The Waratahs completely outplayed the Reds in their Round 2 clash, playing a power game built on an aggressive defence structure.
The Tahs played played for field position and then defended really well to shut down the Reds attack. While there was little difference between the number of kicks by each team (Tahs 30 to Reds 27), the Reds were trying short kicks to break the Tahs’ defensive line and so gained only 659 metres kicking; the Tahs were looking for distance and gained 1,043 metres off the boot.
The Tahs played with only 44 per cent of possession and had to make 171 tackles, compared to 134 for the Reds. The Reds had 99 rucks and mauls compared to 61 for the Tahs. The Tahs dominated the breakdowns and achieved 10 turnovers, robbing the Reds of momentum.
Despite having a much lower share of possession, the Tahs gained 801 metres running — which compares well with the Reds’ 832 metres.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Tahs take the same approach to this game. It might seem obvious to stick with what’s worked before but a few things have changed since that game: Beau Robinson has led a huge improvement at the breakdown by the Reds; the speed of the ball available for Genia and Cooper has been much better; the Reds’ attack has clicked into gear; and the Tahs’ defence has been less effective in recent games. In the video below I’ve summarised some of the defensive issues that have been developing recently and cost the Tahs plenty of points against the Blues last week.
[youtube width=”600″ height=”450″]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4QU_cCJPPk[/youtube]
If I were devising a game plan for the Tahs I’d probably avoid giving the ball to the Reds and then trying to shut them down. Instead I’d focus on keeping possession and forcing the Reds to do plenty of defensive work. Not that the Reds’ defence is suspect — in fact they’re running at 91 per cent tackle accuracy for the season, compared to 90 per cent for the Tahs, and their performance against the Stormers showed that they’re a really strong defensive team. What I’d be trying to do is sap some of the Reds’ energy by forcing them to make plenty of tackles, to see if that takes something out of their attack.
For the Reds I’ve already pointed out the Tahs’ ruck defence as an obvious area to target. I also think the Tahs defence structure doesn’t handle a fast-paced game that well (such as those forced on them by both the Crusaders and the Blues), and since the Reds are best suited to a fast, open game they should back themselves to run the Tahs around.
I suspect the Reds will concentrate their attack in the No. 10 channel regardless of who plays there for the Tahs. That approach would be designed to move the Tahs pack around a little, and if the Reds can secure quick ball they will keep the Tahs’ defence on the back foot while retaining space wider for their own outside backs.
I expect the Tahs to really lift for this game and the return of Phil Waugh is crucial for them. The key for the Reds will be the speed of ball available to Genia and Cooper.
It’s usually the case that derbies are conservative affairs but I won’t be surprised if this turns out to be a really open game — and one of the best this season.
My tip: Reds by 10 in a high scoring game.
