Aussie teams were 1-3 against South African teams last week and 1-0 against a New Zealand team. This week there are two games against the Saffers and one against the Kiwis, plus an Oz derby.
Highlanders v. Reds
The Highlanders will be aching to get a win at home after losing three of them already this season and not winning their one game away either.
The Reds, who have never won a Super game away against the Highlanders, will want to get a good start, get the foot on the throat, slip in the knife, and get out of town before the locals get hold of them.
Last week: The Highlanders had a cunning plan to run the Chiefs off their feet because the Tribe had just returned from South Africa and had to be tired, they thought. The Clan had all kinds of good stats in the first half but were losing at oranges, and couldn’t score a point in the second.
The Reds had good periods of attack and made the Bulls miss tackles but they couldn’t finish off the oddly selected Bulls’ team and could have lost the game on the bell.
Team changes: The Highlanders scrum should benefit from the return of veterans Myth Woodcock at LHP and Andrew Hore at hooker, but form winger Kade Poki has to rest his injured ribs.
Because of injuries to Digby Ioane and Chris Feauai-Sautia, the Reds will have have two new wingers: Dom Shipperley and Luke Morahan. Liam Gill returns from injury, as does Rob Simmons, whilst the worthy Ed O’Donoghue goes to the bench.
The Plans: The Highlanders will probably discard the helter-skelter rugby they launched against the Tribe. They will still run a lot but they will also get back to some basic rugby, which should include folks passing the ball properly and others catching it.
The Reds will be looking for the Highlanders to run at them more than the Bulls did. If they want to deny the Clan quick ball they will have to commit more players to the ruck than they did last week. I think it will be just as well that the Gillster will be playing in this game.
The Match-up between the two bad boy blindside flankers, Jason Hoeta of the Clan and Ed Quirk of the Reds, should be like watching Fight Night. Hoeta is no Adam Thomson, the Clan player most missed in 2013, but he can be a big pain in the arse for opponents; and we all know Mad Eddie.
Opponent to watch out for: Winger Hosea Gear has been one of the few performing Highlanders but he hasn’t been getting the ball enough. The Reds should stop him, and fullback Ben Smith for that matter, getting the pill.
Prediction: I’m not sure about this. Despite recruiting Nonu, Thorn and Hore, the Highlanders haven’t won a game this year, though having so many injuries in the forwards hasn’t helped. The Reds haven’t been that great but have managed to win games. Also, the Aussies should benefit from the second week of the Genia-Cooper combo, Horwill playing in his second week and the return of Gill.
But the Clan are not quite as bad as a 0-4 team should be, and and have to come good soon; so, at home – Highlanders by 3.
Brumbies v. Bulls
The Brumbies have just returned from a tour of the RSA, which is always challenging, but they would have been given a light work load during the week. The Bulls will be looking forward to heading home and trotting out their laager rugby game one more time.
Last week the Brumbies got a wake-up call from a Stormers team that played their best rugby of the season.
The Bulls played better than I thought they would against the Reds and nearly won the game on the bell with one of their few forays in the match. It serves them right – they should have tried it more.
Team changes : Scrummie Nic White is fit again to play for the Brumbies, but fullback Jesse Mogg has not yet shaken off a shoulder injury.
The big surprise is that 20 year-old South African, Eteinne Oosthuizen, now resident in Australia, will start in the second row replacing Sam Carter, who drops out of the match-day squad. Scott Fardy will be the other lock instead of Peter Kimlin, who moves to the blindside flank. Fotu Aulea is rotated to the bench to make room for him.
As expected Scott Sio goes to the bench after starting in two games in the RSA; so Ben Alexander starts at LHP.
The Bulls chose a goofy team last week, partly because of the customary rotation that South African teams use on their long tours, but it’s back to a normal team now: Morné Steyne, the kickmeister, is back in the starting team as is Juandré Kruger, the lineout boss.
Ace winger Bjorn Basson is injured again and amongst other changes, Bulls’ coach Ludeke is giving ace youngster Jan Serfontein his run-on debut, at inside centre.
The Plans: The Brumbies won’t change the way they play a lot even though they will know the Bulls will play their laager game. But their discipline will have to be better than in Cape Town because the Bulls game plan is predicated on getting into the opposition half and kicking goals – or forcing errors in the opponent’s half and pouncing.
Also, the Brumbies would have practised stopping lineout drives in their 22.
The Bulls won’t plan for everything different. They are good at doing what they do and this week the kickmeister is starting. He will know that the Brumby with the biggest boot, Jesse Mogg, will not be playing, so he will be seeking territory profit for the Bulls in the kicking transactions.
The match ups: Rugby is not a one-on-one sport but the comparison and contrast between the Bulls’ assassin, Deon Stegmann, and George Smith, wherever he plays, will be of high interest.
Opponent to watch out for: rising star Jan Serfontein will be starting in his first Super game and there will be many more to come. The Player of the Tournament in last year’s IRB Junior World Championship, he scored the winning try in the final. He’s a big lad and there is a bit of Jaque Fourie about his play.
Prediction: The Brumbies to bounce back from their loss against the Stormers – Brumbies by 12.
Cheetahs v. Rebels
The Cheetahs are fine, thank you, and want nothing more than playing their brand of rugby and winning games more convincingly by reducing their error rate.
The Rebels won’t say so but they will be in disarray after their thrashing last week in Durban and the appalling incident between Beale and Vuna, two of their best players. If that were not enough they will have to confront a Cheetahs team that won three of their four games overseas, and is playing better than in any time of their history – and you can toss in the Cats’ years for good measure.
Last week the Cheetahs took most of their chances in Perth whilst snuffing out Force efforts by defending their goal line and around the rucks. The return to the run-on team of Heinrich Brüssow from a long-standing shoulder injury was also key.
The Rebels had no answer to a Sharks blitzkrieg, which was launched in response to something similar dished out to them by the Brumbies the week before.
Team changes: Although the Cheetahs have just returned from their overseas trip and must have been tempted to rotate some of their players, they are retaining the same match-day squad to keep their momentum going.
The Rebels chose Richard Kingi to start on the wing to replace Cooper Vuna, who was stood down. In a time of adversity coach Damien Hill was bold and chose two fine 21 year-old starting debutants: Jordy Reid who replaced Scott Fuglistaller on the openside flank, and Paul Alo-Emile who replaced Laurie Weeks at THP.
The Plans: The Cheetahs to keep playing their brand of attacking rugby and to count on the Brüssow scare factor to suck more attacking Rebels into the rucks than they normally would.
The Rebels have to get off their heels on defence and make sure they get off their defensive line together.
Opponent to watch out for: Cheetah blindside flanker Pieter Labuschagne, who played some for the Cheetahs last year after a storming 2011 Currie Cup campaign, but is now one of the form players in 2013 Super Rugby. He has stepped up his performances with his fearless tackling, strong running and relentless industry. Sometimes it appears that he has a twin on the park.
Prediction: The Rebels will be on a hiding to nothing but they should remember the old adage: You never know how strong you are until being strong is the only choice you have – but, Cheetahs by 25.
Waratahs v. Force
The Waratahs will be looking for their Holy Grail – a good start to a Super Rugby match. They will be searching for a back-to-back victory also, which will be better than finding an Easter egg.
The Force will be ruing another game that got away last week and will have to remember what they did in their last away game, in Brisbane. They should be thinking of how they got their victory in Sydney last year as well.
Last week the Waratahs had two tries put on them early by random events, which have afflicted them too often in recent times, but give them credit for coming back from 14 points down at oranges.
The Force played some some good rugby intermittently against the Cheetahs, but could not convert several good chances into points on the scoreboard. Neither did they attend to Heinrich Brüssow at the breakdown very well either.
Team changes: Scrummie Brendan McKibbin has recovered from injury, so the Waratahs were able to name an unchanged run-on team. Hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau is also fit now and was named in the reserves.
The Force have lost hooker Nathan Charles for the year, so either Heath Tessman or Ben Whittaker will take his place. (Other changes to be advised.)
The Plans: For the Waratahs, telling them during the week that they have to get a good start on Sunday would not have been enough. They would have been told to be like Goody Two Shoes around the ruck so that they won’t supply so much territory, too many chunks of possession, or as a result, too many points, to their opponents.
If they can thereby get off to a good start they will be able to apply pressure rather than have to absorb it, and their confidence will grow earlier than it has in other games.
Hopefully they will plan to execute some more imaginative restarts which should include haring after the ball and putting pressure on clearing kicks. A few good throws to the lineout would be an interesting concept also.
They will know that they will have to match big engine players like Cottrell, Brown and McMeniman up-front also.
The Force should have planned to ban risky rugby in their own 22 and get more men to the breakdown when Hooper and McCutcheon are around, because too much ball was poached from them last week. They should also make more conservative lineout calls until the thrower gets confidence. More patience and discipline near the opponents’ goal line would be in order also.
The match-ups: Converted inside centre Rob Horne versus rising star Kyle Godwin will be an absorbing contest. The scrum battle will be interesting too. So will the lineouts be – which one will be less bad?
Opponent to watch out for: The Tahs have to watch out for Alfie Mafi who is in the form of his life. Not kicking the ball to him would be a good idea. The Force have to beware of different poacher this week, Michael Hooper – and the Tahs’ scrum.
Prediction: The Force are a lot better than a 1-4 record would indicate, but the Tahs should be able to beat them in Sydney, for a change – Waratahs by 8.
