Who should be kicking points for the Wallabies? JO’C, Cooper, Beale or Giteau?
Request completed! I’ve applied kick difficulty because of the G&GR commenters who wanted them. I’ll dispense with all the background stuff on how this is all done as you can find it here and get into it. Just note I’ve now included all 2011 kicks (that is, Super play-offs, finals and internationals to date) so the Cooper and JO’C charts will look a little different.
It does further reinforce what I said about Cooper’s ability to slot the more difficult ones. I’m pretty sure he was taking them in his area in his shoot-out with JO’C to see who was getting the kicking duties against South Africa, based on the very reliable media reports.
Looking at the Beale kicking chart it is clear that it is weighted towards the kicks with a high probability of success (POS). The Beale chart looks similar to Steyn’s, but the striking difference is Beale is very unlikely to have attempted very low POS kicks.
Comparing Beale’s chart with JO’C shows the POS difference between two kickers. This is either a reflection of the coach, the captain, or Beale knowing his sweet spots. The Beale kicking success was 59 from 82 (72%). Interesting that he had about the same attempts (and success) at conversions and penalties.
Gilbert has the lowest success out of all these kickers in the 0-54% POS. Kurtley has managed to slot 37% of his attempts compared to JOC 59%, Giteau’s 56% and Cooper’s 53%.
Giteau’s charts have a wider distribution than Beale, but Matt is more successful overall than Cooper. He is 89% successful for penalties (39 from 44 attempts). The POS of his five penalty misses were: one at 75-79%; two at 65-69%; one at 60-64%; and his one miss against Samoa (50-54%). This means he was 88% successful at his eight penalty attempts that had a 0-59% POS range. That is pretty impressive. His miss in the 95-100% POS was the fourth conversion attempt in week 3 versus Reds that hit the posts. That is not impressive.
Clearly Giteau has read and listened to the super analysis of G&GR’s Scott Allen, who last year broke down Giteau’s kicks (with a follow-up). Great reads and another reason you should make a donation to the G&GR site [written on his on volition – ed.].
Like Aaron Cruden, Giteau has had a lot of his kicks out in front (36%). This compares to Beale where 22% of his were out in front (JO’C 13% and Cooper 21%). While Giteau is successful in the 0-59% POS, it’s just in the middle (65-79% POS) that it gets a little pear-shaped (as the G&GR readers have pointed out). Again, read Scott Allen’s piece for an explanation. In fact, anything he writes is gold.
One of the things that is clear from just the 2011 kicks is that Beale, Cooper, Giteau and JO’C have the same what I like to call ‘dead zone’. As the name suggests this is an area where the kicks are not successful. This ‘dead zone’ is taking conversions from the sideline and on either side of the field as the record for Beale, Cooper, Giteau and JO’C is about the same.
The ‘desert zone’ is in effect just outside the 22 and from the sideline to the 5 metre line for lineouts (e.g., Giteau’s second conversion attempt against Samoa). This is from both sides of the field. From here in 2011: Beale is 4 from 14; Giteau is 4 from 9; JO’C is 2 from 3; Cooper is 6 from 14. The average from Beale, Cooper, Giteau and JO’C (16 from 40), while a small sample, is much lower than the competition average and POS for these kicks.
The average from Beale, Cooper, Giteau and JO’C in the dead zone is also lower than for the New Zealand National Provincial Competition by year from 2000 to 2010 as well. I just threw that in if you wanted a more tangible comparison! Yup, I have those fields all loaded for POS in Rugby World Cup.
The counter is that in the RWC conversions are less likely as tries are the rarity. Also you can control this by asking the players to score a little closer to the post (memo to Robbie Deans forthcoming). True, but unless a massive step forward in form, hold your breath if there is a conversion chance from the sidelines on either side of the paddock. I did against Samoa when he was lining it up, especially since he scored it. And again, when JO’C was lining up his fifth conversion attempt against South Africa. His third conversion was outside this ‘desert zone’ and in his sweet spot (see final conversion in Hong Kong last year against New Zealand for additional evidence).
Overall though, Giteau is the most consistent, largely because JO’C was given tougher kicks. Should JO’C get injured (last time it was doing a promo, WTF?) then having the back-up options of Giteau, Beale and Cooper is not bad. If Dan Carter went down due to the torrid demands of doing promos, would the All Blacks be feeling as confident in their back-up kickers? The answer is no.
I’ll repeat the exercise after the Tri-Nations and will follow the forum to try and answer anyone’s questions. So if you want another kicker included I will listen to any suggestions.
