With six rounds remaining in the regular season it’s time to fire up the crystal ball for a look at who will, who won’t, and who might yet be playing finals footy.
To recap, there are two Groups, Africa & Australasia, and four Conferences, Africa 1, Africa 2, Australia, and New Zealand. The Conference winners will be seeded 1-4 according to where they finish relative to each other. Even if a Conference winner has fewer points than a non-winner of another Conference, they cannot be seeded lower than fourth.
The Conference winners will be joined in the Quarter Finals by one African and three Australasian “wildcards”, seeded 5-8 according to where they finish relative to each other. Even if a wildcard finishes with more points than a Conference winner, they cannot be seeded higher than fifth.
THE NON-CONTENDERS
As widely anticipated the re-joining Kings & start-up Sunwolves have struggled in their debut seasons and with just one win apiece to date have no chance of making the play-offs.
The other expansion team, Argentina’s Jaguares, came aboard with a squad full of Pumas & were widely expected to do well. So far they, along with the Cheetahs, Reds, and Force, have managed just two wins. These teams, too, will be at home watching the Finals.
THE CONTENDERS: AFRICA GROUP
Stormers – Africa 1 leader: current points 29
Form: six wins, three losses (all by seven or less) & the fewest points conceded in the African Group (158). Points for 248.
Remaining fixtures: Sunwolves (Away), Bulls (A), Cheetahs (Home), Rebels (A), Force(A), Kings (H).
Prospects: will be racking up the air points with visits to Singapore & Australia but should still be good enough to win at least four matches. Bulls shaping as their biggest challenge.
Predicted final points: 53
Predicted seeding: Africa 1 Conference winner
Lions – Africa 2 leader: current points 27
Form: six wins, three losses & conceding almost as many points as they’ve scored (235-268), albeit mostly due to the heavy loss v Hurricanes.
Remaining fixtures: Blues (H), Jaguares (H), Bulls (A), Sharks (H), Kings (H), Jaguares (A).
Prospects: should win all their home games but will struggle away. Bulls away probably their season-definer.
Predicted final points: 48
Predicted seeding: Africa 2 Conference winner
Bulls – Africa 1: current points 28
Form: six wins, two losses & a draw that could yet cost them a play-offs berth. They’ve scored 250 points & conceded 190.
Remaining fixtures: Waratahs (A), Stormers (H), Lions (H), Jaguares (A), Sunwolves (H), Cheetahs (A).
Prospects: will need to beat at least one of Stormers & Lions plus take maximum points from Sunwolves & Cheetahs. Losing to the Waratahs would be a disaster.
Predicted final points: 47
Predicted seeding: African wildcard
Sharks – Africa 2: current points 26
Form: five wins, four losses & a draw that has arguably kept them in the hunt. Second-fewest points conceded by an African team (171) but have only scored 206.
Remaining fixtures: Jaguares (A), Kings (H), BYE, Lions (A), Cheetahs (H), Sunwolves (H).
Prospects: three fairly straightforward home games but two awkward away ones plus the bye to balance it out. Absolutely must beat Lions to have any real chance. Early season draw with Bulls could come back to haunt them.
Predicted final points: 42, not enough to qualify.
Tomorrow I’ll look at how the Australasian Conferences might pan out.
