Previews: Aussie matches Round 5

Rebels v. Crusaders      AAMI Park, Friday 14th March  7:40pm (AEDT)

The Rebels will be reeling after the Force ran in four tries in half an hour against them last week and kept them scoreless until the last play of the day.

It was their own fault: they had made six changes to their side which had been impressive in beating the Cheetahs the week before. Coach Tony McGahan said he was interested in looking at other players, but one suspected that he fancied beating the Force with whatever side he dished up; so why not kill two birds with one stone?

The Rebels will not be afraid of the Crusaders but they will have to dominate them in the rucks as they did in Christchurch last year. And there can’t be any of their old disorganised defence, susceptible to breakouts, which was the case in the first half last week. And they will have to string some phases together also.

They have some stats on their side: they beat about twice the amount of defenders than the Crusaders do and thus make double the breaks,  Their lineouts have been more successful than the Saders because the Kiwis have faded in that area this year: a big surprise.

The Crusaders will be wary of the Rebels because they lost to them in 2012 and were lucky to beat them last year in Christchurch. They needed six penalty goals from Tom Taylor to do so because Melbourne scored three tries to two.

They are hardly ever in great form at this time of the season and they lost their first two games.  They got a skinny one point win last week only when a Stormer committed a remarkably stupid infringement with five minutes to go and Taylor slotted the penalty goal.

The Saders have been running to a fault, coast to coast—not south to north, but east to west—sideways. They pass the ball more than any other team in Super Rugby but the runners aren’t making meaningful metres.  Dare I say it? They need to get a decent kicking game back in their arsenal.

The teams

Rebels—McGahan, his bum well and truly bitten last week, is running on the same team that beat the Cheetahs the week before; so I won’t mention all the changes.

They lack a decent tight-head lock and their 4, 5, 6 and 8 are skilled workhorses rather than bruisers, but their front row is sound. Hooker Laefa looks decent so far.

Their backline is better this week and only lacks a flyhalf who is a Wallaby candidate.

Crusaders—Coach Todd Blackadder is starting his third different first-five in four games. Colin Slade settled the side down when he came on last week and he will be instructed to get a good kicking game going.

Scrumhalf Andy Ellis replaces the injured Willi Heinz. Winger Nafi Tuitavake returns from injury replacing Reynold Lee-Lo who is dropped from the team. Other backs are moved around, and Israel Dagg returns to the fullback spot, which could be influential.

There is one change in the pack: hooker Ben Funnell starts because Corey Flynn has broken his cheekbone.

They are missing their great players: Richie McCaw and Dan Carter.

As well as kicking from hand a bit more they will have to improve their lineouts, because their success rate is only 81% compared to 90% for the Rebels.

Aussies should have a look at the name of no. 23. Nemani Nadolo. He’s the cousin of Lote Tuqiri and the brother of Chris Kuridrani of the Reds, If it’s confusing he’s changed his name since he played for Nudgee College,

After being in the Waratahs’ stable and playing for Randwick and Manly, Nadolo played in France, England and Japan. I last saw him play for Fiji on their 2013 end of year tour, against Italy. The 130kg giant was dynamite because he was playing in the position I always thought he should play—inside centre.

Prediction—The New Zealand press has been giving heaps to the Crusaders, and their captain Kieran Read, and although they are second-last on the table and there is a whiff of decay around them, I expect them to recover.    Crusaders by 10

Crusaders—1. Wyatt Crockett, 2. Ben Funnell, ,3. Owen Franks, 4, Luke Romano, 5.Sam Whitelock, 6. Luke Whitelock, 7. Matt Todd 8. Kieran Read (c), 9. Andy Ellis, 10. Colin Slade, 11. Johnny McNicholl.  Reserves—16. Codie Taylor, 17. Tim Perry, 18. Nepo Laulala, 19. Dominic Bird, 20. Jordan Taufua, 21. Mitchell Drummond, 22. Kieron Fonotia, 23. Nemani Nadolo.

Rebels—1. Toby Smith, 2. Pat Leafa, 3. Laurie Weeks, 4. Hugh Pyle, 5. Luke Jones, 6. Sean McMahon, 7. Scott Fuglistaller, 8. Scott Higginbotham (c), 9. Luke Burgess, 10. Bryce Hegarty, 11. Tom English, 2. Mitch Inman, 13. Tamati Ellison, 14. Lachlan Mitchell, 15. Jason Woodward. Reserves— 16. Shota Horie, 17. Max Lahiff, 18. Paul Alo-Emile, 19. Cadeyrn Neville, 20. Colby Fainga’a, 21. Ben Meehan, 22. Angus Roberts, 23. Telusa Veainu.

Highlanders v. Force     Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, Saturday, 15 March 2014  5.35pm (AEDT)

The Highlanders are going to be one of the sneaky teams of Super Rugby this year. They shocked the Blues in their opening game of the season with a bonus-point win and led the Chiefs for most of their second match, before going down by two points to the Super Rugby champions.

Apart from the Smiths, The Clan are a bunch of Neville Nobodies compared to other Kiwi teams. They play above their weight but they lack the killer blows that the good sides have—despite having good possession against the Chiefs, they could not put them away.

The Force responded to the occasion last week and gave skipper Matt Hodgson a great result on his 100th game. But after their first magic 30 minutes they were imprecise and let the game drift.

They seem they play their games in absolutes. They were completely poor in the Brumbies game (at home) and were down 0-24 at 40 minutes, yet were entirely brilliant in their start against the Rebels, being ahead 32-0 at 27 minutes.

The teams

Highlanders—They have good discipline, however they miss more tackles than any other team and have the worst lineout in Super Rugby.

Rising star Malaki Fekitoa moves from the wing to his best position at centre. Kurt Baker gets his 11 jersey and Winston Stanley is dropped from the side. 7. Shane Christie comes back into the run-on team whilst John Hardie moves to the blindside. Gareth Evans is omitted from the matchday squad..

Force—As ever the backrow is the strength of their pack. Their scrum results are below average but not much worse that the Clan; however they lack physical presence in things like the carry, the maul and the counter-ruck—and the counter-counter ruck.

They don’t surrender too many turnovers and unlike the the Highlanders, they have one of the best lineouts in Super Rugby. Since The Clan has the worst, I’d be kicking for touch a bit.

Flyhalf Sias Eberson is having some good moments these days and Junior Rosela had once of his best games for a while last week. But they have to provide more worthwhile opportunities to 12. Kyle Godwin who is like a swan amongst the ducks.

Prediction—It was a fairy-tale game in Perth last week but they won’t be in the Land of Oz come Saturday. They will be in the Darkness of Forsyth Barr stadium and I expect the pragmatic Highlanders to play their Southern NZ game and win at home.    Highlanders by 10

Highlanders—1. Kane Hames, 2. Liam Coltman, 3. Chris King, 4. Jarrad Hoeata, 5 . Joe Wheeler, 6. John Hardie, 7. Shane Christie, 8. Nasi Manu (cc), 9. Aaron Smith, 10. Lima Sopoaga, 11. Kurt Baker, 12. Shaun Treeby, 13. Malakai Fekitoa, 14. Richard Buckman, 15. Ben Smith (cc) — [cc = co-captain.]. Reserves—16. Ged Robinson, 17. Matias Diaz, 18. Craig Millar, 19. Josh Bekhuis, 20. Elliot Dixon, 21. Fumiaki Tanaka, 22. Hayden Parker, 23. Phil Burleigh.

Force—1. Pek Cowan, 2. Nathan Charles, 3. Kieran Longbottom, 4. Sam Wykes, 5. Wilhelm Steenkamp, 6. Angus Cottrell, 7. Matt Hodgson (c), 8. Ben McCalman, 9. Alby Mathewson, 10. Sias Ebersohn, 11. Nick Cummins, 12. Kyle Godwin, 13. Junior Rasolea, 14. Luke Morahan, 15. Jayden Hayward. Reserves—16. Heath Tessmann, 17. Tetera Faulkner, 18. Ollie Hoskins, 19. Adam Coleman, 20. Brynard Stander, 21. Ian Prior, 22. Zack Holmes, 23. Marcel Brache.

Brumbies v. Waratahs

See the hilarious preview of this game here.

 Click on right arrow for preview of Sharks v. Reds