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Home»Wallabies»STATS: Blindside by the numbers
Wallabies

STATS: Blindside by the numbers

Matt RowleyBy Matt RowleyMay 29, 2012106 Comments
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According to more than 50% of our polled readers, the most controversial omission from the Wallabies train on squad announced this week was Brumbies captain Ben Mowen.

So the question is – who would he replace? We thought we’d see what the stats said.

Ben’s played a mixture of 6 and 8 so far this season, but as it happens so have those who I believe would be most directly in comparison to him: Dave Dennis, Ben McCalman and Scott Higginbotham.

The first stat I thought we should lead out with is work rate – for the back row this has to be a key metric. Out of all of them, the Big Dog out west probably just shades it. He’s skewed towards attack rather than defence, but that’s probably more in line with the Force’s huge amounts of ball retention.

Probably more interesting though, and an unsurprising theme that comes through most of the numbers – is the difference in Higgers’ stats. The rumour is that Scott plays a wide game and these numbers surely back that up. He hits 40% fewer rucks per game then Ben McCalman, but then he does make more tackles.

(Speaking of tackles, Ben’s completion rate at 80% is the lowest of the four. Dennis tops the group at 89%, closely followed by Mowen at 88% and then Higgers at 84%.)

It’s clear on the graph above that the Reds star also makes makes noticeably fewer runs per 80 mins than the group. Delving into these run metres confirms our prejudices a little more though; Higgers’ runs are drastically skewed towards those in the open, he’s making almost half as many tight runs compared to the other blindsides. Of all the blindsides it would seem Dennis provides the best running balance, managing to make impressive metres in all situations and the most metres overall.

Many (especially the Queenslanders I come across) would argue that there’s a simple justification to Higgers’ outlying stats – he scores more tries, having scored 4 to Dennis’ 2 and Mowen and McCalman’s 1 each.

But just before we assign next year’s Rebel to an outside centre’s jersey, have a look at the line-out numbers. The line-out is still the key attacking set-piece weapon when it comes to try scoring this season. Having more viable options in your line-out drastically improves your chances of scoring tries and applying pressure down the right end of the field.

As such, a third skilled jumper  – especially considering the youth we’re staring at in the lock stocks – will be crucial. It’s a vital role that Rocky has played in the Wallabies for years.

And it’s in this role that Higgers has been excelling this year. Mowen and Dennis also present serviceable options, whereas McCalman is clearly not a regular call choice. A fall out of the best jumper in Australia Nathan Sharpe alleviating the need?

And so, back to our original question – is it obvious who Ben Mowen should replace out of these incumbent Wallabies? Of the options available, the Big Dog is probably most under pressure, simply due to him not offering a target or hindrance at line-out time. It’s not a clear choice though, as Benny Mac clearly has a motor that doesn’t give in to the tough stuff. Dennis and Higgers give good contrasting options depending on the balance required.

Back row’s a tough gig in Australian rugby, who would you choose?

 

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<span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="32880 https://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/?p=32880">106 Comments

  1. Ian on May 29, 2012 10:22 am

    SH does bring out the emotion I have noticed – even in Bob. Nice to see some stats show he does offer something to a pack. I like the fact he didn’t take it too seriously, preferring to drink beer and then falling into it. Also a fan of the beard, not sure about the straggly locks and became very worried when he started to ink himself up. Other than that I think he is a bit out there and I kinda like that in a rugby player.

    Report
    • Fin on May 29, 2012 10:27 am

      we’re picking wallabies not wives

      Report
      • muffy on May 29, 2012 3:25 pm

        So your wife preference is for a bearded, beer drinking space cadet … :) :)

        Report
    • aussie werewolf in london on May 29, 2012 7:36 pm

      Stas don’t lie. Higginbotham is over rated. I hate to say I told you so. (i don’t really)

      Before anyone start saying Higgers should play 8. check these stats which i’ve posted for some to read yesterday.

      *Higgers makes 9.8 tackles per 80min (this article says 10.5), either way Palu makes more ie 11.6.

      * Per 80min Higgers misses 1.3 tackles. Palu misses 1.6 per 80min. A very small win to Higgers between the no 8′s. not bad either way.

      * Palu makes 14.1 carries per 80min compared to Higgers 6.3 carries. That is literally more than double the work rate.

      *Palu’s average metres per 80min is a mammoth 75.7metres (which is absolutely amazing) whereas Higgers averages a good but mortal 35.9 metres per 80mins (this article says slightly less). Regardless again Palu is more than twice as good!

      *Rucks: per 80min Palu hits 11.4 rucks per 80min which is again double higgers… who only gets involved in a disappointing 5.6 rucks per 80min.

      Higginbotham is a bench player.

      Report
      • murph on May 29, 2012 7:51 pm

        zero “pay that”s again…speaking of overrated

        Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 29, 2012 8:02 pm

          I’ve only just posted and besides the majority of bloggers are queenslanders. I could come on here and drone out useless blogs, ‘dah higgers is a queenslander, da he is da best’ …..but i choose to use my brain.

          What say you in regards to Palu v Higgers, Higgers v Dennis now? play the ball not the man!

          Report
      • the realist on May 29, 2012 8:50 pm

        I would also add that Palu has carried for over 50metres in 7 games this years. Higginbotham only 3 occassions yet he has played more games.

        I don’t understand why Higginbotham is being judged as a no 6. He is certainly not a no 6. he is deifinitely a no 8. and a poor man’s Palu at that.

        Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 29, 2012 10:14 pm

          yes i posted that as well yesterday! don’t mind you using my comments but you could of mentioned where it came from?

          Report
      • Eddygiv on May 30, 2012 11:21 am

        Taking stats over 80 seems unfair, Palu rarely plays more than sixty.

        Report
      • Meatsack on May 30, 2012 11:33 am

        * Palu takes 2 weeks to play 80 minutes.

        * Different coaches have different strategies. For instance, Reds will often use their backs to run the ball.

        * When you play a wider game its harder for forwards to get to all the rucks. If your game plan is playing it in tight then of course the forwards can hit more rucks.

        * check the statistics for when they went head to head in round 1. Higginbotham beat Palu across the board in stats.

        I rate Palu, I’d have no problem with him starting over Higgers. But you have a massive chip on your shoulder.

        Report
        • Pedro on May 30, 2012 1:34 pm

          Totally agree. It’s total bollocks taking players averages over 80min. It’s obvious that a player that plays less minutes should have a higher work rate. Also getting subbed at sixty minutes means you’re not playing the often lengthy extra time that doesn’t get included. To summarise, you can’t accurately compare statistics of players that play 2/3 of a game with those that play the whole 80

          Report
        • Dave on May 30, 2012 2:16 pm

          Couldn’t agree more. While these stats are a good indicator it’s ludicrous to say “Stats don’t lie”. They lie all the time. Higgers is a good player who definitely doesn’t play the traditional game, whether at 6 or 8. To judge him on stats that directly compare him to a traditional No.8 who hasn’t played a full 80 is a little unfair. It’s like saying Morne Steyn is a bad fly half because his total run meters aren’t equal to that of other fly halfs. He fills the role asked of him. One only needs to look at Higginbotham around the park to know he gets through his fair share of work and wouldn’t be amiss in a WB jumper. Better than Palu? Don’t know. All I know is having one of them, or even better, both either starting or on the bench would be rather reassuring. And that’s gotta say something.

          Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 5:26 pm

          Ignoring plau’s stas which are twice as good as Higgers is ludicrously deluded and frankly irresponsible in this debate.

          You are in the first stage of inner conflict. Denial.

          But yes Palu plays less game time and still out ‘work rates’ higgers.

          Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 7:05 pm

          Oh did higginbotham have better stats in week 1. Well thats that then. Why did we then bother with all those other rounds? We should have just played the one round and had the next few months off. Good point.

          Denial denial denial!

          Report
        • Meatsack on May 30, 2012 7:19 pm

          @aussie werewolf in london

          I’m not sure you understand my points. Different game plans and teams will place different duties on a position and stats can be cherry picked to support a position.

          If I were to stoop to your purely stats based argument style, how about these stats:
          Higgers vs NZ 50%
          Palu vs NZ 25%

          Higgers in TriNations 75%
          Palu vs TriNations 35.7%

          Higgers wins twice as much as Palu! Lets totally ignore the teams around them!

          Palu is the main forward runner for the Tahs, Horwill is the main one for the Reds, they play different positions but take up the role because that is what the coaches asked. Your idea of what a 6/8 should do is different to Deans/McKenzie and there is nothing wrong with that. Though you can’t directly compare the two styles with stats alone.

          Report
        • Meatsack on May 30, 2012 7:22 pm

          Um we use round 1 as a good example as the two blokes we’re talking about were playing the same game! That means the rucks were in the same places for both blokes to get to and the tempo was the same.

          Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 9:14 pm

          Its a team game. You can’t use stats like higgers v nz. thats idiotic!

          you are really clutching at straws

          Report
        • Meatsack on May 30, 2012 9:37 pm

          @aussie werewolf

          did you not see in my post
          “Lets totally ignore the teams around them!”
          If you can’t see that for the sarcasm it obviously is… I’m done discussing this with you.

          At least you’ve now realised its a team game, now you just have to realise that teams play the game differently and we may have something.

          Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 10:19 pm

          I doubt any test team’s tactics that involves one of their backrowers playing like a fairy will cut it.

          Report
  2. Willus on May 29, 2012 10:28 am

    I would be inclined to say that it depends on who else is in the backrow. One could only assume that Pocock would be 7 which covers your pilfering, workrate, excellent tackle completion, general pestering play ETC.

    The 8 should be a tight-running wrecking ball, particularly off the back of the scrum. With our scrum being somewhat of a weak point we would need whatever experience and power we can get at the back. So I would think that the 6 should be in direct contrast to this, which is in my opinion Higginbotham. If we have McCalman at 8 then I don’t see a problem with Higgers at 6, especially noting McCalman’s workrate, a wide-running blindside is something we could probably afford to have as he could present a very real threat given his handling skills, pace and size.

    The type of plays that Higgers comes up with can be quite unique at times too, if anyone remembers that chip&chase then offload that he gave to Giteau against Samoa last year then you’d know exactly what I’m talking about. That sort of skill coupled with his size would be able to attract a lot of defenders leaving a lot of space in the inside channel.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Report
    • RockyElboa on May 29, 2012 3:59 pm

      Remove McCalman and add Palu and I would agree with you
      I would also say it is horses for courses, it is great to have two very different 6s (Higgers and Dennis) to choose from and will allow us utilise each against different opponents
      However I don’t trust Deans to make the right choice

      Report
  3. RugbyNoddy on May 29, 2012 10:39 am

    I don’t think you can make a decision for 6 in isolation. To me a balanced backrow is key. Playing Palu and Higgers together is a worry, from a workload perspective.

    For the Reds, Higgers works because you either have two opensides (Beau and Gill) aside him or a work horse like Schatz. Further, Daley, Faingaa/Hanson and Slipper do a great deal of tackling as well.

    Mowen has a high work rate because he needs to cover for Fotu. Dennis, because of Palu.

    In the end, Pococks going to be the 7. The 8 and 6 need to be picked as a unit. Ying and Yang so to speak. I’d be wary about Higgers and Palu. McCalman at 8 with Hiigers at 6 might work well. Or Palu at 8 with Dennis or McCalman at 6, with Higgers of the bench.

    If the stats show anything it shows Mowen should be in the squad, but perhaps Dennis is the lucky one to be there?

    Report
    • commonasmud on May 29, 2012 12:47 pm

      Noddy – that’s probably a bit harsh on Palu. As pointed out on another thread by Werewolf, big Cliffy actually got through a mountain of work in 60 mins on the weekend, and quality work too. He’s rounding into the sort of form we expect from him, just in time for the tests – nice! Agree with the overall comments here about balance in your backrow, and assuming we have Pocock doing the grunt work over the ball, and Cliffy working in tight, then you can probably afford to have a Higgers working it out wide.

      Report
    • Barbarian on May 29, 2012 2:10 pm

      Funny Reg I thought the opposite. Dennis’s stats are very good, certainly the equal of the other three. He seems to have a good mix of work in tight, good defence and metres in the open.

      But in reality all four have very similar numbers, and you could argue about who is better until the cows come home. So you are left to look at things like the elusive ‘x-factor’, as well as their record in big games. At the moment I’d suggest Higgers deserves to start but the pressure is such that if he doesn’t put in a big effort in the June tests he may find his position gone by August…

      Report
    • murph on May 29, 2012 6:52 pm

      McCalman has a big heart and a high work rate but he’s ineffective
      That’s a quality stats can’t measure

      Report
      • the realist on May 29, 2012 8:56 pm

        I agree Mccalman has come in for some hostile criticism which is undeserved. i think we the fans need to pick our games up and start looking at these stats more before slagging anyone off. This article for instance is excellent. In saying that I don’t think mccalman should be there because he has not played as much as the others through injury and still for mine looks a little less match fit then last year.

        Perhaps by July he might be ready for tests again.

        Report
        • The Rant on May 29, 2012 10:42 pm

          Murph has a point though – stats don’t show impact – in the last 2 years where mccalman has played in gold he has been completely ineffective – workrate has always been high and shows he gives it his all. But apart from the one try he created against the blacks in his debut from the scrumbase, he has almost never beaten the gain line and he missed about 4 tryline tackles last year. Poor for an 8.

          He’s got heart but he makes very little impact. And as pointed out in the article – the force have played with huge amounts of posession this season – so mccalans runs/metres stats are are little misleading – especially when you recall how little possession the wallabies played with last season.

          That said – based on these pure stats and knowing nothing else I wouldn’t know who to pick – maybe dennis?

          Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 2:35 am

          The rant you make sense! agree with you. He is technically a good player. I understandnd why Deans rates him but he has had plenty of chances to dominate at test level and he is really yet to do so. Same with higginbotham really who i think made a good 10min cameo gainst the all balcks once but other than that nothing really. they will both get another chance against a good solid Scottish pack. So lets see how he and higgers get on.

          For Wales I think Dennis at 6, Palu at 8 and I can’t see that changing for the series unless either Mccalman or Higgers do something special against the scots.

          Report
      • Mart on May 30, 2012 1:43 pm

        Spot on Murph.
        No doubt he has a good crack. But he isn’t clearing rucks like a “Vickerman” say.
        He dosen’t make dominant tackles.

        See Grimalde for the bulldogs in league. 3rd man into a lot of tackles. So it goes on his stats. The master of the flop.

        Report
  4. Pedro on May 29, 2012 10:43 am

    This pretty much confirms most peoples suspicions. Mowen was a little, but not a lot, hard done by to be left out and Higgs isn’t playing as a six traditionally should.

    My solution is to put higs in 13, then no one can complain about his lack of involvement and his predilection to run wide.

    Report
    • The Rant on May 30, 2012 7:26 pm

      Higgs hasn’t had the number 6 on his back to often this season.

      Report
      • Pedro on May 30, 2012 7:51 pm

        That makes sense.

        Report
  5. Gaffa on May 29, 2012 10:44 am

    Mccalmn is very a very good lineout option remember last year he was playing at lock at the force do they could have all 4 wallabies back rowers in the starting team. I think that stat is more showing not that he isn’t a good option just not a needed option with sharp and Lynn and wykes in the team.

    Report
    • FORCE FAN on May 30, 2012 1:34 am

      Matt Hodgson is the No2 go to man for the Force at the lineout as shown by the Most Lineouts Won stats on Rugby Heaven.

      He’s at the same level as Dave Dennis – the No 1 Waratah.

      Report
  6. qwerty51 on May 29, 2012 10:50 am

    There’s a reason Higginbotham excels at the lineout to the others, because of Horwill’s presence. Same as why McCalman’s has poor lineout stats, because of Sharpe’s presence.

    Horwill won’t be there for the June tests, Dennis starting with Higgers on the bench looks to the best option. McCalman as expected has a good workrate and will likely get a spot on the bench in a 5:2 split instead of Hooper due to experience.

    Report
  7. Colin on May 29, 2012 11:38 am

    As much as I don’t like him, I have to feel for McCalman. He gives it 110% and always does a ton of work around the field, but he just doesn’t cut it at international level, he doesn’t have that special ‘impact’ players need to make it. I would love Dennis at 6 and Higgas at 8, Palu on the bench for impact as he isn’t a 80minute player, that isn’t even arguable it’s just fact.

    Report
  8. Joe Blow on May 29, 2012 11:41 am

    Higgers is the only one with that X factor that cannot be well represented in the stats.
    The other three are very similar players. They are hard working tight playing backrowers and will never let the side down but maybe lack a little in grunt(this could be a tad unfair to Dennis).
    The point is that you don’t need 3 very similar players vying for the same positions in a test squad. Mowen was the unlucky one who missed out, most likely because of McCalmans superior test experience.
    I would like to see Dennis and Higgers join Pocock in the backrow against the Scots. Of course it will not happen because of the Super rugby schedule, but this seems the most balanced backrow available right now.
    Palu is overrated and tends to make costly errors at the base of the scrum when it is under pressure. Higgers is a better long term solution at 8.
    With Horwill out for this series we also need to have 2 good lineout options at 6 and 8.

    Report
    • aussie werewolf in london on May 29, 2012 7:38 pm

      Please read my stats above comparing palu and higgers. If that doesn’t change your mind nothing will!

      Report
  9. Dbla on May 29, 2012 11:52 am

    I think something that isn’t reflected in those stats and that should be one of the first things considered when it comes to picking a wallaby 6/8 combination is how many of those runs in the tight and wide get well over the advantage line. Its the reason most jump back on Palu bandwagon (me included) when he is fit because he has trouble not getting well over the advantage line. This is where I think the line has to be drawn through McCalman as I don’t think he gets over the advantage line much let alone well over it. He isn’t an effective ball runner despite having a huge ticker. I don’t think he has shown enough improvement in his play with the chances he has had at Test level to warrant another crack ahead the other contenders including Mowen.

    This is where I think Dennis shows he should get a nod because from the games that I’ve watched he seems to carry the ball over the gain line pretty well and has a decent enough work rate, I also think he has shown a lot of growth as a player over the last couple of years and think that he might continue to get better if he gets solid game time at Test level. What I wonder is whether a backrow of Dennis, Higgers and Poey would be an effective unit at Test level. I think Dennis and Pocock play well enough in the tight to allow having Higgers do his thing wider. Anyone with a little more backrow nous think that could work? Or is too green for Test football?

    Report
    • Dbla on May 29, 2012 11:54 am

      Seems the two above think the same, nice.

      Report
  10. Big Fella on May 29, 2012 11:57 am

    If you want to watch a player properly, turn the sound off and just watch for that particular player.
    This removes the bias, hype and distraction and allows you to see exactly where they are on the field in critical situations, their work rate and contributions.
    There’s nothing like being there at the game but TV sometimes provides a clearer picture.

    Report
  11. ooaahh on May 29, 2012 12:15 pm

    what nobody is saying here is the effect of those contributions. Doing a lot of work doesn’t mean you are being effective. McCalman is not effective, too upright, rarely breaks the gainline, Dennis offers go forward everywhere. Higgers offers go forward out wide and Mowen offers go forward in tight. McCalman just offers lost meters. It’s a shame he’s in the squad.

    Report
    • murph on May 29, 2012 7:10 pm

      couldn’t have put it better.

      Report
    • murph on May 29, 2012 7:19 pm

      He reminds me a bit of Nathan Long who used to play for the Cronulla Mungos – he’d hit the defensive line at full pace, in a really animated fashion with blond locks flying everywhere…and get utterly smashed…then he’d get up and do it again 20 times in a game. The bloke’s skeleton must be a mess these days.

      Report
  12. JimmyJames on May 29, 2012 12:53 pm

    I would have thought Higgers would be the preferred option at No 8 given his combination with Genia.

    Report
  13. Wobbly on May 29, 2012 1:48 pm

    Mowen definitely deserves a shot looking at the stats and the anecdotal evidence of his leadership at the Brumbies. Palu is still the leading lock but unlikely to last 80. Higgers having the ‘un-statifyable’ x -factor would seem to be a logical 50-60 minute sub.

    My first choice pack would be:
    Robinson
    Moore
    Kepu
    Horwill (Sharpe)
    Simmons
    Mowen
    Pocock
    Palu

    Subs:
    Slipper
    TPN
    Pyle
    Higgers
    Hooper (if running a 5/2 split by selecting Lucas as a reserve back)

    Report
    • the realist on May 29, 2012 9:07 pm

      There is no way Mowen is suited to test rugby. Every time he goes to south africa for instance he goes missing… for the tahs these past few years and for the brumbies this year. Last time i checked test rugby is played in south africa. It’s one of the huge concern I have with Mowen making the next step.

      Report
  14. Footy fan on May 29, 2012 3:01 pm

    Behind the stats is the need to dig deeper to get the true picture when comparing players, for instance when analysing the line out stats nobody has mentioned that Mowen stands at 7 or 6 at the back of the line out which is the hardest part of the line out to either defend against or to win clean lineout ball, where as all of the other back row contenders mentioned such as Higgers and Dennis usually play at no 2 in the line out which by contrast is considered the easiest position to defend against in terms of winning against the throw as well as also being the easiest position to win your own ball, so Mowen’s lineout statistics should be viewed even stronger than they actually are due to the above facts mentioned.

    Report
    • Barbarian on May 29, 2012 3:16 pm

      I’d dispute all of that- the idea that Mowen only stands at the back and the others at the front (you just say it without any supporting data), and also that that is the hardest place to win lineout ball.

      In my (admittedly very low grade) experience the further you go to the front of the lineout the more messy and contested the ball tends to be, and thus technique and speed are far more important. At the back you generally have more time and less competition for the ball.

      But in reality it is a very small factor in assessing the overall performance of the players.

      Report
      • BloodRed on May 29, 2012 6:26 pm

        Agree with that BaaBaa. Back of the line out is only harder for the thrower and not the jumper.

        Report
        • the realist on May 29, 2012 9:02 pm

          oh come on the front of the lineout is the easiest to win lineout ball. thats why the thrower throws there the most. if you stand at the front you will have more chances to win lineouts than if you are at the middle or the back.

          the line out stats are not a level playing field. the level playing field are the stats from the playing field ie tackles, runs, breakdowns.

          just keeping it real!

          Report
        • BloodRed on May 29, 2012 10:42 pm

          Play a game in the forwards dickhead and then comment. The throw to 2 is the easiest for the hooker to get right not the easiest for the jumper. In terms of competition for the ball the 2 position is the most combatitive. The evidence is there in the figure that has Higgers winning the most line outs on opposition throw, he is a top shelf jumper.

          Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 2:02 am

          It is easier to throw to no 2. Exactly. As for it being the hardest to jump at it is in fact the easiest to jump at because it is usually a quicker flatter throw to catch the opposition off guard and the jumpers technque can afford to be sub standard. The further you go back the harder it is because more things can go wrong and the technique of the jumper and lifter become much more vitally important. End of! In terms of throwing to the back of the lineout, if you mean throwing for someone who doesn’t jump then yeah thats completely different. You and Barbarian are wrong on this one. if you are saying that Higgers steals at the front because he reads the opp throw well and good that might be true but jumping at no 2 is still relatively easy.

          Report
  15. muffy on May 29, 2012 3:16 pm

    The Saffas think Higgers is a thug.. read their blogs

    Thats enough of a stat for me..

    Report
    • Dave on May 29, 2012 4:07 pm

      The saffas thinking an aussie a thug?? They would know I guess. For mine this just means he should always be selected to play them.

      Report
      • Patrick on May 29, 2012 4:50 pm

        I think that’s what he meant!

        Report
        • Dave on May 29, 2012 9:28 pm

          I was agreeing with him. Clumsily, I admit.

          Report
    • aussie werewolf in london on May 29, 2012 7:41 pm

      fantastic logic! do you guys have trouble doing simple tasks like dressing yourselves in the morning?

      Honestly the stats don’t lie. Higgers is rubbish compared to the other backrowers. just accept it already.

      Report
      • muffy on May 29, 2012 11:43 pm

        You really are crying out for some attention aren’t you. Is that an inferiority complex or are you just in need of a hug?

        Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 2:20 am

          you worry me Muffy!

          Report
        • RJ on May 30, 2012 6:58 pm

          Warewolf you burst ontpo the GNGR scene and think we should all praise you and accept your opinions. We’ve all been around here for a lot longer than you. Stop getting upset that people dont acept your opinions.

          HIggers is like John Howard. you either love him or hate him. no middle ground. The ones who love him are the educated ones who have more insight and knowledge. The ones who hate him, dont understand his game (politics or rugby) and believe fairy tales exist.

          At the end of the day, the other options are inferior. Your beloved Ben Mowen in this analogy is Julia Gilliard. Do you really want to support JG?

          Report
      • Alan on May 29, 2012 11:49 pm

        werewolf you occasionally make sense…. more often then not you just type utter shite

        2 weeks ago i provided you with stats clearly showing how poor Rob Horne was in defence/attack but that didnt subside your horne-love at all.

        So just like you choose to ignore some stats, accept that others will too.

        Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 2:18 am

          No i have conceeded that Horne’s form before his suspension was crap. I had written him off actually and wouldn’t have accepted his selection a month ago! However he has played outstandingly well these past few weeks. He has scored 4 tries in 4 games and has smashed almost everything that has come his way. His performance against the Bulls was in my opinion the premier performance of any aussie no 13 this year. So Deans was right in selecting him despite his 28 missed tackles this season most of which were when he was out of form. When you consider Conrad Smith has missed 24 tackles as well it kind of tells you that outside centre is the hardest place to defend. But I completely understand why one might question his place in the squad. but hey who is putting their hand up to play 13 for the wallabies? Faingaa? he’s been a little innocuous. i certainly haven’t noticed him do anything spectacularly impressive.

          I am disappointed that Tupou didn’t make the squad because I think he was worth a look at 13. Maybe too early. Maybe August maybe November.

          Report
  16. Patrick on May 29, 2012 4:50 pm

    Can Ben Robinson or TPN play no 8?

    Report
    • muffy on May 29, 2012 5:38 pm

      I think TPN started at 8..I could be wrong

      Report
      • ooaahh on May 30, 2012 1:38 pm

        5/8 at school actually

        Report
    • bill on May 30, 2012 5:17 am

      Surely you mean Ben Alexander, not Robbo?

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      • Patrick on May 30, 2012 9:28 pm

        Not actually I want BA at LH prop.

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  17. Footy Fan on May 29, 2012 6:39 pm

    To Barbarian – anyone playing rugby knows that down the back of the lineout is always the hardest area to win – due to the need for an accurate, long throw as well as the opposing players having more time to prepare to defend. I know Mowen plays down the back as I have watched all of the Brumbies games if you doubt it phone up the Brumbies coaching staff and have it verified or watch his next games, he will be at 6 or 7 in the lineout, although I noticed on the week-end they had Kimlin well at the back with fardy at 2 and Mowen in between, but usually Kimlin has not been starting and comes off the bench.
    Because of the short throw the front of the lineout is the “money ball” listen to any game and the commentators will verify this as well, that is why when teams are struggling to win lineouts they go back to throwing to the no 2 position to gain confidence, yes it is messy because any decent opposing jumper will jump everythrow but it is statistically proven that it is easier to win your lineout at the front.

    The point made by the author of the article is that the lineout is the key attacking set piece weapon and extremly important in scoring trys and attacking the opposition thus my point. The stats article only highlighted three key areas one of which the lineout is the most important – Mowen is a far superor lineout opton than Dennis, McCalman or Higgers…………

    Report
    • Barbarian on May 30, 2012 12:59 pm

      So what you are arguing is –

      1. The back is the hardest place to win ball, partially due to the need for a good throw (which Mowen has nothing to do with)
      2. Mowen jumps at the back
      3. Therefore, Mowen is the best jumper.

      Which is flawed.

      Look you haven’t convinced me of your argument, so we can do this back-and-forth until the cows come home. All I will say is I reckon each of Dennis, Higgers and Mowen are good jumpers and I would describe none of them as ‘far superior’ to the others.

      Report
  18. JJJ on May 29, 2012 6:55 pm

    All this talk about Pocock covering the need for tackles and on-ball grunt is a bit worrying for mine. Surely we want him to be second man to the tackle as often as possible so he can pull out his supreme turnover skills? A large chunk of the AB’s world cup semi-final strategy was to run at him as much as possible to force him to be the tackler, thereby taking him out of the ensuing ruck contest. Sometimes he’s good enough to get back up and contest anyway, but he’s much more effective going for the ball after someone else has completed the tackle.

    That said, there’s not much between any of the options in terms of tackles completed. I’m guessing that with RWC rankings drawn in Dec and the state of our injuries list Deans will want to play a very defensive, territory-based game, which will devalue Higgers’ open runs.

    Report
    • bill on May 30, 2012 5:26 am

      That’s an area where I like having Higgers as an 8 with Gill and Pocock in the same backrow. I like Palu or Fotu’s physical dominance, but I’d prefer to see Higger’s there.

      But it does mean you need some big lads around as well, Horwill, who won’t be there, Kepu, Alexander. Think Benny is very lucky to be beating out Mowen.

      As far as lineouts go, It’s causing me a bit of a worry how often Qld call Higgers this season, it’s got to be getting a little predictable.

      Report
    • Patrick on May 30, 2012 9:30 pm

      Which is why we really should consider Hooper and Pocock in the team, we cares about conventional wisdom, Hooper may be light but he actually carries more effectively than any of these guys iirc!

      Report
      • the realist on May 30, 2012 9:44 pm

        Do you recall smith and waugh at 6 an 7. That did not work. No the answer is we need a proper no 6 ie Dave Dennis.

        Report
  19. JimmyC on May 29, 2012 7:02 pm

    People talking about including lineouts in workrate stats makes me laugh. Unless you are calling them it is not really your choice. I would suggest we need to look at “lineout effectiveness” more than anything. Combining takes, steals, losses, clean ball etc per jumper or something like that.

    I feel sorry for Benny Mowen just as I did last year when he was punted by the tahs. I actually spoke to him at the Super Rugby Final last year and wished him well. Top bloke. Last year the tahs backed Elsom, Dennis and Palu and this time the Wallabies have backed Higginbotham, Palu, Dennis and McCalman. It is harsh but maybe his problem is he is just not good enough.

    With it being line ball maybe Dingo actually did the smart thing and picked the force bloke becuase he has the week off. If the Brumbies did and the Force didnt I dare say you would see a different player in the squad.

    Report
    • murph on May 29, 2012 7:22 pm

      You’re giving Deans’s brain way too much credit

      Report
  20. Nipper on May 29, 2012 10:10 pm

    “…I have never seen an international level backrow forward contribute less to his team effort that Scott Higginbotham.”

    I guess we know who Bob Dwyer thinks SHOULDN’T be in the side!

    Report
  21. Nipper on May 29, 2012 10:19 pm

    “Higgers has the ‘X-factor'” – translation: “I love him because he’s a Red, and even though there is no evidence of his awesomeness (because he seagulls out on the wing and occasionally scores a long range open-field try, palming off a poor winger), the stats can’t possibly illustrate his superiority.”

    That is the mythical X-Factor.

    Report
    • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 2:25 am

      loving this comment

      Report
  22. Willus on May 30, 2012 12:08 am

    How is Palu’s match fitness? I’ve always liked watching him play but he always subbed off at 50/60 mins and that somewhat annoyed me.

    Report
    • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 2:24 am

      I think he is increasingly playing more and more minutes each week. Remember he has battled injuries for the past few years so he needed to build back his match fitness. His work rate suggest to me that he is now fully fit. I also hear that of all the tahs forwards he is the most likely to do extras. I too want to see him now play the full 80min.

      Report
  23. Nothing if not critical on May 30, 2012 4:27 am

    Palu is made of glass – always getting injured, rarely playing a full game.

    Report
  24. Piggy on May 30, 2012 10:40 am

    The problem with these stats is taking them in isolation to the other forwards. Higgers is afforded to play his wider game, and encouraged by Link, due to the work rate of his fellow forwards. Slipper and Daley would be the two highest work rate props in Australia with Daley learning pilfering off Gill.

    It would be nice to know what our game plan is going to be before we select a back row. Although given the RWC I don’t know if Dingo does game plans. If it is ‘play what is in front of you’, ie make it up as you go, then it will be Higgers…

    Report
    • Pedro on May 30, 2012 12:39 pm

      Alexander and Palmer have higher work rates than those two. Check the stats from the article from a week ago.

      Report
    • Robbie D on May 30, 2012 7:32 pm

      Game plans are for pussies. Real men play the fuck out of what’s in front of them!

      Report
  25. Red Kev on May 30, 2012 11:27 am

    With the propensity of the uninformed to try and use statistics to “prove” certain players are better I thought it would be useful to enlighten you as to why that is a flawed premise.
    Of particular interest was this gem of a comment “Please read my stats above comparing palu and higgers. If that doesn’t change your mind nothing will!”
    All that shows is that the poster doesn’t understand statistical analysis.

    What statistics can’t tell you:
    How effective was any given action?
    22 Ruck involvements (as per Vickerman at the RWC) means nothing if 16 of those 22 were him shoving or leaning into an already formed and stable ruck.
    How many ruck involvements secured your own ball as opposed to uselessly contested opposition ball?
    Being the fourth player committed to a ruck is often unnecessary.
    How many ruck involvements resulted in turnovers?
    How many ruck involvements on your own ball resulted in quick ball for the halfback?
    Where was each action taking place? 5 run metres inside the opposition 22 or inside your own 22 is more important than 5 metres made between the ‘red zones’.
    How many runs broke the gain line?
    How many tackles were made next to the ruck with helpers as opposed to out wider closing down a break?
    How many tackles lead to turnovers either by the tackler or the “arriving player”?
    How many lineout takes were opposed or unopposed?
    How many kicks or kickoffs were retained from an uncredited tap back?

    I will leave you to ponder that and also with a quality one liner that I think is very applicable here:
    You can find statistics to prove anything, 14% of all people know that.

    Lastly if “forwards win matches” why does everyone assume the Waratahs have the best forward pack? The Australian team with the most wins is in fact the Reds.

    Report
    • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 5:31 pm

      Yes its better to just hang back ala higginbotham and not get involved in too many rucks or take taoo many carries. Imagine if all our forwards had that mentality like your boy higginbotham.

      How can you debate Palu’s double the amount of carries and metres. Is it a case of higginbotham just biding his time in that department as well.

      I for on want to go in a test match with 8 forwards not 7 forwards and Higginbotham.

      Report
      • Red Kev on May 30, 2012 5:55 pm

        To quote Meatsack from above:
        “Check the statistics for when they went head to head in round 1. Higginbotham beat Palu across the board in stats.
        I rate Palu, I’d have no problem with him starting over Higgers. But you have a massive chip on your shoulder.”

        Higginbotham is a quality player. Australia’s most consistent forward this year, and Australia’s best blindside flanker by a country mile last year. Your inability to admit this condemns everything else you have to say.

        Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 6:59 pm

          hoes it going mate? it must be hard to accept you are wrong when you have vouched so passionately for higgers only to be proven wrong. i’m sure your acceptance will come in time.

          have a couple to ease the pain

          Report
        • Chester on May 30, 2012 8:41 pm

          Red Kev will you still be pushing Higgers barrow next year when he is playing for the Rebels?

          Report
      • suckerforred on May 30, 2012 6:30 pm

        Mr Werewolf,

        I accept that fully fit in top form Palu is the out and out starter for the 8 position.

        Does he play 6? Not last time I looked, but stand to be corrected.

        The huge grey thing sitting in the corner of the room (i.e. the elephant) when it comes to Palu is injury. Yes he has managed to string some games together this year and seems to be getting back to his wreaking ball best form. But that elephant is not going to go away. Why? Because it has been sitting in that corner for so long now that it is going to be fucking hard for anyone to forget that it is there.

        The many arguements that you have for not playing Higgers have been countered by the many arguements for playing Higgers. And I think that we all accept that it depends largely on what game plan is going to be played. What we are discussing here is who should be blindside flanker and who will be back up for Palu.

        I don’t understand you dislike for Higgers. Did he steel your girlfriend or something?

        Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 6:55 pm

          Higginbotham’s reputation is a myth stemming from Qld parochialism and a penchant for imposing rugby league forward qualities into what we want our rugby players to have. This offends me as an australian rugby fan and as someone that played the game because Higginbotham is a poor rugby player. Every now and then he does something very good which pleases the crowds but I will not let it pass that he earns the stardom off the back of his team mates work that he should be doing himself. I can assure you that only in australia could Higginbotham be a rugby star and certainly it is only in australia that he is a star. He would not feature in any other major playing nations squads to help give some perspective.

          The game is an international one and the national team is all I care about and so I don’t care which state a player is from. Let league keep their state of origin parochial hatred of each other. That doesn’t belong in Rugby. The fact that queenslanders are passionate about their team is great but not when it clouds their judgement in the calling for any red player to be picked ahead of players from other states regardless of who is the better player in reality. I’d be on here saying the same if higginbotham played for the brumbies or the tahs etc

          You say arguments against Higginbotham have been countered. No they have not. Not in the real world which I suggest you join.

          Your suggestion that somehow Palu should not be picked because he may get injured when he is not injured at the moment and is great form is plain stupid.

          Report
        • suckerforred on May 30, 2012 7:06 pm

          “Your suggestion that somehow Palu should not be picked because he may get injured when he is not injured at the moment and is great form is plain stupid.” – To repeat what I said above – ‘What we are discussing here is who should be blindside flanker and who will be back up for Palu.’ I don’t have the confidance that Palu can play the way he does for a full 80, let alone for a full 80 in a test environment for 3 weeks running. Hands up who does? Look at that even the Tahs coaching squad have their hands scratching their arse.

          Ah fuck what an I doing……. Please read the comment I made at the bottom of this thread. Be a big boy and learn that people have difference of opinion. BarBar and I have to agree to disagree all the time.

          Report
        • RJ on May 30, 2012 7:08 pm

          i think the amount of thumbs up warewolf has got for that comment says it all.

          Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 7:18 pm

          You asked me why i despise higgers and i told you.

          Higginbotham is a no8. Thats where he plays for the reds and he has been picked as Plau’s back up. He should play no 6 for the wallabies as much as Palu should. ie no way.

          No 6 is a different discussion. Dennis is the best no 6 in australia.

          Report
        • aussie werewolf in london on May 30, 2012 7:33 pm

          RJ I’m not sure whether you mean my first comment which has 21 pays or the one i just posted a few minutes ago so either I should say thank you or not but i will say this.

          A person is smart. People are morons. Why is football(soccer) the most popular game in the world when there is a game they play in heaven called rugby which is a thousand times better? You can’t always base your thoughts on popular opinion otherwise you are just one of the moronic masses.

          Here the lesson endeth.

          Report
    • Big Fella on May 30, 2012 6:27 pm

      You make some really good points here re quality v quantity and outcome of effort.

      Your only slip up was using Vickerman as the ruck involvement example.

      No Wallaby forward has hit rucks harder or with more impact than Vickerman over the past 10 years or perhaps longer.

      Report
      • suckerforred on May 30, 2012 6:33 pm

        I think he was using Vickers as he was the one that had the 22 involvements. Not necessarily saying that he isn’t effective in those rucks. Could have used Quade Cooper as a name, however the figure would then change.

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    • the realist on May 31, 2012 12:06 am

      Red Kev I think i will from this point refer to you as the ‘simplest’ though from your arrogance I’m sure you’ll think you are the astutest.

      ‘… there are some easy figures the simplest must understand, and the astutest cannot wriggle out of.’

      Lord Courtney, 1895

      Report
  26. suckerforred on May 30, 2012 2:39 pm

    “Dennis and Higgers give good contrasting options depending on the balance required.”

    I think this quote is what really illustrates the problem we have. The Backrow of any rugby team requires balance, and which way that balance leans depends on the game plan that you are trying to play and also the rest of the forward pack. Well, actually, the rest of the team.

    Yep I think Benny Mowen was unlucky to miss out. But if it was Higgers, Dennis or McCalman being left out, I would think the same thing about them. One thing that Oz seems to have at the moment is a reasonable list of good backrowers.

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    • JimmyC on May 30, 2012 7:09 pm

      Or just a bunch of ok ones with no stand out.

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      • suckerforred on May 30, 2012 7:32 pm

        Perhaps. Either way we have a few at the same level who bring different things to the table. A choice is going to have to be made as to which ones will fit the game plan best. It is good to have the choice, unlike with 10’s where it seems it is going to be last man standing who has a passing knowledge of what to do in that position.

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    • Big Fella on May 30, 2012 8:43 pm

      Spot on, apart from Pocock we have a lot of reasonable backrowers but not outstanding backrowers. Hopefully some will develop and emerge quickly.

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  27. Apostle on May 30, 2012 10:36 pm

    I wonder how these stats looks against Rocky in his prime (when he was in Ireland?), or someone like Dusautoir?

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  28. Hills ton hog on May 31, 2012 3:37 am

    Mcalman is not an international standard player……period.

    Clifford the rooster @ 8
    Dennis at 6
    Higgers splinter hunting for 60 min and carving up tired legs for the last 20.

    Report
  29. Gallagher on May 31, 2012 5:35 am

    Aussie Werewolf in London you are annoying the HELL out of me! Dude! Seriously! Get over Higgers! He WILL be in the run on team, he WILL hold his spot at 6, and Palu WILL do likewise at 8! Simple, So shut it already.

    Oh and Horne has the best performance at 14 this year? Not likely! Ant Faingaa takes the gong here for his return game for the Reds! Single-handedly built a RED brick wall in backs defense and slammed it relentlessly back at every attack since hes been back! Boom.

    Report
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