The Springboks might have recovered from their horror start to the Rugby World Cup against Japan, but the ghosts of Brighton will still be with them when they appear at Twickenham for the Quarter-final.
Wales will have their own doubts—about their inability to beat the Wallabies, who had just 13 men for eight minutes—and their failure to score two tries that looked like “slam-dunks”.
Wales
Liam Williams is injured so George North returns to the wing enabling 20 year-old Tyler Morgan to play in his third test, at outside centre.
In a horses-for-courses selection switch, skipper Sam Warburton moves over to the open side to replace the more mobile Justin Tipuric, and Dan Lydiate starts on the blindside flank. Meanwhile veteran loose head prop, Gethin Jenkins, returns to the starting side.
Warburton was confident:
The boys were pretty tired after the Australia game [last Saturday]. It is just making sure the energy is right this weekend and you have got a full tank to go again. The boys are in a good place at the moment.
Coach Warren Gatland talked about the physicality required against the Boks :
They are an incredibly physical team up front. We have got to match them at scrum time and in the driving line-out.
We have to scrummage well. With South Africa, they go back to what works for them: A strong scrum and an attacking lineout. The set piece is going to be pretty important for us.
South Africa
JP Pietersen returns to the starting team for South Africa after recovering from a knee injury, but Victor Matfield is still sidelined by a sore hamstring. This means that in-form locks Lood de Jager and Eben Etzebeth will provide an absorbing lineout contest with the giraffes from Wales, although they will lack the organisation of the great man.
Fourie du Preez will captain the Springboks again and should prove how valuable his leadership is with the absence of Matfield and the forced retirement of Jean de Villiers.
Frans Malherbe retains his spot at tight head prop, but Wales will get no joy when Jannie du Plessis comes from the bench to replace him.
Springbok great Schalk Burger praised Sam Warburton:
The way Wales defend coming off the line, they go for chop-tackling and this gives them an opportunity to get on the ball and steal it. If we want to have the same momentum in attack, we will need to look after him with a big emphasis on getting over the gainline.
Key match-ups
Wales have not impressed in the scrum in their three big games, whoever they started with upfront; so the Boks should have the edge there; but they should hold their own in the lineouts.
The battle of the no.8s will be a feature. Both Duane Vermeulen and Taulupe Faletau are bruising runners, but expect the Springbok to flatten more defenders, and the skillful Welshman to run further and link better.
The contrast of the flyhalves will be interesting: Welshman Dan Biggar will sit back more and scan, whereas South African Handre Pollard will challenge the tackle line more, almost to a fault. Biggar should slot more difficult kicks at goal than Pollard does.
If the ball gets to the centres enough, the Springbok pairing of Damian de Allende and wunderkind Jesse Kriel should do better than the midfield of Jamie Roberts and Tyler Morgan, though Roberts may fancy himself against some bad defensive reads of De Allende.
The fullbacks will be like chalk and cheese: Willie le Roux will be looking for the main chance to link with Byran Habana or JP Pietersen and attack from deep; Gareth Anscombe will be the concerned custodian.
Prediction
Wales have come through two huge games and the last one must have drained them. The Springboks had a romp against the USA and three days extra rest into the bargain.
South Africa have an experienced bench and despite the absence of two veterans (at centre and lock) from its ideal starting RWC team, their replacements are young guns whose time has come anyway.
By contrast, many of the regular bench players of Wales are starting now because of injuries before the RWC or since it started, and even some replacements are injured.
South Africa looked clueless when they lost to Wales at Millennium Stadium this time last year, but unless the ghosts of Brighton say “Boo” at Twickenham, I expect them to win.
Springboks by 8
The teams
Wales
1. Gethin Jenkins, 2. Scott Baldwin, 3. Samson Lee, 4. Luke Charteris, 5. Alun-Wyn Jones, 6. Dan Lydiate, 7. Sam Warburton (c), 8. Taulupe Faletau.
9. Gareth Davies; 10. Dan Biggar, 11. George North, 12.Jamie Roberts, 13. Tyler Morgan,14. Alex Cuthbert, 15. Gareth Anscombe.
Reserves: 16. Ken Owens, 17. Paul James, 18. Tomas Francis, 19. Bradley Davies, 20. Justin Tipuric, 21. Lloyd Williams, 22. Rhys Priestland, 23. James Hook.
South Africa
1. Tendai Mtawarira, 2. Bismarck du Plessis, 3. Frans Malherbe, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 5. Lood de Jager, 6. Francois Louw, 7. Schalk Burger, 8. Duane Vermeulen,
9. Fourie du Preez (c), 10. Handre Pollard, 11. Bryan Habana, 12 Damian de Allende, 13 Jesse Kriel, 14. JP Pietersen, 15. Willie le Roux.
Reserves: 16. Adriaan Strauss, 17. Trevor Nyakane, 18. Jannie du Plessis, 19. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20. Willem Alberts, 21. Ruan Pienaar, 22. Pat Lambie, 23. Jan Serfontein.
