Author: Brendon Shields

I have had the fortune this season of being able to capture data on most schools, club and elite-level games here in Brisbane, and for that I specifically need to thank the guys at Doubletake Sport, who offer a world-class broadcasting service for community rugby. The reason for this study is my belief of a direct and irrefutable link between how schools and clubs play, and the type of player that is ‘selectable’ at elite level. Let me explain using a metaphor: A great plate of food How an elite team performs in a match is like a plate of…

To understand why the All Blacks are so dominant, and why for example the Wallabies have been struggling, we can use the metaphor of a steakhouse. Put simply, the All Black restaurant makes more money because they sell a better quality beef and pair the meal with better wine. How a generation of rugby players gets developed through the pathway of their career, will ultimately determine the quality of product that the national coach gets to work with, just like some restaurants get to serve a superior product of meat, so that no matter if it’s cooked (coached) the same…

As expected, the flow and quality of Super Rugby AU picked up remarkably in week 3 as was the case in the New Zealand Aotearoa competition. Week 3 also provides us with enough data to properly compare the two competitions and spot the areas where Australia are still lacking a bit. To do so I want to focus on two metrics this week: The Exit rate We slice the field into 4 zones, and then study where you start and end each play. For example Australia during the 2019 World Cup had the best exit rate of all Tier 1…

Last week I introduced the idea of ‘efficiency’, where we assign a value to a team’s ability to move up-field, keep possession and score points. Being able to measure efficiency allow us to zoom in on each specific attack or defence platform to see how team’s are performing. Lineout and Lineout choice So this week I want to zoom in on the lineout, because it is quite simply the most important platform in the modern game. Not only are lineouts the set-piece that occurs most – it is also used most often by team’s as a means to set up…

It’s good to be back, and this time we are in a position to apply some proper analytics to our game and see if rugby in Australia is indeed on the upward curve we all hope it to be. I want to therefore introduce our readers to a few new analytical concepts we use at Rugbycology to better understand team performance. These will be used weekly in this new segment on Green and Gold Rugby, and I hope to convert you all into stats nerds over the next few weeks. Spectacle ratings In our context it’s never good enough to…

Up in Queensland there is something brewing. I am not sure if the fans just WANT to believe that their team’s fortunes are about change, or whether between the 4 lines a revolution is indeed being manifest. It is therefore worth our while to look at the Red’s current form and study their performance between the four lines in relation to their 3 last opponents, from the Sharks to the Bulls, with their trip to Christchurch sandwiched in-between. To study the Reds’ form, I will look at how ‘efficient’ they are, using my rugbycology method. To measure a team’s efficiency,…

I have been tracking team’s attack performance during the World Cup to see how team’s approach this aspect of the game. The Wallabies I am happy to report, play rugby union differently to any other team at the showpiece. Firstly, we are the team who kicks the least. Against Uruguay we only kicked 28% of our possession, whereas most other teams kick around 45% and upwards of their ball. The ball-in-hand strategy seems to work, because currently the Wallabies are the team who enjoy’s the third most forward momentum, which is basically a measurement of how a team is able…

Well let me say from the outset that Saturday’s result was not really a massacre. I will present a few bit of analysis that hopefully back up my point. Oh and thanks for the guy’s at Green and Gold for not telling me that in Oz the term ‘rock-spider’ refers to a peadophile. I spent most of last week batting that wicket on social media. The good news For the third week in a row, the Wallaby’s fundamentals were sound. We slipped a line-out on our own feed near the death, and we lost ‘that’ scrum to a penalty, which…

I do not want to be seen as a rock-spider now coming out to have a dig at New Zealand while they are lying down. In fact I will start presenting this analysis with a graphic that shows New Zealand still doing the basics so well: The above shows how Australia launched their 43 attack raids. While New Zealand conceded too many handling errors, turnovers and even an intercept, they did not give away a single controllable set-piece. They are still ruthless and still get those basics right! Now cast your eye to the ‘Field opposition kick’ – a statistic…

61,241 people rocked up to watch a rugby union game in Perth. Only Ed Sheeran has seen this kind of support in the city, and the Wallabies did not disappoint. The 47-26 win now etched in the record books as the most points any Wallaby team has scored against the All Blacks. It was not all great, with Australia never dominating the breakdown and the All Blacks still scoring 2 second half tries while a man down. First Half (16-12) In the first half Australia launched 27 attacks, yet lost the ball 10 times. With a few minutes until half-time,…

I have a data-set of under 19 level rugby that this week counted its 700th game. This resource gives me the privilege of being able to spot an outlier statistic, or to capture when a team starts doing things differently. Yesterday at Brisbane Boys College I witnessed something very different – and something that made my heart sing with the kind joy mostly reserved for rainbow parades. Have a look here: I measure this wide play because the skillset required to pull it off is fairly advanced. Team’s who play this way must develop in their players quick hand-speed, as well…

The following is a range of statistics that shed some light on the Wallaby performance last night. To put the data into context I compare some metrics with the All Black’s performance against South Africa. Both teams scored 16 points, even though Australia had 43 attack opportunities against New Zealand’s 37, so the ‘points per platform’ metric is easy to calculate: Point per platform explained Often teams play poorly, yet still win. Other times they lose while seemingly playing a great game. To better grade performance, we look at the amount of attack opportunities you create and how many…

It’s long been said that you select your tighthead prop first. The assumption was that you will commit so many handling errors that you will be scrumming a lot under pressure and therefore require steadiness at this vital set-piece. As a researcher of school’s rugby I see a different picture unfold at this level of the game. Firstly, in school’s rugby you have a 9% chance of winning scrum ball off an opposition feed. This is based on well over 1000 games measured. Secondly, you are not allowed to move an opponent backwards more than 1.5 meters. So while a…

I have for a long time been perplexed at the vast difference between how schools run their academic program versus how they run their sports program. Let me give you an example: Kid A is studying biology. Each day he receives theoretical tutoring in the subject, which he later has to practically implement during experiments and assignments. After the term his knowledge of the subject is tested during a thorough exam. Throughout his school career, everything he does is measured and assessed to ensure that he develops sufficiently in every subject. However when it comes to sport, hardly anything gets…