This year’s Super Rugby competition is proving yet again that it is one of the most tightly contested competitions on the planet. Fantastic for the fans, stroke inducing for the tippers. If you tipped a perfect round last weekend then I think some serious questions need to be asked. For the rest of us though, time to move on and check out what Round 7 has in store.
Upsetville. Population: Plenty.
The first game of Round 6 was a bit of a ‘flip a coin’ fixture but if you managed to tip it correctly then chances are come Saturday night you were possibly sitting on 4 from 4. I know I was, and as the Force and Chiefs players took to the field at NiB Stadium I started counting my chickens. The Chiefs winning was a mere formality and the Sharks were always going to roll the Bulls so all I needed was for the Reds to jag a win over the Lions at home and I was sitting pretty. We all know how that ends so lets have a look who did manage to do well on the weekend.
Tipper Olec deserves a special mention simply for correctly tipping the Force to win. Unfortunately he missed tipping the Highlanders and just missed out on a perfect round. There were quite a few of you who managed all but the Force game so I won’t mention you all, you know who you are anyway (have a brag in the comments if you feel like it) but I will give a big congrats to The Rhumdoggs for once again grabbing the lead. The Rhumdoggs is also tied for the overall lead and also the lead for the top tipper of the period. Cracking effort!
Like I mentioned last week though, this round signals the start of a new period (Period 2: Rounds 7 to 12 inclusive) so we’re all back in with a shot at this mini tipping comp at least!
Tougher than a $2 Steak
Only 6 games this round and a couple of them are a bit of a worry. The Sharks vs the Waratahs will likely be a close affair with injuries to key players in both teams causing a re-think in both camps. Try scoring machine, Israel Folau will miss this game while the Sharks have lost both their halves in Reinach and Lambie. The two teams haven’t played a lot recently but the Waratahs have the advantage in the head to heads; only just. In the last 4 matches going back to 2009, the Tahs have won 3 (2 home, 1 away) and the Sharks 1 (home) with all games being decided by 5 points or less. It will be interesting to see how much the Tahs rely on Folau for point scoring and equally it will be interesting to see how the Sharks cope with losing their halves.
The Bulls host the Chiefs in another interestingly poised match in South Africa. The Bulls not playing great footy, until they toppled the table topping Sharks last weekend, will be keen to maintain their momentum. On the other hand the Chiefs will be hurting big time from their shock loss to the Western Force and will be looking to make amends. Looking at the recent head to heads the Bulls have the clear advantage winning 4 of the last 5 matches between the two teams; some of them were serious spankings too (61-17 and 43-27)! Three of the four wins came at Loftus though which is a notoriously difficult ground for visiting teams to win at and it won’t be any easier this weekend for the Chiefs. The bookies can’t split them and the tipping is close to 50/50 also. The two time reigning champs are hard to tip against but the Bulls at home are always formidable.
Lastly, if you look at the tipping stats then the Reds should just about go down as a Joker candidate with very few giving the Stormers a chance. I think it will be a hell of a lot closer than it seems. The Reds have lost Liam Gill from the forwards and also Feauai-Sautia and Toua from the backs. These players have all featured heavily in the Reds performances of late and will be missed! The Stormers on the other hand are at the end of a long tour and it will be interesting to see how they turn up for this match. They showed a lot of promise against the Brumbies and if they front up like that against the Reds they could easily get the chocolates. The head to head stats are split down the middle with 2 wins (1 home, 1 away) for both teams from the last 4 games. The Reds should be feeling good being back at their fortress and the Stormers theoretically should be pretty weary after a long hard tour. The Reds are probably deserved favourites but I’d think long and hard about this one.
The Joker
Of the remaining three games two probably stand out as reasonable options for the Joker; all three are OK if you look solely at the tipping stats. Personally though, the NZ derbies can be a real lottery and although the Blues should be favourites to beat the Highlanders, this is a game that I am not prepared to risk my Joker on.
One of the other games is also an all Kiwi affair, with the Crusaders taking on the Hurricanes. The Cantabrians boast a 16 wins, 6 losses and 3 draws record over the Wellington lads and will be looking to extend that when they host the Canes this Friday afternoon. The home team will be fresh from the bye and whilst their form this year has consistently fallen short of expectations, they should still be able to get the win over the Hurricanes who are leaking way too many points to be able to beat a team like the Saders.
Your other option and my best bet for the Joker is the Brumbies, who travel to Melbourne to face the Rebels. The Rebels just managed to beat the Brumbies the first time the two teams met but since then it’s been all one way with the Brumbies winning the next five on the trot. The average points difference in these matches is just over 15 points so in the annals of history the relationship has not been a happy one for the Rebels. Some solid early season form from the Rebels has petered out somewhat and the Brumbies train, while slow to start, is building ominously. Add to this that the Brumbies are also welcoming back Wallabies Tevita Kuridrani and Christian Lealiifano and it hard not to like the table toppers in this match up. This is my lock. It’s as good as done. The fat lady has sung.
