Super Rugby 2016 – The Road Home: Part 5
Only two weeks till the finals, and for me the top four is now a given and only one spot in the eight is in doubt. That spot will be resolved next week when the Waratahs and Hurricanes meet in Sydney. The Lions are now at unbackable odds to secure top spot and home ground for all finals. That was one result I never would have predicted!
Broken record I know, but the bias towards the South African teams was predicted from the start. The Stormers were guaranteed a home quarter final, their draw was just so full of gimme’s. It is not good for the competition at all.
THE WILLS
The winners of the four Conferences (Africa 1, Africa 2, Australia, New Zealand) will be seeded 1-4 according to where they finish relative to each other & be awarded a home quarter final.
Their opponents will be the next-ranked African & three next-ranked Australasian teams, seeded 5-8 according to where they finish relative to each other: even if a “wildcard” finishes with more table points than a Conference winner, the wildcard cannot be seeded higher than fifth, nor the Conference winner lower than fourth.
The quarter final draw will be:
Seed 1 v Seed 8
Seed 2 v Seed 7
Seed 3 v Seed 6
Seed 4 v Seed 5
Predicted Conference winners
1. Lions, 56
2. Chiefs, 55.
3. Stormers, 51
4. Brumbies, 48. For me, this is the only place in doubt. The Brumbies must beat the Blues at Eden Park to secure the home quarter final.
THE WON’TS
From last weeks list we can now add the Bulls to the wont’s. They are three points behind the Sharks and both teams play the Cheetahs and Sunwolves in the last two rounds. So, its now Kings, Sunwolves, Force, Cheetahs, Jaguares, Reds, Rebels, Blues and Bulls who won’t make the cut.
THE MAYBES
AFRICAN GROUP:
Theoretically, the Bulls could still make the eight and the Stormers take top spot from the Lions. But its a 100-1 longshot. I think the African conference will end up being:
- Lions, 56
- Stormers, 51
- Sharks, 45
- Bulls, 41
All these teams should win their last two games as they face the Kings, Jaguares, Cheetahs, Force and Sunwolves.
AUSTRALASIAN GROUP:
Chiefs – 46: Top of conference, top in group.
Remaining fixtures: Reds (A), Highlanders (A)
Prospects: On paper not so easy with two away games. But the Reds can’t play longer than 60 minutes and the Highlanders will be recovering from their round-the-world roadtrip (Auckland, Johannesburg, Buenos Aries, Auckland, Dunedin). Expect them to win both games with one bonus point.
Brumbies – 39: top of Conference, 2nd in Group
Remaining fixtures: Blues (A), Force (H).
Prospects: Everything depends on breaking the Eden Park hoodoo. If they can’t, then the Waratahs could grab top spot, but I think its unlikely.
Predicted points: 48
Predicted seeding: 4th
Crusaders – 45: 2nd in Conference, 3rd in Group
Remaining fixtures: Rebels (H), Hurricanes (H).
Predicted points: 54
Predicted seeding: 5th
Two wins I expect, one with a bonus point. The last round will be a cracker game, but at home the Crusaders will get there by a whisker.
Highlanders – 43: 3rd in conference, second in group.
Remaining fixtures: Jaguares (A) Chiefs (H).
Prospects: On the roadtrip from hell. Should account for the Jaguares but will lose a close one to the Chiefs.
Predicted points: 48
Predicted seeding: 6th
Waratahs – 39: 2nd in Conference, 5th in Group
Remaining fixtures: Hurricanes (H), Blues (A). A difficult run home despite their recent good form. Rueing the loss to the Rebels which was season-crippling.
I expect them to beat the Hurricanes in a close game and then have to beat the Blues at Eden Park to secure their place in the finals.
Predicted points: 47
Predicted seeding: 7th
Hurricanes – 44: 3rd in Conference, 4th in Group
Remaining fixtures: Waratahs (A), Crusaders (A).
Prospects: I think they’ll be 0 from 2 as both games are away. Both games will be very close and the bounce of the ball will be crucial. Don’t deserve it on the quality of football they’ve played this year, they’d have near topped the South African Group.
Predicted points: 46
Predicted seeding: 9th
PREDICTED QUARTER FINAL DRAW:
Lions v Sharks
Chiefs v Waratahs
Stormers v Highlanders
Brumbies v Crusaders
I would predict wins for the Lions, Chiefs, Highlanders and Crusaders. The Lions are in the box seat but it will be very even from here.
