Preview – Aussie matches in Round 13

Blues v. Rebels

Still behind the Chiefs in the NZ Conference, the Blues are gradually running out of weeks and have to put the Aussies easy-beats away and with a bonus point too. Well, that’s what their fans will be thinking.

The Rebels have nothing to lose and will be a dangerous opponent.

Last week the Blues couldn’t score a try but had a 12 point lead with 15 minutes to go. Then they blinked and Jean de Villiers sliced through them a couple of times for tries. Had Elton Jantjies potted a field goal at the death the Blues could have lost in a similar manner to the week before when the Reds scored a late penalty goal.

The Rebels allowed the Chiefs to score two tries in the first eight minutes of the match and in hindsight that was the winning of the game for the visitors.

Team changes: The Blues make several changes to last week’s starting team including two for injured players: hooker Keven Mealamu (calf) and second-five Jackson Willison (ankle).

Rene Ranger moves from the wing to his favourite centre spot, and Francis Saili returns to the second-five position where he belongs — he struggled defending wider out last week. George Moala is back and returns to the starting team on the wing.

Up front Quentin MacDonald replaces Mealamu at hooker and Tim Perry starts instead of Tim McCartney at LHP. After having a top campaign lock Cullum Retallick is rested and replaced by All Black Anthony Boric. On the openside flank Brendon O’Connor gives Luke Braid some time to rest on the bench.

The big news for the Rebels is that Kurtley Beale has been stood down from the team after breaking the rehabilitation protocols he agreed to. He was expected to start this week.

There are only two changes to the starting team: Hooker Shota Horie runs on so that Ged Robinson can put his feet up on the bench, and Lachie Mitchell replaces Rory Sidey at inside centre.

The Plans: The Blues will have to shore up their midfield defence which was shredded in the last quarter by the Stormers.

In the last three games the Rebels allowed each of the Kings, Crusaders and Chiefs to score two quick tries at the start, then fought back only to lose, though taking the lead in two of those contests.  They have to work on establishing a defensive cordon when they turn the ball over because teams are running through them early.

The Matchups: Neither scrum is stellar, but that will give both packs a chance to get dominance for a change. Look for the Rebels lineout to better than that of the Blues — but only if new hooker Horie can throw accurately. With Moala returning to start after being in Kirwan’s bad books, their back three should trouble the Rebels, big time; but let’s see.

Opponent to watch out for: He’s back to his favourite position; so look for Rene Ranger to slice and dice at centre.

Prediction: The Rebels will be drained after struggling so hard recently and should be unable to come back to threaten to win as they have in the last three games. Despite the changes to the Blues (some due, perhaps, to the table position of their opponents) — Blues by 12

Waratahs v. Stormers

The Waratahs have developed their running game nicely, with such players as Israel Folau making inroads, but they have to work on other things in this game to have a ghost of a chance of making the finals.

The Stormers are second-last in the South African Conference and have to start a comeback on Saturday night.

Last week the Tahs had their biggest win in years, against a team that didn’t show their normal fighting character.

The Stormers had a mixed game against the Blues. They showed poor composure and discipline and looked a beaten team as the penalty goals conceded stacked up; but every now and then they were lifted by individual efforts.

Team changes: The Waratahs name an unchanged starting team but Drew Mitchell and Berrick Barnes return in the reserves at the expense of Tom Kingston and Ben Volavola. Will Skelton is included in an eight-man bench but will likely be omitted as he has been in the past.

The Stormers have kept the same starting side except for De Kock Steenkamp who has returned home after injuring his sternum against the Blues. His run-on spot is taken by Eben Etzebeth who was on the bench last week. Etzebeth had been kept out of Super Rugby until Round 12 because of a long term ankle injury.

The Plans: The Waratahs will ignore the romp at Port Elizabeth and be working overtime on lineout strategies, which were absent at Loftus against the Bulls. They will also be re-visiting their maul defence and exiting from their 22.  Hopefully the goal kickers have been practising also.

The Stormers have already stated that they won’t change much for the game but their kicking from hand will have to be better if they want to get an advantage from their lineout.

The Matchups: On paper, the impressive speed of the Stormers back three, the dominance of its lineout, the form of its midfield and the doggedness of its defence, should give them an edge.

The Waratahs have to pressure the Stormers and also use their good scrum and new-found attacking flair to dilute the advantages of the visitors, so they don’t bear fruit.

Opponent to watch out for: The Waratahs did better against Steven Sykes of the Kings and his lineout team than they did against Juandrè Kruger and his Bulls, but Andries Bekker and his mates will be a higher level of opponent in that area.

Prediction: The Stormers have some good attributes but they are not using them to effect. They have lost five games and are second-last in the South African conference.

The Waratahs are an out of balance team (very good at some things but poor at others) who have also lost five games, and they have just returned from their overseas trip.

But they seem to have the vibe; so at home against an under-performing Stormers team – Waratahs by 5

Team Lists

The team lists for all Super Rugby matches in Round 13 can be seen here.