Could history change in Hamilton on Saturday?
If you are a realist you would point to the record books and a World Cup trophy safely in Steve Hansen’s hot water cupboard; but if you dare to dream, you know the Pumas do have a small chance and you will be glued to the screen this Saturday.
The Form
New Zealand – The current World Cup Champions, are on 13-test winning streak and even more impressively, a 42-consecutive winning streak at home. Their form in the first two games of the Rugby Championship [TRC] against the Wallabies was impressive, as were their winning margins. They scored ten tries and conceded just one in the two matches, which says it all about their defensive strength and attacking power.
Argentina – In the 2015 Rugby World Cup they lost to the All Blacks in their pool game by “only” ten points then thrashed Ireland to make the semi-final where they lost to the Aussies. In the TRC they lost a late squeaker to South Africa in Nelspruit and turned the tables the following week, winning late in Salta 26-24, for their historic first home victory against the Boks.
Manuel Montero (Super Rugby 2016) – the big bopper will be missed
The players
New Zealand has made only one change to the team which beat the Wallabies in Wellington two weeks ago: Ryan Crotty returns after suffering concussion in Sydney, relegating Anton Lienert-Brown to the bench.
Argentina – Injuries have displaced three players who started at Salta: inspirational flanker Juan Manuel Leguizamon (thigh) is replaced by Javier Ortega Desio – unruly, giant lock Tomas Lavanini (ACL) by Guido Petti – and big bopper winger Manuel Montero (thigh) by Matthias Moroni, who returns from the Olympic Sevens.
The Methods
All Blacks
They are unlikely to alter their strategy. They beat the Wallabies twice through a massive defensive effort and clinically executing with ball in hand. They are masters of getting the ball to the extra man outside, but first this requires committing opponents to defend inside, or on the other side of the ruck.
The All Black pack can be described in two ways: first as an eight-man loose forward pack; second as a well-drilled unit for set-pieces, or virtual set-pieces—even broken-field plays are choreographed.
The backline is a clinical try-scoring machine which has pace and vision. Although they put on breath-taking moves displaying remarkable athleticism, their success is underwritten by being well-drilled in the basics, backing up, catching the ball, making the right decisions and running straight and hard.
Pumas
Over the last two years Argentina have developed their offloading game and more width to their attack. This is higher risk football but they are surprisingly accurate – more so than the Argentine team of five years ago.
Their forwards are more athletic than in years past and can operate as a five-man loose forward pack who often stand two-wide of the breakdown on attack and run at gaps with runners either side.
The Argentine set-piece may be their Achilles heel. Their lineout lacked urgency against the Boks and whilst they had the edge in the scrums in the first half in Salta they surrendered it in the second.
Beauden Barrett – best test player in the world on current form
Key match-ups
The halves
The contest between Kiwis Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett, and Argentines Martin Landajo and Nicholas Sanchez, will be mouth-watering though, as ever, it will be the pairing that is served best by it’s forwards that will shine.
Barrett is probably the test player of the year-to-date: time seems to slow down for him, and Smith is as cunning as a rat with a gold tooth and has the skills to profit from it. The Pumas’ pairing can be shape-shifters when the going is good but they are confidence players and don’t have the same record of playing well in adversity as the couple in black do.
Aaron Smith – like a rat with a gold tooth
The no. 8s
Kieran Read is Kieran Read, but Facundo Isa, a smaller and younger player, is in the form of his life at the minute.
The benches
Los Pumas suffered in both tests against the Springboks when the teams rested their starting players. To break even in this match up the Argentine bench will have to step forward because the Kiwi reserves are all capable of starting the game.
But look for 115 kg flanker Marcos Kremer when he comes off the bench for Los Pumas, he has just turned 19 and is one to watch.
Prediction
Argentina faded in the second half of both games against South Africa, and New Zealand is just the opponent who can put them away if this happens in Hamilton. Like the Wallabies the depth of Los Pumas is shallow, but unlike them they can’t use their European players. They can ill-afford to lose Montero, Lavanini or Leguizamon either.
Also their discipline breaks down when things go wrong; yet the Kiwis lift when they’re in trouble.
All Blacks by 10.
Argentina – winners last time out
Team Lists & Details
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New Zealand
1. Joe Moody
2. Dane Coles
3. Owen Franks
4. Brodie Retallick
5. Sam Whitelock
6. Jerome Kaino
7. Sam Cane
8. Kieran Read (c)
9. Aaron Smith
10. Beauden Barrett
11. Julian Savea
12. Ryan Crotty
13. Malakai Fekitoa
14. Israel Dagg
15. Ben Smith
Reserves:
16. Codie Taylor
17. Wyatt Crockett
18. Charlie Faumuina
19. Luke Romano
20. Ardie Savea
21. TJ Perenara
22. Aaron Cruden
23. Anton Lienert-Brown
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Argentina
1. NT Chaparro
2. Agustin Creevy (c)
3. Ramiro Herrera
4. Guido Petti
5. Matias Alemanno
6. Pablo Matera
7. JO Desio
8. Facundo Isa
9. Martin Landajo
10. Nicolas Sanchez
11. Santiago Cordero
12. JM Hernandez
13. Matias Orlando
14. Matthias Moroni
15. Joaquin Tuculet
Reserves:
16. Julian Montoya
17. Lucas Noguera
18. Enrique Pieretto
19. Marcos Kremer
20. Leonardo Senatore
21. Tomas Cubelli
22. SG Iglesias
23. Ramiro Moyano
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Details
Date: Saturday, September 10th
Venue: FMG Stadium, Hamilton
Kick-off: 19.35 local (17.35 AEST)
Referee: Craig Joubert
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner, Marius Mitrea
TMO: George Ayoub[/one_third]
