LIONS THREATS AND HOW TO COUNTER THEM – CENTRES AND MID-FIELD ATTACK

How Will The Wallabies Deal With These Threats?

Roberts is a big man at 1.93m and nearly 110kg – he generally plays a very direct game in attack but don’t be surprised when he also shows the subtle skills he has. Plan A though will be route one with Roberts bearing down like a steam train on James O’Connor and whoever the Wallabies select at number twelve.

The Lions will be well aware how Tom Carter and Pat McCabe ran over the top of James O’Connor in Super Rugby in 2012 when he was defending at number twelve for the Rebels and they’ll want to test him in defence early. The Wallabies backrow will have to help defend the 10/12 channel to counter this threat.

Number Twelve

I expect Robbie Deans will also select a defence orientated number twelve to help O’Connor. Berrick Barnes is an option but I think he’ll either play at fullback or be on the bench as a utility player. Despite the fact that Christian Lealiifano is the form number twelve in Super Rugby and hasn’t shown any defensive weaknesses the international experience of McCabe and Rob Horne will get one of them a start over Lealiifano.

The starting player depends on whether McCabe is fit enough to be selected in the final six players in a little over two weeks time but Deans will not have forgotten his defensive heroics in the past for the Wallabies and I expect he’ll be preferred if he’s fit. Horne’s play at number twelve for the Waratahs this year has been good and I expect he’ll start if McCabe isn’t fit.

Jamie Roberts presents an opportunity for the Wallabies when he’s in defence. He’s a good, strong tackler when a player runs at him but if there are multiple potential ball runners and he has to make a decision about which player to take or the ball carrier uses some footwork, he can get exposed (as can most players).

The Wallabies would be best to use decoy runners and a ball playing twelve with good footwork to try and isolate Roberts – that should be Lealiifano in my opinion. Unfortunately, regardless of whether McCabe or Horne starts, I think they’ll be asked to play a very direct role in attack – going hard at the defensive line to get the ball over the advantage line to set up the next phase rather than aiming to create a line break on the current phase and this plan won’t test Roberts. If McCabe starts he will have to improve his body height in contact or the Wallabies will be vulnerable to the Irish ‘choke’ tackles that have caught them out in the past.

Number Thirteen

Adam Ashley-Cooper will be the Wallabies number thirteen. He is clearly the best outside centre in Australia and, despite his versatility, now that Michael Cheika has left him to get settled in that position we’ve seen some really good form from him.

Defending at number thirteen can be very difficult as you’re normally on the end of the defensive line with your winger hanging back a little to cover a possible kick. If you commit to defending the wide channel too early, an inside pass can expose you – if you focus too much on the inside channel, you’re at risk of being beaten outside. The way to deal with the threat is often to back off and force the ball carrier to either run across field trying to get around you or to pass the ball to the wide supporters who you can then drift across to.

It’s also a position that takes a bit of time to get into the rhythm of defending in. Fortunately Ashley-Cooper has been playing there week in and week out so I expect he’ll be good in defence.

Brian O’Driscoll is very good at backing off in defence and forcing the ball carrier to make a decision so Ashley-Cooper can’t make the mistake of running across field – instead he needs to go straight at O’Driscoll and commit him before passing the ball to his outside supporters who’ll then have some space to operate in.

The Bench

One of the back reserves for the Wallabies will be Lealiifano – the other will be dependent on whether McCabe and Kurtley Beale play (which I expect they will). If they both play I think the remaining back reserve will be Barnes – between he and Lealiifano they can cover the widest number of positions – that would mean Horne misses out.

If McCabe doesn’t play I expect Horne will start at number twelve. If Beale doesn’t play I expect Barnes will start at fullback. If neither McCabe nor Beale play a specialist back three player will take the remaining bench spot with Lealiifano whilst Horne and Barnes will start.

Until we know what’s happening with McCabe and Beale it’s hard to be definite with back line selections, however regardless of what happens with those two I think Barnes and Lealiifano will both be included in the match day squad.

Tomorrow I’ll finish the series by looking at the back three players for each team.