 Harry Scoble
3 Guy Millar
4 Ross Haylett-Petty
5 Adam Coleman
6 Brynard Stander
7 Chris Alcock
8 Ben McCalman
9 Alby Mathewson
10 Peter Grant
11 Luke Morahan
12 Kyle Godwin
13 Ben Tapuai
14 Marcel Brache
15 Dane Haylett-Petty
Replacements
16. Heath Tessmann
17. Francois Van Wyk
18. Tetera Faulkner
19. Rory Walton
20. Angus Cottrell
21. Ryan Louwrens
22. Solomoni Rasolea
23. Semisi Masirewa
[/one_third]
[one_third last=”yes”]
Details
Date: Sunday 29 May 2016
Kick-Off: 16:05 local
Referee: Chris Pollock
AR1: Andrew Lees
AR2: Michael Hogan
TMO: George Ayoub[/one_third]
