Maybe not the most attractive match in Round One, but certainly the most intriguing! For both teams this game will be critical: How will the Force play? Can the Rebels be a real threat this year?
Watch the Brumbies – Hurricanes game if you want a Grand Final preview. Watch the Sunwolves – Lions or the Kings – Cheetahs if you like watching car crashes. Watch the Tahs – Reds game for a bit of spite and fire. Watch the Blues – Highlanders game to see if Umanga can resurrect the NZ easybeats.
But this game is for the serious rugby enthusiast because there are just so many unknowns – intriguing issues in every position on the field and in the coaching box.
THE FORCE:
2014 was their big year. Missed the finals by a whisker (actually by four try bonus points). 2015 quickly saw them relegated to cellar dwellers with injuries and the inability to score tries the key to their downfall. This year they are talking up a new attacking game; but they did that last year and the year before. Foley is always talking up the attack pre-comp but it soon goes to custard once the playing starts.
The front row stocks look dodgy, and the second row thin for back-up talent. Once McCalman gets back they have close to the most workaholic backrow in the comp, but he is not on the teamsheet this week. Last year they relied on McCalman,Hodgson and Cottrell to play interminable one-out phase football on attack and to turn the defensive breakdown into a war of attrition.
In the backline they have bought extensively, with Ian Prior, Jono Lance, Peter Grant and Ben Tapuai all covering the 9/10/12/13 positions. With Mathewson, Godwin, Haylett-Petty, Morahan and Burton they surely now have the resources to play a wider game; but will they?
THE REBELS:
Mid-table last year after some really promising performances, including a great win away against the Crusaders. They have recruited James Hanson and Adam Thompson to fill key spots in the lineup and a number of promising newcomers for the future who might not see a great deal of game time this year. But, in the main, its a settled lineup.
To some extent the squad is separated into two groups – an older (geriatric?) group of experienced players and a group of fresh young talent with potential. Only McMahon, Hanson, Timani, Weeks, Smith and Jones bridge the gap between the two.
HEAD TO HEAD:
COACHES:
Can Foley coach a team to play anything but NH ten man rugby? On the evidence of the last five years you would think not, but this issue will decide his coaching career this year. If they are in the bottom three by round twelve then I predict a coup d’etat out west.
Totality Tony McGahan is seen in some quarters as a coaching genius and in others as something less. He coaches a style where every back must be over 100kg and able to run over people and would make an ideal companion coach for Warren Gatland.
How the game plans and selections of the two coaches work out on Saturday will decide the game.
SCRUM:
Cowan, Charles and Millar against Smith, Hanson and Weeks. Clear advantage to the Rebels in my view. Smith and Hanson will push hard for international honours over the next two years while Charles and Faulkner were less than stellar last year. Faulkner is out and Millar is unknown at this level.
LINEOUT:
Worth going thousands of kilometres to see this confrontation. Jones, Timani and Thompson up against Coleman, Mafi and Stander/Haylett-Petty. Coleman has been the next big thing for Australia for the last two years but it is high time he showed it. People knew Brodie Retallic was special after half a season; this year Coleman must step up or be overtaken.
BACKROW:
Hodgson, Stander and Cottrell vs McMahon, Thompson and Reid. Reid is listed at 6 and McMahon at 7 but they are likely to start on opposite sides. Maybe a slight advantage to the Rebels, but only a hair’s breadth. How people play on the night will decide this battle.
BACKLINES:
The Rebels have selected Meehan, Debreczeni, Inman, Ellison, Hodge, Harris and Shipperly (Stirzacker and Naivalu are injured). Tried and tested, you know exactly what you are going to get, except for Hodge. It will be interesting to see if he has the gas to play on the wing; his selection may mean the Rebels are expecting to field lots of kicks and want to use his 70 metre boomers to retaliate.
The Force have put their money where their mouth is. They’ve selected Mathewson, Lance, Godwin, Tapuai, Brache, Haylett-Petty and Morahan with Grant on the bench. I reckon that it’ll be a couple of weeks before we see that backline gel properly, always assuming they get the chance.
With the Rebels selecting Hodge on the wing, presumably as a second fullback, maybe the Rebels will play field position while the Force runs it from everywhere.
PREDICTION:
These games are rarely anything but close on the scoreboard. Head to head the Force average 23.6 points to the Rebels 23.3. Can’t get much closer than that. On the back of McCalman’s absence and the newness of the Force backline I am predicting the Rebels to win by 5.
TEAMS:
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THE FORCE
1. Pekahou Cowan
2. Nathan Charles
3. Guy Millar
4. Steve Mafi
5. Adam Coleman
6. Brynard Stander
7. Matt Hodgson
8. Angus Cottrell
9. Alby Mathewson
10. Jono Lance**
11. Marcel Brache
12. Kyle Godwin
13. Ben Tapuai**
14. Luke Morahan
15. Dane Haylett-Petty
Reserves
16. Heath Tessmann
17. Chris Heiberg
18. Jermaine Ainsley***
19. Ross Haylett-Petty
20. Chris Alcock
21. Ian Prior
22. Peter Grant**
23. Semisi Masirewa***
**Force debut ***Super debut
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THE REBELS
1. Toby Smith
2. James Hanson
3. Laurie Weeks
4. Luke Jones
5. Lopeti Timani
6. Jordy Reid
7. Sean McMahon
8. Adam Thompson**
9. Ben Meehan
10. Jack Debreczeni
11. Reece Hodge
12. Mitch Inman
13. Tamati Ellison
14. Dom Shipperly
15. Mike Harris
Reserves
16. Pat Leafa
17. Cruze Ah Nau
18. Jamie Hagan
19. Steve Cummins
20. Colby Fainga’a
21. Mick Snowden
22. Jonah Placid
23. Tom English
** Rebels debut
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OFFICIALS
Match No.7 :Force v Rebels
Date : Saturday 27 February 2016
Venue : nib Stadium, Perth
Kick Off local: 18:55 local
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen
Assistant Ref 1:Quinton Immelman
Assistant Ref 2:Graham Cooper
TMO Damien Mitchelmore
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