Wales
Wales have been in rather ordinary form since their Six Nations win in 2013, with only a win over a disorganized France standing out in this period. Their record under Warren Gatland is very boom and bust and they’ll want to get some consistency in their play this November
The mental
To put it simply Wales’ record against the big three under Wazza is shocking (one win in 2008), and for all his talking up of his players they’ve been routinely slapped down by the Southern Hemisphere. Gatland has worked very hard on convincing the public that they can beat a SANZAR team however you get the feeling that his players don’t really believe it. With less than a year to go to the World Cup they’ve got to actually beat one of Australia, South Africa or New Zealand if they are to convince anyone of their World Cup credentials.
Fading Stalwarts
Wales’ recent success has always been built around a rock solid set piece (Adam Jones), defensive solidity and discipline (Dan Lydiate), physicality (Mike Phillips), goal kicking (Leigh Halfpenny) and getting over the gain line (Jamie Roberts). Due to differing factors, natural decline, ill advised moves etc, these five vital cogs in the Welsh machine are either struggling for form or cut altogether. Can Gatland either get these players back to their best fitness and skill wise in two weeks or find replacements at terribly short notice? He’ll need to if they are to have any chance of winning more than one of their games.
George North – Wales’ best player
George North
Wales are very regimented and disciplined in how they go about their business on the field. The one player who doesn’t always stick to the game plan is North. He is probably their only player who’d make a legitimate claim for a place in a World XV and is a match winner at every level. They need to get the ball to him in space as much as they can as often as possible. There is talk of him moving into the 13 jersey permanently, as he has done for Saturday’s test against the Wallabies, however his defensive short comings would be exposed here and he wouldn’t have as much room to operate, and cause havoc in.
Ones to Watch
Samson Lee – Lee replaced Adam Jones early in the South Africa tour and looks to be Wales’ number one tighthead coming into the series. There is a huge responsibility on this young man’s shoulders, every significant Welsh victory of the past eight years has been off the back of a dominant scrummaging performance from Jones. Having seen Lee shunted around the park by some average-at-best packs in the Pro12 and in the European Cup I fear for Lee in the international arena. That said he looked like there could be potential there in South Africa, if he can lock out the scrum in this series he could claim the 3 jersey going into the World Cup.
Sam Warburton has the ability
Sam Warburton – Warburton is the vegemite of home nations rugby. Punters either love him or don’t rate him at all. As much as he has been an impressive captain he has frequently been underwhelming in the international arena, however he has occasionally produced a world class performance that show the ability is there. Gatland hasn’t been backing him 100% in public recently and you feel that if he wants to captain Wales into the World Cup he needs a big November personally and for the team.
Dan Biggar – The Welsh struggle to find a ten who can take them to the next level has been no secret. Gatland has been a reluctant selector of Biggar, who has been one of the top 10s in domestic European rugby in recent years. If Biggar can bring his domestic form to the Welsh jersey the national team will have a playmaker capable of taking them a much needed win over one of the top ranked sides.
Expectation
Unfortunately for the men from the Valleys this could be a long four weeks for them. I can only see them beating Fiji, unless there are spectacular turn around in form for a number of key players. Gatland also needs to show more tactical flexibility, his game plan has become stale and predictable, they don’t have the players or the skill to use it to beat any of the SANZAR nations.
Scotland
New coach new dawn? Or more of the same? Vern Cotter finally takes charge of Scotland and there is a lot of pressure on him going into the series.
Backrow Selection
Cotter has left out Kelly Brown and Johnny Barclay from his squad. Both have been playing some decent stuff this year in the European Cup and in their domestic league, but in a Scottish pack that has been regularly out muscled over recent years can he afford to leave out two proven performers? There is high hopes for London Irish flanker Blair Cowan as a 7 and Cotter will be hoping to use his ball carrying and pilfering ability over the next month.
Scotland scrum – not enough quality props
Front Row Depth
Vern Cotter simply cannot afford any injuries in his front row. There are few Scottish qualified props that are capable of playing international rugby at the moment thanks in no part to Edinburgh’s South African import fetish. If Euan Murray goes down the Scots will have to use Geoff Cross who has featured once this season for his club. Things aren’t much better on the loose head side with Ryan Grant still injured and whilst Scotland do have some fit hookers they are all woefully out of form.
Midfield Defense
It has been a feature of Scotland’s play over the past few years that they routinely get cut open in midfield. They have to develop some defensive steel, a team in Scotland’s situation should focus on making themselves hard to beat. When you are giving up line breaks down your 10-12 channel all game this just isn’t the case. Cotter needs to get his inside backs to watch “Braveheart” before each game. They can not keep surrendering the gain line so meekly.
Ross Ford – needs to improve lineout throwing
Ones to Watch
Richie Gray – Gray is an enigma, he was touted by many as being the great white hope of Scottish rugby however a move to the England Premiership saw his form plummet and he has struggled ever since. He has too much natural ability not to come back as one of the top second rows in the Northern Hemisphere and Scotland need to get him back to his top form. On his day he is near unplayable and his country needs him at that form over the next few weeks.
Kieran Low – A controversial selection who has been favoured over Kelly Brown needs to repay the faith shown in him by his new coach. His job will be simple he needs to use his big frame to secure Scottish ball and disrupt the opposition. This is a big step up for the English born-and-raised flanker and Scotland will need him to settle quickly into his task.
Ross Ford – To put it simply Scotland aren’t going to make many inroads without a strong set piece. Ford needs to get his lineout throwing back a level which saw him selected for the Lions. This is a tough ask as he has been poor in this area for a number of years however with Cotter now in the scene he will be more demanding of his set piece than his predecessors. Ford must hit his jumpers/
Expectations
Two wins would be a superb autumn for the Scottish; their whole series depends on an opening weekend game with Argentina. The Scots will be targeting this one for a win. However I just don’t think they have enough quality to trouble the Argentines and I see only a solitary win in this series for them.
