I managed 6 from 7 last week and I’ve lost count of the number of people who have asked me if I fluked it. Nope GAGRs, I truly believed all of them would win (yes, even the Blues against the Bulls!). So I’m now sitting at 15 from 21. If I thought last week was hard, this week is even harder!
Much is being made of the Auckland Blues and the Chiefs injury woes. For NZ teams, I tip using the game plans of the teams and where they are playing, rather than who is available for selection. This is because the depth of talent is extraordinary, and injury or suspension to an established All Black allows a super-keen younger player to come through. This means the team gains a heck of a lot of enthusiasm from a player who’s been given his dream shot, without losing the matching amount of skill. We’ve already seen it this year with Bleyendaal in for Carter, and the Chiefs team from week 1, decimated through injury, turning it around in week 2 to play some awesome rugby.
Steve’s selections
Chiefs v Brumbies
The Brumbies are in a massive learning year and they are playing well-above what many would’ve expected from them. Ben Mowen’s captaincy and Steve Moore’s leadership around the park have both been exceptional. But I am tipping the Chiefs here. The Brumbies scrum last week was a weapon, but it’s coming up against a good forward pack featuring Arizona Taumalolo – the young Tongan prop who outplayed Franks in their game at last year’s World Cup. With the majority of the Brumbies points so far coming from the set piece, I think the Chiefs will take away the advantage and have room to move out wide. They were also troubled by the fetchers from the Cheetahs last week, and where the Cheetahs struggled to hold onto the ball from turnovers the Chiefs will be able to take advantage of the turnovers created by Cane and Latimer and make them pay out wide.
Stormers v Blues
We’re starting to see the teams shake into their positions on the ladder based on their true form, and the Stormers are South Africa’s best team at the moment. Bekker has been immense. Even so, the Blues gave me enough last week to tip them again. They have the ability to score tries, and Anscombe is also able to punish for infringements in the attacking zone.
Hurricanes v Highlanders
The Highlanders are playing so hard on the ball at the moment and I think they will do the same to the travel-weary Hurricanes this weekend. The ‘Canes would’ve been relieved to finally make it home after their tour, but that can sometimes make it hard to mentally get up for the next game. The Highlanders are also still playing my BoP connection, and they’ll get the job done.
Waratahs v Force
When I watch the Force play, I see that the backs are playing for the forwards, rather than the forwards playing for the backs. By this I mean that all the backs moves are currently working to get the forwards into the game, so they aren’t turning over much ball, their possession stats look good, but they just aren’t scoring tries. They’re taking the short option and winning the ball back, but they aren’t going wide enough to use their main strike weapon in Nalaga. The Waratahs can punish this on the weekend and I think they’ll get up. But I’m not expecting a pretty affair – as we saw last year, the Force have the ability to upset the rhythm of teams and frustrate them into silly mistakes.
Shorks v Reds
My Souths’ connection Van Humphries and Beau Robinson changed the tempo of the game when they came on against the Rebels last week, and I think their hardness and aggression will be an asset this weekend. Greg Holmes also gets a starting spot – he is arguably one of Australian rugby’ s best scrummagers. The Reds have chosen Harris at 12 and Lucas at 10 in a move that I expect will allow Harris more time, and the chance to run at backs instead of back rowers. I think this is the week that the Reds backline will click. Commentators and fans like to blame the dew on the ball for it’s slipperiness, but sweat is actually worse. If there’s one thing you do a lot on Australian grounds before autumn kicks in, it’s sweat! Durban is very dry and cooler, so sweat won’t be an issue, the ball won’t be so slippery, and a lot of the things the Reds have been trying will start to come off.
Rebels v Cheetahs
I really want to tip the Rebels here, and I’m really happy Kingi’s been given another start at 9 – he added a lot last weekend. But I’m tipping the Cheetahs, who will be better for only travelling a short distance. I think the Cheetahs forwards last week in general play were excellent. Their fetchers get a lot of press, and deservedly so, but I think the entire forward pack works so hard around the park. They got a lot of turnover ball against the Brumbies that they couldn’t capitalise on, but I think they’ll be better this week. The return of Strauss will be good for them, but their slippery winger de Bruyn is a real handful for defense.
Taps’ Tips
A round of 5 from 7 puts Taps at 14 from 21 for the season, just a point behind Steve.
Chiefs
Stormers
Waratahs
Highlanders
Rebels
And of course the Reds
