Preview: Aussie matches in Round 11

The Super Rugby season has had its oranges and is now into its second half.  There are some strong teams in the competition but no one team stands out as the likely winner. 

In the Australian Conference it looks like a race between the Brumbies and the Reds with the roughies, the Tahs, struggling to in keep in contact.

At the end of Round 10 Australian teams had played nine games against New Zealand teams to be 7-2, but in their twelve games against South African teams they were only 3.5-8.5. This adds up to a record of 10.5-10.5 against foreign teams.

There had also been eleven Aussie derby games played.

There will be two games against Kiwi teams, one against a SAffer team, and one Australian derby this weekend.

Reds v. Blues

This should be cracking game because both teams are at the top of their Conference, or close to it, and both like to use the ball and have the players to do so.

Needless to say: both teams have to win to keep their Conference standings, and to put pressure on those next to them on the table.

Last week the Reds stumbled by not taking points that were on offer through kicking penalty goals, and attempted to score tries instead. It didn’t work and they had to settle for a draw. They were frustrated by the referee but they were their own worst enemies in things they could control such as executing the several opportunities they had with ball in hand.

In Round 9, before their bye, the Blues put on one of the best performances by a Super team this year when they smashed the Hurricanes in the Cake Tin and just left the crumbs for the pigeons. Coach John Kirwan would have been cursing the bye.

Team Changes: The Reds team is the same except that LHP Ben Daley and hooker Saia Fainga’a start, with Greg Homes and James Hanson moving to the reserves for a well-deserved rest. Daley is starting in his first game this year after appearing three times from the bench.  He is not a noted scrummager, but nor is his direct opponent, Blues’ THP Angus Ta’avao.

The Blues starting team is the same except that they have demoted centre Francis Saili to the bench for a non-rugby infraction.  Rene Ranger switches to his centre position and Albert Nikoro makes his debut in the vacated wing spot, after playing only two games as a reserve in Super Rugby.

George Moala is omitted from the matchday squad for an off-field matter.  He was expected to return to the run-on XV following a suspension from the Hurricanes’ game for foul play in Round 8.

Unheralded hooker James Parsons keeps his no. 2 jersey despite the availability of old stager, Keven Mealamu. The official story is that the All Black mainstay is being eased back, but it is more likely that Parsons is playing too well to be benched.

The Plans: The Reds were out-coached and out-captained by the Brumbies and will have to plan better this week. The Blues type of game should suit them well – and vice-versa – but I wouldn’t mind betting that McKenzie comes up with something perverse and keeps the ball in the forwards in the first half to impair the Blues’ efforts.

The Blues will just want a re-run of their last game when they suffocated the Hurricanes and several of their players were in dynamite form.

The Matchup: Their performances will depend on that of their forwards, but the contest of the scrumhalves Will Genia and Piri Weepu, back to good form this year, should provide a masterclass for young no.9s watching the game.

Opponent to watch out for: In the Blues’ last match 22 year-old Steve Luatua had a virtuoso performance in nearly every aspect of the blindside flanker’s game including a near-miraculous holding-up of the ball over his own line.

He must be firming as an alternative to Liam Messam for the All Blacks and if he bends the line more he could become the long-term replacement for Jeremy Kaino, who the Kiwis missed last year.

Prediction: If the Blues are allowed to play like they did last week they could beat any team anywhere, but the Reds will give no such allowance.

If the Reds have recovered from their physcial battle against the Brumbies they should be too strong in the forwards and blunt the brilliance of the likes of centre Rene Ranger and fullback Charles Piutua.

At home – Reds by 8.

Brumbies v. Force

The Brumbies could not extend their Australian Conference lead over the Reds last week and need to be fresh after a bruising to put away the Aussie battlers from the west.

The Force usually play a couple of Jack The Giant Killer matches in the season and having beaten the Crusaders two weeks ago, will be looking for their second such game.

Last week the Brumbies had a draining game at Suncorp where they defended their line as brave as Trojans and as cunning as Private Baldrick. Their skipper massaged referee Jackson to just within the bounds of propriety and the team got out of town with two points; thank you ball boys, linesmen and referee.

The Force had yet another game with chunks of merit in it but they weren’t big enough chunks to beat the Hurricanes at home.

Team changes: The Brumbies retain the same starting XV from the Reds’ game except that Dan Palmer is rested and Scott Sio runs on as LHP. But there are positional changes: Ben Alexander moves to THP to replace Palmer, and Ben Mowen and Fotu Auelua swap places, with Mowen moving to 6 and Auelua to 8.

Pat McCabe stays on the bench because Matt Toomua has recovered from the head knock he got at Suncorp last week.

For the Force, ace 20 year-old inside centre, Kyle Godwin, returns to the starting side after resting a week and Junior Roselea returns to his customary outside centre position.  Winston Stanley returns to the reserves.

In the forwards Salesi Ma’afu is recovered from an inflamed knee and displaces Tetera Faulkner.  As usual the backrow plays musical chairs and this week Ben McCalman replaces Angus Cottrell.

Winger Alfie Mafi, who was on the bench last week, is stood down for breaching team standards.

The Plans: The Brumbies should have had an easy week to recover from the battering at Suncorp. They will do nothing out of their ordinary play: get into Force real estate then attract defenders close in and go wide when they do: a sort of Bulls’ war plan without so many bombs in it.

The Force game is constrained by their personnel. If their tight-five was more imposing, their quality backrow would have more effect, but, especially since McMeniman has been absent, the “loosies” have had to become tight-loose forwards.

They also lack enough rainmakers in the back line to expect them to make something out of nothing.

Therefore expect the Force to have a narrow game and rely on scrummie Alby Mathewson to provide individual brilliance which others like Kyle Godwin or Junior Roselea can latch onto.

The Matchup: This is another game where the battle of the scrumhalves will be interesting: Ex-All Black Mathewson who scored a stunning try at the Cake Tin last week, up against second-string Aussie scrummie Nic White. Worth a watch.

Opponent to watch out for: The form winger in Aussie teams this year, Henry Speight, did not get many opportunities last week but the Force had better keep an eye on him come Saturday – just ask the Highlanders.

Alby Mathewson, mentioned earlier, is one of the best Super buys of the season. If he concentrates on his game and doesn’t let maul or ruck ball die because of not “using” it, he will be a wily competitor for the Brumbies.

Prediction: The Brumbies to recover from their bashing at Suncorp and to take a narrow Force game in their stride.  Methinks there will be some boring rugby played in this contest, which the home team won’t mind – Brumbies by 10.