This is the battle for the bottom of the Australian conference. But don’t let that fool you, this may well be the match of the round! This is the oldest rivalry in Australian Rugby and it’s set to go off on Saturday night.
This game is a bit of a paradox. Just about any discriminator (bar a few) you care to use will have the Waratahs as almost unbackable favourites in this match. They are the defending champions playing last years also rans. The last two games resulted in the Tahs handing the Reds sound thrashings and a few free lessons in Rugby. The Tahs boast 9 starting Wallabies in their First XV compared to the Reds lowly 2…. But….
There is an unquestionable feeling of nervousness coming from south of the Tweed and a strange sense of optimism rippling out from Ballymore which is evidence of one thing. The traditional grudge match in Australian Rugby is never a sure thing. Many a time has the favourite gone home empty handed.
I could tell you that in the last 10 games it’s 5 wins a piece or that in the last 5 games the Reds have a 50% win ratio at home and a 66% win ratio in Sydney. I could tell you that in recent history the Reds have scored less points but scored more wins regardless. I could tell you these things but at the end of the day this match up can’t be confidently predicted on data so I’d like to instead take a look at some of the delicious match ups across the park.
So here then, are the key match ups.
A Kiwi, A Saffa and an Aussie fly into a ruck…
In a game where the battle up front will be key, the effectiveness of each side’s backrow will go a long way to determining the ultimate winner. I think most people would take a backrow of JacPot, Hooper and Palu over Thomson, Gill and Schatz any day of the week but I don’t think this suggests that there is a gulf between them in terms of ability working as a unit. The Tahs trio will be more aggressive and abrasive but they will need to be because the Reds three will be hard on the ball all night.
I’ve compared the backrow as units simply because even though they are fairly similar as a group, individually they are quite different. JacPot and Thomson are both exceptional players but both clearly have different styles and will impact the game differently. I won’t even start on Gill vs Hooper and if anyone really wants to get into that then they should head to the Hooper vs Pocock thread on the forum. Lastly Schatz vs Palu are again chalk and cheese but both extremely effective in what they are tasked at doing.
The Front Rows
The match ups in the front row could be all battles for the ages. With the Wallaby coach watching from the stands, there is going to be all sorts of shenanigans going on up front. The current Wallaby props will be facing off. Slipper and Kepu should know each others game inside and out so this little game of cat and mouse will be very interesting.
On the other side, two ex-team mates will be going head to head. Robinson the old dog will be up against the up and coming Sam Talakai. A strong performance in this game will be critical if either has any aspirations on coming close to a RWC spot later in the year.
And in the middle we have the incumbent Wallaby hooker, Saia Fainga’a coming up against the guy he replaced through injury, Tatafu Polota-Nau who will be determined to make a statement to take his jersey back.
The Halves
The current Wallaby halves pairing will be lining up for the Waratahs on Saturday night. They are quire obviously the benchmark for other Australian halves. Genia and O’Connor though are no mugs. Arguments on whether O’Connor should even be considered a 10 aside, there is no doubting the guy’s remarkable skill set. Genia’s recent return to form too makes for an exciting battle with Phipps.
Overall
I’m expecting this game to be a real fight up front. Both teams will be keen to gain the edge in the collision and break down early. I think the Reds have the players to nullify the Tahs impact at the break down to some degree but they don’t have the players to dominate making for a real arm wrestle. In the backs, the Reds will need to find some structure in attack and will also need to find some way of getting the ball to players like Feauai-Sautia and Kuridrani; a 10/12 combo of O’Connor and Faingaa will make that difficult as neither tend to pass as their first option. If the Waratahs can find some of last years cohesion then I think they could well be too good for the home side but so far they have struggled. The smart money will be on the Tahs, but I’m tipping the Reds in a close one.
Reds v Waratahs
James Slipper 1 Benn Robinson
Saia Fainga'a 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau
Sam Talakai 3 Sekope Kepu
Dave McDuling 4 Will Skelton
James Horwill 5 Dave Dennis
Adam Thomson 6 Jacques Potgieter
Liam Gill 7 Michael Hooper
Jake Schatz 8 Wycliff Palu
Will Genia 9 Nick Phipps
James O'Connor 10 Bernard Foley
Chris Faeuai-Sautia 11 Rob Horne
Anthony Fainga'a 12 Kurtley Beale
Ben Tapuai 13 Matt Carraro
Chris Kuridrani 14 Peter Betham
Lachie Turner 15 Israel Folau
Reserves
James Hanson 16 Tolu Latu
Ben Daley 17 Jeremy TIlse
Sef Faagase 18 Paddy Ryan
Marco Kotze 19 Sam Lousi
Curtis Browning 20 Mitchell Chapman
Nick Frisby 21 Stephen Hoiles
Sam Johnson 22 Brendan McKibbin
Campbell Magnay 23 Jono Lance/Taqele Naiyaravoro
Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar 19:40
Referee: Glen Jackson
Assistant Ref 1: Rohan Hoffmann
Assistant Ref 2: James Leckie
TMO : George Ayoub
