Preview – Aussie matches in Round 15

After Round 14 Australian Super Rugby teams had played 15 matches against New Zealand teams for a success rate of 53%, but in their 19 matches against South African opponents they were winning just 39% of them.

This means that Aussie teams had a record of 46% against foreign sides.¹

This weekend there are two games against Kiwi teams and one against a SAffer team; there is one Aussie derby match also.

Rebels v. Waratahs

In Round 14 the Rebels beat a South African side for the first time in twelve attempts, and without their stars James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale too. In the past they have not used their intermittent unexpected victories to build on and they will have to do so in Round 15 to make the win against the Stormers mean anything.

After the results in Sydney and Bloemfontein last week the Waratahs are six points away from the Reds, the Aussie second placed team, but they are only three points behind the overall sixth-placed team, the Blues. To keep these pipe-dreams alive the Tahs have to keep winning; have to.

Last week the Rebels got out to a 10-0 lead then usual programming resumed when the Stormers nudged ahead. But unlike in other games, the Rebs kept pressure on their opponents to the end and earned a penalty try with six minutes to go, and won.

Against the Brumbies the Waratahs tried to exit from near their own goal posts by running the ball but had two tries scored against them in the first half after a charged-down kick and a dodgy lineout. Berrick Barnes was influential in breaking the Brumbies’ shackles when he came off the bench after oranges and the Tahs scored three tries to put the Brumbies away.

Team changes: Scrummie Nick Phipps, who energised the Rebels in the second half last week returns to the starting side and will pair up with fourth-string flyhalf Bryce Hegarty.  James O’Connor is still not fit to play.

In the forwards the only change is that Luke Jones returns to start in the 2nd row, replacing Cadeyrn Neville.

For the Waratahs, 21 year-old scrummie Matt Lucas has his first Super Rugby start giving Brendan McKibbin a break on the bench.  Berrick Barnes plays inside centre, for only his second run-on game of the year, displacing Rob Horne .

In the pack John Ulugia subs at hooker for Tatafu Polota-Nau, who broke his arm against the Brumbies, and Sekope Kepu is rotated in at THP for Paddy Ryan. Lock Kane Douglas has been cleared to play but winger Cam Crawford is still not ready; so the electric Peter Betham starts the game again.

The Plans: The Rebels have to convert more of their possession into points than they did in the first half last week. Also, they would have noticed the success of the Waratahs out wide in the second half against the Brumbies and should not get too narrow in their defence.

The Tahs were passive at the breakdown at the start of the season, then improved, but regressed against the Brumbies last week as the ACT lads came wading through rucks without an invitation. The Tahs will have to get their starch back against the Rebels who gave as good as they got against the Stormers.

The visitors won’t change their attacking game because they won’t expect the Rebels to get off their line as quickly as the Brumbies did. But they will have to improve their lineout because it is going from bad to worse, to worser.

The Matchups: The Tahs should have the edge in the scrums on paper, because the Rebels’ LHP can’t scrum that well in my book, but how will it work out on grass? The Rebels should own the lineouts because the Tahs are donating a few these days. The matchups of the 9s, 10s and 12s — all of different styles and experience levels from their opponents — will be interesting in contrast.

Opponent to watch out for: The Rebels will have to shut down Berrick Barnes, who was the Waratahs’ rainmaker against the Brumbies. At inside centre he will play a second five-eighths’ role and there will be no more interested spectator than the Wallabies’ coach.

Waratahs’ Assistant Coach Alan Gaffney praised Barnes and how he had brought into the new system:

Berrick’s got that thing in his mind now: it’s run first, kick second which may not have been necessarily the case previously […] He loves it; he’s keen to keep the ball in hand; he plays a lot better with the ball in hand.

The Waratahs will have to stop Scott Higginbotham before he gets up to full pace. After a slow start to the season Higgers is in the form of his life and is hard to contain even though he is closely marked.

Prediction: The Rebels self-belief would have taken a giant leap after breaking down the famous Stormers’ defence system last week, but the Waratahs have never lost to them and have a bit of belief themselves; therefore — Waratahs by 10

Blues v. Brumbies

The Blues have slipped below the Crusaders to third in the NZ standings after losing to them in Round 14, and are in the banana-skin sixth position in overall ranking. This game could define their season.

The Brumbies have lost their overall lead in the tournament but are still at the top of the Australian Conference, thanks to the Cheetahs who beat the Reds. This game could be a watershed for them also.

Last week the Blues went down to a professional Crusaders’ outfit who were brutal at the breakdown and knew better how to win in wet weather. When the Blues got behind and chanced their arm with their ace ball runners to catch up, they made errors in the conditions and fell further behind.

The Brumbies traded possession for territory and got a dividend of two tries in the first half after a charged-down kick and a dodgy lineout from the Waratahs. But after oranges they left spaces near touch three times for three Tahs’ tries and got the result they deserved for their negative play.

Team changes: The Blues transfer feisty second-five Francis Saili and his left-foot step into the starting side, replacing Jackson Willison, who was in the 1st XV last week.

Rising star blindside flanker Steve Luatau is omitted because of a neck injury and the Blues field a second specialist opensider, Brendon O’Connor, in his position.

The Brumbies starting team is the same as last week except that openside flanker Colby Fainga’a replaces the injured legend George Smith.

The Plans: If there is one thing the Blues should change it’s the discipline of their second rowers: Cullum Retallick is indiscreet too often and skipper Ali Williams sets a poor example. They will also have to improve their kick-chase and get their balance between running and kicking right.

The Brumbies won’t change much because like the Bulls, they are confident that their negative method of play will get them good results and you have to concede that they are annoyingly right, most of the time.

They will also have noticed the success of the Crusaders in driving the maul for a try against the Blues last week and take that on board.  And here’s a tip: if they are going to kick long, they shouldn’t do it in the direction of the Blues’ fullback.

The matchup:  The midfields are as different as chalk and cheese: it will be the excitement machine of Francis Saili and Rene Ranger against the control of Christian Leali’ifano and Tevita Kuridrani.

Opponent to watch out for is the Blues fullback mentioned. Jesse Mogg can run with the pill but Charles Piutau is even better because he does more after contact using leg drive and a skier’s balance. This bloke is an elite player and will probably be an All Black this year.

Prediction: The Blues don’t lose many at home and if the weather was going to be fine for the game I would have backed them to win because of their fine attacking backs: Piutau, Haili, Ranger and F. Saili.

But the Auckland weather forecast for Saturday night (as I write this) is for rain and if that forecast prevails and the Blues play like they did in Christchurch in the wet last week, they will lose.

The Brumbies play a dour style and a wet game will suit them because they live in the clouds anyway — Brumbies by 5