Preview: Reds v Hurricanes

The Reds start a two match tour of New Zealand this weekend with another ANZAC-themed game against the in-form Hurricanes. This will be a make or break tour for the Reds as they run the risk of falling out of touch of both the conference and competition leaders.

The Form

Whilst the Canes have won four games, just one more than the Reds, it is recent form that sets the two teams apart. Queensland have four losses (three by less than three points) in their last five games, while the resurgent Hurricanes have inverted this performance in winning four of their previous five games.

It is a scary proposition for the Reds, playing in the Shaky Isle for the first time this season, as the Canes are competition leaders in some critical areas.  They have the most tries with 26 (Chiefs are next with 23); Most clean breaks with 67 (Chiefs next with 61); Most carries at 1,009 (Tahs next on 1,004); Most metres with 4,074 (Chiefs next on 3,927), and most defenders beaten with 193 (Chiefs at 151 are next).

From an individual perspective, there’s no prize for guessing where the Canes play their game as backs Julian Savea and Alapati Leiua are competition leaders in the areas of clean breaks and defenders beaten.

So…yeah…good luck containing that Reds!

The Teams

The Reds: Injuries have prevented the Reds from making too many changes to the one the looked out of touch against the Brumbies, at least in the first half, in their last outing two weeks ago. In a potential fillip for the Reds the enterprising, yet raw, JJ Taulagi finds himself back in the starting team in place of Rod Davies. Whilst Rocket has been one of the Reds’ stats leaders this year, his error rate has been an issue of late.  The other change to the backline is Mike Harris taking Ant Fainga’a’s spot at 12 to re-establish his combination with Ben Tapuai.

Ben Daley also returns for the Reds, at loose-head prop necessitating a switch to tight-head for James Slipper. It’s an interesting move from the Reds as Daley has looked to struggle in the scrum for the last couple of years. There is, however, no questioning the work rate and leadership he brings to the team and perhaps the powers that be felt that the ‘lessor’ scrum that is the Hurricanes may be a sound game to bring him back. Meanwhile, while his brother is dropped to the bench, Saia Fainga’a is again rotated back into the starting line-up with James Hanson now wearing the 16 jersey.

Captain James Horwill has copped some flack for his form this season however, after a slow start, he has improved every game and it’s fair to say his line-out play is career-best at the moment. This game will be Kev’s 100th for his beloved Reds and if there was ever reason for the Reds to raise the bar a few notches, then to do so for their passionate leader should be cause enough. It’ll be like the Ashes series all over again with Quade Cooper and Will Genia set to notch their own centuries in coming weeks, but its for Horwill that the team really needs to lift.

The Hurricanes, as you would expect from a team in form, have made minimal changes from their last outing where they ran in five tries against the hapless Blues.  Big Bopper Ben Franks comes back into the team at loose-head prop, with Reggie Goodes relegated to the bench, which will only strengthen the Canes. Again, there is plenty of flash and dash across the Hurricane backline, but there is also absolute class in some key positions, namely through their skipper Conrad Smith and flyhalf Beauden Barrett. With the experienced Corey Jane back on the wing, the slick Leiua has recently been moved to inside-centre which has only added to the danger levels in the team.

Don’t take that as a slight on the Hurricane forwards. There’s some quality there too, led by Aussie Jack Lam at open-side. Lam has been a stand-out for the Canes this season (as you would expect for an Australian openside) and has been recently joined on the back of the scrum by the dynamic Victor Vito and the very physical Faifili Levave. Whilst likely All Black hooker Dane Coles is in the pack and back alongside Franks, the set-piece is not convincing and may be seen as a vulnerable area the Reds could attack.

In the end they will play an expansive game, focused more on quick recycles rather than constant off-loads, with Barrett taking the ball forward and ensuring his team are constantly battering the advantage line via their strong and quick-footed backrow and backline.

Key match-ups

It is cliched, but Cooper v Barrett is critical. Both are the men who strive to create opportunities for their outside backs, and that’s how both teams aim to play.  From a statistical perspective, their is some strong grounds for comparison between the two. Both have played eight games, with Cooper playing every minute of every game whilst Barrett has just missed seven minutes. More significantly they’ve had similar carry numbers (QC – 83; BB – 84) but it’s how they’ve used this ball that provokes intrigue. Beauden has made more metres, made more clean breaks (almost three times as many), passed more and kicked almost twice as much as Quade. Cooper has beaten more defenders and made more off-loads, with seven try assists to Beauden’s three. To me this points to a disparity in the effectiveness of the Reds’ outside men. Cooper is beating the defenders and off-loading, but nothing’s happening outside of that. Ball handling has been poor and finishing disappointing. It’s also threatening to be a one-man band. While the Canes have danger across the park, the Reds seem overly reliant (perhaps more so than usual) on Quade weaving his magic.

Saia v Dane – the battle of the hookers is another key battle that will go some way to determining the outcome of this game.  As mentioned above, Saia has been in and out of the starting team, rotating with James Hanson. Alternatively, Dane Coles has continued to establish himself as his country’s first choice hooker in a series of eye-catching performances. Two stand out plays from last week (an enterprising dive for the try-line that was unfortunately disallowed and a try-saving tackle on Benji Marshall all within about five minutes off each other) showcase his value to the team.  Saia was the cornerstone of a strong forward-oriented form turnaround by the Reds in their second half comeback against the Brumbies in their last outing, that including a tighthead pushover scrum – a rare commodity in elite rugby. Saia and Daley’s selection is acknowledgement from the Reds’ coaching staff that the Canes will play an up tempo game that will require a mammoth effort from the hard working QLD pack to counter.

Out on the wings is another match-up that will be worth the price of admission. Most pundits acknowledge the abilities of the in-form Julian Savea, and Will Genia has this week proclaimed his abilities to all and sundry. Savea’s wing partner is the ever-experienced Cory Jane, a player renowned for his big match performances against Australian teams. Combating them will be a massive challenge for the two 20 year old QLD wingers in CFS and JJT! But don’t expect this to be all one-way traffic. Feauai-Sautia, for as little as he has played this season, has been his team’s most dangerous player every game he’s played. Even JJ Taulagi’s most ardent fans will admit that he has only shown glimpses of his potential in his limited time on the field this season, but his potential is real and this type of open game may suit his quick footed style perfectly.

Prediction

The bookies have the Canes as strong favorites and it’s hard to go against them. The Reds haven’t won in Wellington since 1998 and have won only two of the last eleven meetings between these teams. This will need to be the best performance by the Reds all season, by some way, to snare the win.

Hurricanes by 8

Team lists

Match details

Date and time: Saturday 26 April @ 19:35 (local time)

Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Referee: Mike Fraser

Assistant referees: Garratt Williamson & Shane McDermott

Television Match Official: Vinny Munro