Here we are with 2 to go. I’ve kicked the Force and the Blues out of contention, leaving 7 teams and 4 spots. I’ve added points differential as it will probably be relevant.
| Rank | Team | Points | Score diff |
| 1 | Hurricanes |
39 | (+100) |
| 2 | Chiefs |
37 |
(+91) |
| 3 | Bulls |
37 |
(+57) |
| 4 | Sharks |
35 |
(+48) |
| 5 | Waratahs | 32 |
(+20) |
| 6 | Crusaders |
32 |
(+11) |
| 7 | Brumbies | 32 | (-13) |
The run home:
| Hurricanes | Chiefs (A) | Reds (A) |
| Chiefs | Hurricanes (H) | Brumbies (H) |
| Bulls | Cheetahs (H) | Shorks (A) |
| Shorks | Waratahs (H) | Bulls (H) |
| Waratahs | Shorks (A) | Lions (A) |
| Crusaders | Reds (H) | Blues (A) |
| Brumbies | Blues (H) | Chiefs (A) |
Realistically, I think only the Shorks could miss the top 4. Brumby fans will hope that the Bulls beat them in Durban. The only way the Tahs will get there is if they beat them next week. The chances of the Tahs losing to the Shorks but making the finals anyway are miniscule. Given that one of the Chiefs and Canes will lose next week, the Bulls could go to the top of the table by smashing the Cheetahs.
In my opinion it’ll end up:
| Hurricanes | W | W | 1st |
| Bulls | W | W | 2nd |
| Chiefs | L | W | 3rd |
| Crusaders | W | W | 4th |
| Shorks | W | L | 5th |
| Waratahs | L | W | 6th |
| Brumbies | W | L | 7th |
<span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="2751 https://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/?p=2751">15 Comments
I guess it comes down to the Sharks and the Tahs this weekend.
If the Sharks win, then that’s it basically.
If the Tahs get home then look out, the Saders and Brumbies are a BIG chance if they keep winning…
Another way to put it though is that the Tahs still have their destiny in their own hands. Simply (!!) beat the Shawks next and NSW then actually has a point on the buggers and the beatable Lions left.
Similarly, if your prediction about the Canes beating the Chiefs holds, then the Brumbies will also have a last crack away against the Chiefs.
Both very tough, almost unwinnable, games. But still in the hunt!
The unfortunate thing could be how many points the Reds development XV give to the Saders…..
“Probability” of Australian Super 14 teams making the finals” ??
Don’t you mean “Remote Possibility” ?
I think you’re forgetting how close these teams actually are!
The only reason the brumbies are behind the cheifs is bonus points!
Of course they can go over and get the win!
Only NSW and ACT stand a realistic chance from the Aussies’ point of view.
Of cours, the Force are still mathematically alive and I still they’ll win both of their remaining matches against the Stormers (away) and the Highlanders (home).
The only problem for them is that the other matches will not go the way the want…
Waratahs? Simply need to beat the Sharks in Durban this coming weekend.
If they can, they’ll make the play-offs provided they’ll beat the Lions too (which I thinkn they will).
If they lose in Durban, kiss it goodbye unfortunately…
Brumbies? They should beat the Blues this weekend but everything depends on the Hamilton clash against the Chiefs.
Good luck Aussies!!!
You’d have to think the tah’s are a decent chance because they haven’t had any bad injury runs (except Baxter). For all their lameness they’re still consistently competitive.
The Brumbies on the other hand you feel if they can get a win this W/e and have some key personnel come back for the chiefs game they have the right mentality for the finals.
Pedro’s last blog post..Australia Prevail 2-0, One Foot In South Africa
This is a big boost to the ‘Tahs chances: Kockott out for next week.
This game that the Tahs have against the Sharks might just as well be a playoff game. I think with the Crusaders, not only do they have a very good chance of getting wins against the Reds and the Blues, I think they stand a good chance adding bonus points in those wins.
Even though the Sharks host their last two games, going against both the Tahs THEN the Bulls in consecutive weeks is going to be tough. If they win those last two games, they will have certainly earned their playoff berth.
Nursedude’s last blog post..Silver Reflections…
force must be ruing that implosion against the hurricanes and those appalling decisions against the tahs — they’d be in the box seat as I to think they are likely to win their two remaining games playing as well as they are.
I think you’re wrong to entirely write off the Force, even so. Look at your predictions for the end of the comp; I think they are basically sound. 40 points could put them through especially if the blues spring an upset in the final round or the crusaders somehow miss out on a bonus point against the reds.
Hmm, so if the Force beat the Stormers at Newlands and get the bonus point, then fly back to Perth to beat the Highlanders with a bonus point, then they’ll end up on 40.
There’s some Top4 derbies in there, meaning that at least 2 teams must go past 40.
The rest of the maths defeats me. Can you figure out the permutations?
This is the Table as I see it after this weekend
Canes 43
Bulls 42
Chiefs 38
Crusaders 37
Brum 37
Sharks 36
Tahs 36
Then after the last round I see it being
Canes 48
Bulls 43
Chiefs 41
Sharks 41
Crusaders 41
Tahs 40
Brumbies 38
Sharks and Bulls will play a high scoring game to make sure the Sharks get a bonus point or 2 and secure 2 saffas in the semis. Tahs to miss out thanks to lack of bonus points.
How appropriate.
I agree with Scarfman about the Force, unluckiest team in the comp.
Unlucky because they’re the closest geographically and ethnically to south africa and they have the gayest home ground, except for when the ‘tahs play at homebush.
Now I really begin to curse the Force for all this!!!
They should NOT have beaten the Tahs because that result is really putting a lot of dent in Australia’s hopes overall.
Think about it.
Had NSW beaten the Force back in round 10, they should now be on equal of 35 points at least with the Sharks on 4th or even above them on 36 if they got a bonus point.
If the Tahs fail to make the semis, then Western Force is responsible for that!
——–
From the Force’s point of view, curse those Canes!!!
They should have NEVER beaten the Force in Perth back in round 9!!!
What a thief!!!!!
For the Waratahs to make the top 4:
– Win both games against the Sharks and the Lions
– Hope that the Bulls will beat the Sharks in Durban in round 14
========
For the Brumbies to make the top 4:
– Win both games against the Blues and the Chiefs
– Hope that the ‘Canes will beat the Chiefs in Hamilton this coming weekend (round 13)