It’s the second last week of the comp. It’s neck and neck. Two teams will advance to the Grand Final and two teams will start their break early. Regardless, here’s our Super Rugby tipping preview for the semis.
There was no movement on top of the tipping ladder over the weekend but it could’ve been very different had the Highlanders been able to close out the game against the Sharks. Both of our competition leaders, The Rhumdoggs and Braveheart81 put their joker on different horses but at the end of the round it didn’t matter.
I wouldn’t normally expect to see a lot of movement in the tipping from here on in, but this weekend could have our top tippers scratching their heads. With the burden of being leader weighing heavily on them, they must play it safe so you can count on them tipping Crusaders and Waratahs with the Joker on the Kiwi’s. BUT there are more than a few reasons to tip the Brumbies this weekend and potentially grab the lead.
SF1 – Crusaders vs Sharks
The last time these two teams met was in Christchurch in round 14. For those of you don’t remember it was on the 17th of May and it was opposites day. What transpired was one of the strangest games of Rugby I have seen in some time. It was the most un-Crusader like performance I have ever seen from the Cantabs and was almost straight out of the South African Rugby Textbook. They scored the bulk of their points in threes while the Sharks on the other hand, despite losing Deysel in the 17th minute scored three tries which included one in the 76th minute while they were actually 2 men down to close out the match.
There are no guarantees in finals Rugby but I am here to tell you now, that this weekend’s game will not go the same way. Here’s why.
In round 14 the Sharks were flying high after their dream start to the comp while the Crusaders were struggling to find form and still recovering from their exceptionally poor start to the season (13th place after 7 rounds).
In terms of recent form, the Crusaders have a 75% (6-2) win ratio for the second half of the season while the Sharks are on 50% (4-4). Lets not forget that the Crusaders have never lost a play off match at home. Never.
In Wednesday’s Rugby News a South African sports scientist was already making excuses for why the Sharks won’t win but using their logic, the Highlanders were the deserved winners in Durban. I’ve been saying all season that the Sharks aren’t as good as they look and this weekend will be the proof of that. It will be a tight game I’m sure but I’m so confident that the Crusaders will be booking into yet another Super Rugby Grand Final that I’ll put my Joker on it.
SF2 – Waratahs vs Brumbies
Many Australian Rugby fans were dreaming that this may be the Grand Final but alas it was not to be. One thing is for sure though and that is both teams will be treating it as a grand final. These two teams have met twice this season. In round 5, the Brumbies caught the Tahs napping and raced out to a 20-9 half time lead. Despite playing nearly the last 20 mins one man down they managed to nab a win and a broken door on the coaches box. It was a different story in round 17 with the Waratahs juggernaut gathering momentum and outclassing the boys from the capital in a 5 try to 1 thumping. So how are they tracking now?
The Waratahs are on a 7 game winning streak and whilst they maintain they are yet to put in a ‘complete performance’ they have been devastatingly good on average scoring 35.5 points and conceding only 15.8 points per game for the last half of the season. The Brumbies on the other hand have scored on average 26.6 points and conceded 27.1 points for the same period with a win rate of on 50%. Long story short, over the full season the trend for wins is on the up with the Tahs and heading down for the Brumbies.
Looking at the scoring and the wins in isolation though is one thing, but it’s impossible to gather in statistics how a team goes about their Rugby. The Waratahs, I think we all will agree, have been great with the possible exception of the set piece in recent games but with two weeks to prepare for this game, there should be a marked improvement here also.
The Brumbies have had a look of a team that is capable of a lot more than they are producing. Just looking at the team sheets and it’s hard to split the two teams so why are their actual results so stark in comparison? I’ll have a stab at answering that in one word. Attitude. The Tahs are playing with a confidence that I haven’t seen in Australian Rugby since 2011 but as it did for the Reds back then, it is doing the same for the Tahs now. Impossible balls are going to hand, kicks are inch perfect, players are beating tacklers when they shouldn’t etc.
Last week, while playing for their survival, I saw a big shift in the Brumbies. They had pumped the Force the week before and it’s as if that win had flicked a switch. The 50/50’s started coming off. Sure, it may have been only for some fairly uncharacteristically poor decisions by the Chiefs that saw the Brumbies progress to this week but the signs are there.
The Brumbies forwards will be relishing taking on the Tahs in the set piece as the Reds did two weeks ago, and if guys like White, Toomua and Speight carry on their form from last week, the Tahs may end up the bridesmaid once again.
As I said at the start, the safe bet is to tip the Waratahs. I think the Brumbies can do this though and will be putting my tip on them.
