The Stormers sit in second place on the super Rugby ladder while, to their credit, the improving Reds sit in fourteenth. But that improvement doesn’t make the task that awaits them this weekend look any easier. Sure the Reds lineout and scrum stats are better than the Stormers but in almost every other metric the Stormers lead.
The Stormers score more points, let less in, kick goals at a higher percentage, make more clean breaks, beat more defenders, kick more from hand, make more tackles, have a higher tackle conversion rate, concede less yellow cards, create more turnovers and concede less turnovers than the Reds. It’s not a pretty picture.
Actually if the two teams were pictures the Stormers would be hanging in a gallery somewhere while the Reds would be half finished in an artist workshop somewhere.
If the Reds are to be any chance against the Stormers they’re going to have to be at their very best and win a few key match ups.
Key Match Ups
Rob Simmons and Ben Matwijow v Pieter-Steph du Toit and Rynhardt Elstadt.
Cadeyrn Neville has moved to the bench to make way for Rob Simmons. My guess is that it’s not guaranteed that Simmo can finish the game and Neville is their just in case guy. Pieter-Steph du Toit takes the vast majority of the Stormers lineout. If the Reds can shut him down, and that’s a huge if, it could make a huge, difference to the game. The Reds have a better record as a lineout unit but du Toit has taken more lineout wins than Simmons and leads him 5-0 in lineout steals. Can the Reds win the lineout battle without Jake Schatz? Or will the Stormers big men dominate. I’m looking forward to a humdinger here.
Curtis Browning v Schalk Burger
Jake Schatz, the Reds unfashionable number 8 has majorly rogered his knee and won’t be lacing up his tags any time soon. That gives Curtis Browning the opportunity to test himself against one of the best back rowers of the modern era. Browning has been around the Reds for a few years and besides from the occasional cameo has never been able to nail down a starting spot. Browning should now get a good run at the eight jersey but needs to play out of his skin to keep up with an old master like Burger. On the plus side Hendrick Tui and Liam Gill are in great form and it should be easy for Browning to find his feet.
Chris Feauai-Sautia v ?
Some times I think Chris Feauai-Sautia’s biggest opponent is Chris Feauai-Sautia. Two weeks ago we saw signs of a very good wingers and I finally thought we were seeing the schoolboy prodigy we had all heard about. But last week it was back to the same old same old. I don’t know Chris but I know I want to see more of the F-Sautia we saw against the Highlanders and whatever Matt O’Connor did to get him to play like that please do it again.
Fearless Prediction
As much as I’d like to predict a ‘David’ like victory for the Reds it’s just not going to happen. The Stormers are just too good a team for a Reds team still finding their feet. That being said I don’t think the Stormers can put a lot of points on the Reds. Stormers by about ten.
Teams
Stormers v Reds
Oli Kebble 1 James Slipper (C)
Bongi Mbonambi 2 Andrew Ready
Frans Malherbe (captain) 3 Greg Holmes
Rynhardt Elstadt 4 Ben Matwijow
Pieter-Steph du Toit 5 Rob Simmons
Sikhumbuzo Notshe 6 Hendrik Tui
Siya Kolisi 7 Liam Gill
Nizaam Carr 8 Curtis Browning
Nic Groom 9 Nick Frisby
Jean-Luc du Plessis 10 Jake McIntyre
Leolin Zas 11 Eto Nabuli
Damian de Allende 12 Anthony Fainga'a
Johnny Kotze 13 Samu Kerevi
Kobus van Wyk 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia
Cheslin Kolbe 15 Karmichael Hunt
Reserves
Mike Willemse 16 Saia Fainga'a
JC Janse van Rensburg 17 Sef Fa'agase
Vincent Koch 18 Sam Talakai
JD Schickerling 19 Cadeyrn Neville
Schalk Burger 20 Michael Gunn
Louis Schreuder 21 James Tuttle
Huw Jones 22 Duncan Paiaaua
Brandon Thomson 23 Ayumu Goromaru
Location: DHL Newlands, Cape Town
Kickoff: 23:00
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen
Assistant Ref 1: Quinton Immelman
Assistant Ref 2: Cwengile Jadezweni
TMO : Shaun Veldsman
