Yes, it’s a team effort yadda yadda, but there are a few performances that we can speculate may influence this match more than others. With that in mind here are my top three face-offs for this Wallabies vs Lions second test.
O’Connor vs Sexton
“Well what a surprise, the fly halves will be important” I hear you think, you sarcastic bugger. Sure, but there’s a bit more pressure on this battle than usual.
About to start in only his third test ever at 10, I cannot imagine more pressure being piled upon James O’Connor – unless of course the second playmaker knocks himself out in minute one again. Biebz has been widely criticised for his game management as he basically abdicated his first receiver role last week.
Having sealed the win in Hong Kong 2011, we’d all assumed these Gen-Yers had balls of steel, but looking at his kicking yips and overall performance last week, that clearly isn’t always the case. We did get flashes of his brilliance in the first test, but as Richard Graham pointed out in our podcast this week, that was running off Kurtley Beale, not the other way around.
It was a different story for Jonny Sexton. He showed good flashes of his playmaking ability – deft chip kicks and the crucifixion of Michael Hooper at 12 for Cuthbert’s try. Usually a solid defender, he got laid bare by Izzy Folau and looked a little hesitant otherwise, causing us to ask just how far off 100% fit he is.
Mowen vs Lydiate
With a garbled backline and 14 points missed through kicks, the question last week for the Wallabies has to be “So how did we get so close?”. A lot of that was down to overdue Wallaby debutant and Brumbies Captain Ben Mowen. Mowen’s swarming defence had Mike Phillips begging for “mercy, mercy please” (geddit?) and he was a marauding menace at the ruck. On top of this the Wallaby line-out he was calling took 5/5 and it was his quick hands that gave Izzy the space for his wonder try.
The test this week will be whether he can step up in the line-out and orchestrate disruption of the Lions ball. This one act upon a team performance could secure victory for the Wallabies, it is that important.
Facing off against him is Dan Lydiate of Wales, who’s had a slow burner of a tour. Where the Welshman doesn’t have that freakish explosive pace out wide of Croft, he’s a menace at the breakdown, perhaps even more deadly than Warburton on the captain’s current form. On top of that these two know how to play as a pair – watch Lydiate scythe players down through the ankles to set up Warburton the jackle.
Gatland has bet the house on the wider breakdown, eschewing a replacement lock for a second backrower. Deans has done the opposite, sticking with an underdone Palu and retaining Simmons on the bench. It’s hard not to think this selection battle will be crucial.
Beale vs Halfpenny
“What, no Izzy?” your thoughts once again interrupt. No – I’m just assuming he’ll do a handful of man of the match winning miracles as per usual.
Therefore my differential here will be at fullback. For the Wallabies the only way is up from Berrick Barnes’ performance in the first half last week. It was gut-wrenchingly woeful. My field of vision was behind him as he hoisted that uncontested directionless car-bomb from just outside his own 22 to George North. As it left his boot the world went into slow-motion for me, so obvious was it that a disaster was about to unfold.
And actually, despite his dazzling run, Beale’s performance overall wasn’t one to write home about. As Scott Allen’s analysis this week highlighted, Beale did a lot of tucking the ball under one arm space-eating out wide, when there was a certain guy called Folau needing just 30cm to create magic. Forget the final kick, Beale also missed an absolute howler from 28 metres out with five minutes to go. I expect more from Gilbert, and I think we’ll get it.
On the other hand, perfect little Leigh Halfpenny hasn’t put a foot wrong, has he? No, I’ve got no reason to believe he should in this match, but if he doesn’t stuff-up soon I think we’ll need to get the IRB citing commissioner involved to check whether he’s being assisted in his kicking by coach Neil Jenkins behind him with see-though wires. Or just whinge about it anyway.
Overall
This is a close call, as the line-ball result showed last Saturday. However, I believe that out of the two teams, the Wallabies have more room for improvement than the Lions. Australia left 21 points on the torn up Suncorp grass last Saturday – 14 from missed kicks and 7 from a try running through a flanker at inside centre.
Having said that, we’ve still not seen any of what the Lions showed they were capable of through the rest of the tour.
This makes you want to say it’ll be another close one, but perhaps it actually means that given the right start and bounce of the ball, one of these two sides is going to cut loose on the scoreboard. I’m going to say that team will be the Walabies, but without strong conviction.
