The tipping this season has been as tough as I’ve seen it since, well, ever. The competition is so tight that really just about every game is a two horse race so to speak. The historically good teams are struggling to eke out regular wins, the traditional also-rans are beating the big names more often than one might expect and the upsets are becoming less surprising.
Last Week
Not a lot of movement on the tipping ladder this week with the Rhumdoggs consolidating their spot at number one in the GaGR league and is one point adrift on the overall standings. FYI Rhumdoggs, I’m not doing anything the weekend of the Sydney Bledisloe. Just sayin’! Denis O is going well in second and then there’s a log jam of 7 punters all battling it out in third.
Tough As Teak
I never thought I’d see the day that I’d read the next sentence in print, let alone be the guy writing it but…. The toughest game to tip this week will be the Lions vs the Crusaders. The harder I looked the harder a decision on who to tip was to make. Normally when 4th place takes on 13th, you wouldn’t need to wait for the thinking music, but at least one of the Lions wins shouldn’t have been and plenty will tell you that another should have gone the other way as well thanks to some dubious officiating.
The Crusaders are in one hell of a hole but it’s almost impossible to shake the feeling that any second now they will ‘click’ and we will see the Crusaders of old start clinically dismantling oppositions. The Lions win/loss ration against the Crusaders is 4:12 and their last win was in 2007. On those stats alone, the Crusaders will be hard to go past. The game is being played in Johannesburg though which is probably worth an extra 9-12 points for the home side with their ability to kick goals from 60m out. You’ll get little help from me though – I may have even confused you more. Good luck with this one!
The Hurricanes and Bulls fixture also had me stumped for a while. The Cane’s form has been a bit hot and cold while the Bulls seem to be slowly building. Head to head the recent games have gone all one way with the Bulls winning the last 4 on the trot, both home and away and you can bet the lads from Pretoria will be filthy with letting their lead slip away against the Chiefs on the weekend. I still haven’t worked out whether it was the Canes or the Crusaders on the weekend that made the Hurricanes look so good but one thing is for sure, they can score points out of nowhere so their opposition better bring their A game in defence. My head says Bulls but my heart says Hurricanes.
If your’e looking for a roughy, to try and jag an ‘upset’ and climb a few spots on the ladder, the Rebels are not being heavily tipped so far with less than a quarter of you backing them to roll the Highlanders. While the Highlanders are probably deserved favourites, the Rebels have shown time and time again that they can beat anyone on the day. The Highlanders too have shown that they can lose games that they really should win. The games between these two are usually high scoring affairs so whichever team takes their chances will take this game out.
You’ve Got To Be Joking!
Anyone who reads this article will know that my luck with the Joker the last couple of weeks has not been great but from the feedback I’m getting, I’m not alone. I’m feeling good this week though. I’ve crunched the numbers, analysed the form and can confidently give you the good oil.
Looking purely at the tipping stats, both the Brumbies and the Reds should be good candidates for your Joker to beat the Blues and the Force respectively. 89% of tippers are on the Brumbies and 86% are riding the Reds train. In reality though both of these matches could go either way. The Blues boast an 11 and 7 record over the Brumbies and have been able to put plenty of points on them on plenty of occasions. Not one to put your house on and nor is the Reds vs Force game. The Reds haven’t beaten the Force since their first meeting in 2012 and across all of their games the average points difference is a meager 1.22 points. Nothing in it.
Fear not though, here it is. My lock for the week. This one is a sure a thing. The Chiefs vs the Cheetahs. Put it all on black. The Chiefs showed last weekend why they are the two time defending champs, the way they came back from the abyss to grab a draw against the Bulls was trademark Chiefs. When they get on a roll there seems little that oppositions can do to stop them scoring. The Cheetahs won the first encounter between the two teams in ’97 but since then the Chiefs have won 5 and drawn 2 and the last time they met it was a demoralising 45-3 victory to the Waikato lads. The Cheetahs are 1 and 6 this season while the Chiefs are 3 and 1 with 1 draw. It’s 3rd versus stone cold motherless last.
The thinking music just stopped. Lock in your Joker.
