Week two semi-finals weekend, and after a great first week I’m fizzing for the semi-finals. Should be two great games with narrow margins. It will be easier to enjoy without a dog in the fight.
Referees and our perception of them
The Crusaders offside 9 makes tackle, play on.
After the Reds game on Friday, it’s fair to say the craperazzi were popping off. I was leading the charge with some intemperate language (thankfully in a safe space and won’t be made public). I looked around social media after the game and without exception the losing team’s fans say the referee caused the loss. After Bris’s excellent piece on Monday I thought I’d run the numbers.
The issue is rugby is the one sport where almost every part of it is up to the referee’s interpretation and as such the person who runs the show will have a large say on the style and flow of the game. My view is that all people have unconscious bias based on experience, upbringing and environmental factors. I thought I’d challenge my bias and run the stats. Bias is defined as a predisposition for or against something that prevents objective consideration. As a fan I’m happy to state that I’m biased, but can be swayed by numbers.
Are the referees biased based on the numbers on the basis of where they come from? So far in Super Rugby 2025 there’ve been 80 games played. Just looking at the penalty counts there’s no discernible difference between home and away with 717 being awarded to the home team across all games and 718 to the away side. The home teams scored 2579 points to the away teams’ 2025, so there’s a 554 points difference with home team advantage.
For the purpose of the next element I included Moana in the New Zealand group and Fiji in the Australian group. There’ve been 30 games played between teams from either side of the ditch. Of those games 13 have been refereed by the New Zealand group of BOK, James Doleman, Paul Williams, Marcus Playle and Angus Mabey. 17 games were refereed by the Australian contingent of Nic Berry, Angus Gardner, Damon Murphy and Jordan Way.
A couple of interesting trends came out of the data on cross
| NZ Team Penalties | AU Team Penalties | ||
| NZ refereed games | 13 games 11 to NZ teams and 2 to AU team | 120 | 140 |
| AU refereed games | 17 games 7 wins NZ and 9 wins AU 1 draw | 160 | 157 |
So is the discrepancy a style thing an adjustment thing, a reputational thing or a bias thing?
Another fun fact is that only two teams had 8 home games this year: Chiefs and the Crusaders.
Reds and Hurricanes Team Review
I will look at the beaten qualifying finalists and give my judgement against my expectation of them.
Queensland Reds
Season score 6
Regular season record 8 wins 6 losses
Season high: probably the home win against the Blues.
Season low: Fiji away was a game they should’ve won.
I cannot give the Reds above a 6 as I think they finished on about a par. The facts are they paid a heavy price this year with injuries, but still dropped some games they shouldn’t have.
Going up against the Saders in the final they were missing 7 regular game day members of the 23. Having the third string 10 medically retire, losing the back up the week before to HIA and losing the game day 10 to HIA is always going to make life difficult. Sometimes people use injury as an excuse and sometimes it’s a reason.
Hurricanes
Season score 6
Regular season record 8 wins, a draw and 5 losses
Season high: win against the Brumbies in Canberra. Cracking game
Season low: probably the draw against the Force. But it was the turning point of their season.
I think the Hurricanes will ultimately be disappointed in the season, they also had injuries early but had troops come back late and seemed to be the hottest side coming into the finals. They ultimately will look at a couple of losses, say against Moana or in round 3 against the Blues when they should’ve done better.
Super Rugby semi-finals
Friday 5:05 pm AEST – Crusaders v Blues at Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch,
Sit back and enjoy a game where it’ll be a shit show at the breakdown, similar to last week. Expect James Doleman to do something Doleman-like, but at least it’ll be Kiwi on Kiwi crime so it could be anything. I think the Blues won’t live with the Crusaders speed. Surprisingly, the weather people are saying cold, windy and rainy.
Saders by 10 and go to 31 and 0 in finals.
CRUSADERS (1-15): George Bower, Codie Taylor, Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett, Antonio Shalfoon, Ethan Blackadder, Tom Christie, Christian Lio-Willie, Noah Hotham, Rivez Reihana, Sevu Reece, David Havili (c), Braydon Ennor, Chay Fihaki, Will Jordan
Replacements: George Bell, Kershawl Sykes-Martin, Seb Calder, Jamie Hannah, Cullen Grace, Kyle Preston, James O’Connor, Dallas McLeod
BLUES (1-15): Joshua Fusitu’a, Ricky Riccitelli, Marcel Renata, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Laghlan McWhannell, Adrian Choat, Dalton Papali’i, Hoskins Sotutu, Finlay Christie, Beauden Barrett, Caleb Clarke, AJ Lam, Rieko Ioane, Mark Tele’a, Zarn Sullivan
Replacements: Kurt Eklund, Jordan Lay, Angus Ta’avao, Josh Beehre, Anton Segner, Sam Nock, Harry Plummer, Cole Forbes
Referee: James Doleman Assistant Referees: Paul Williams, Fraser Hannon TMO: Richard Kelly
Injuries
Blues
- Cam Christie (thumb)
- Stephen Perofeta (leg)
- Reon Paul (shoulder)
- Cam Suafoa (medical/season)
- Ofa Tu’ungafasi (neck/season)
- Sam Darry (shoulder/season)
Crusaders
- Tamaiti Williams (knee/TBC)
- Finlay Brewis (shoulder/season)
- Taha Kemara (knee/season)
- Dom Gardiner (foot/season)
Saturday 5:05 pm AEST – Chiefs v ACT Brumbies at FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton,
This’ll be a cracking game with two teams who can play, it would’ve been a worthy final. I wonder what the narrow loss to the Blues will do for the Chiefs. As mentioned on the pod last week they haven’t had many close games so could get the yips if it’s tight late into the game. Weather forecast says it could be dryish.
I’ll take the Brumbies in an instant classic.
CHIEFS (1-15): Ollie Norris, Samisoni Taukei’aho, George Dyer, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Tupou Vaa’i, Samipeni Finau, Luke Jacobson (c), Wallace Sititi, Cortez Ratima, Damian McKenzie, Leroy Carter, Quinn Tupaea, Daniel Rona, Emoni Narawa, Shaun Stevenson
Replacements: Brodie McAlister, Jared Proffit, Reuben O’Neill, Jimmy Tupou, Kalyum Boshier, Xavier Roe, Josh Jacomb, Gideon Wrampling
BRUMBIES (1-15): James Slipper, Billy Pollard, Allan Alaalatoa, Nick Frost, Tom Hooper, Rob Valetini, Rory Scott, Tuaina Taii Tualima, Ryan Lonergan, Noah Lolesio, Corey Toole, David Feliuai, Len Ikitau, Andy Muirhead, Tom Wright
Replacements: Lachlan Lonergan, Lington Ieli, Feao Fotuaika, Lachlan Shaw, Luke Reimer, Harrison Goddard, Declan Meredith, Ollie Sapsford
Referee: Nic Berry Assistant Referee: Damon Murphy, Jordan Way TMO: Brett Cronan
Injuries
Chiefs
- Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (shoulder/TBC)
- Simon Parker (ankle/TBC)
- Josh Lord (concussion/TBC)
- Manaaki Selby-Rickit (toe/short-term)
- Liam Coombes-Fabling (hamstring/short-term)
- Anton Lienert Brown (collarbone/mid-term)
- Malachi Wrampling (hamstring/mid-term)
- Kaleb Trask (hamstring/mid-term)
- Sione Ahio (ankle/long-term)
- Rameka Poihipi (knee/season)
Brumbies
- Charlie Cale – (back/TBC)
- Austin Anderson (jaw/2 weeks)
- Lachie Hooper (MCL/2 weeks)
- Harry Vella (knee/TBC)
- Blake Schoupp (Achilles/8+ months)
Hoss will be back tomorrow with his pearls of wisdom.
