With seasons on the line, who will prevail at the Stockade?
The Rebels finally get to host an Australian team. And we’ve got a good one this week – the NSW Waratahs.
I love a Victoria versus New South Wales battle. In anything. It doesn’t matter what it is; sport, cooking, knitting, culture wars. As a proud Victorian, I LOVE beating New South Wales at anything. And of recent time, we’ve been getting pretty damn good at it.
When it comes to Rugby, the Tah’s have a pretty good track record against us. They have defeated the Rebels on all but two occasions.
However, last time they met, the Rebels walked away from Allianz Stadium with the Weary Dunlop Shield tucked under their arm. I get the feeling the Rebels won’t be too keen to give it up on Friday.
The Weary-Dunlop shield – on the line this weekend
This week is a little more special for the Rebels as they play their 50th home game, who also played in the first Rebels home game.
The Form
Last Round:
- Rebels 14 – Chiefs 27
- Waratahs 12 – Brumbies 28
Much has been written of the Rebels horrible start to season 2017; a tough draw, key injuries, and off-field distractions on the future of Super Rugby. Two heavy losses led many to write off the Rebels, but a gutsy performance against the Chiefs gave fans some hope. Scores were level with 10min to go, but the Chiefs bench depth helped them get over the line. Still, it was a much-improved performance from the Rebels. They now need to convert their new-found confidence into a win, and quickly.
While the Waratahs are safe from the chopping block, it hasn’t spurred them into any on-field success this season. Starting off with a scrappy win against the Force, the Waratahs have lost their last three matches. Two in the republic, and one at home to the Brumbies. Many pundits are pointing the blame at an unsettled backline, with the absence of Foley key to their problems. However, it’s probably easier to blame a mix on injuries (Foley’s included), poor form and players out of position.
The Teams
For the first time since Round 10 2015, the Rebels have named an UNCHANGED SIDE! Wow, that felt fantastic to type. Say it out loud, Rebel fans. This news is just more than some luck finally going our way. It’s a show of support for the starting 15 who nearly caused a massive boilover last weekend. The players are starting to click, the intensity is lifting, and we’re converting it into on-field results.
As an added bonus, Lopeti Timani, together with recruit Dominic Day, have been included on an extended bench. Mitch Inman also returns from injury.
Timani – one man wrecking ball.
For the Waratahs, Daryl Gibson was under immense pressure to wield the axe, and that’s just what he’s done. Foley returns to 10, Folau back to 15, Kellaway to 11. Horwitz and Horne in the Centres, and Jake Gordon get his first starting cap at 9. For his indifferent form, Phipps moves to the pine. In the forwards, Hanigan replaces the injured Dempsey.
Key contests
Where are the key contests for this weekend?
Folau v Debreczei
The master fullback returns to his preferred position (well, Cheika’s preferred position for him anyway). Has the experiment worked at 13? Probably only mixed results. Is it working this season? No, definitely not. Izzy is just not having the same impact there and needs to go back to 15 and find some form. Hopefully, the part returns in time for the internationals.
Flashback 12 months, Jack Debreczei was flyhalf out for form. Today, he’s starting to play some good football at fullback. With all the extra space, and without the added playmaker pressure, it appears he’s getting his mojo back. He could very well be a long-term option there.
Stirzaker v Gordon
In a big vote of confidence, Jake Gordon starts his first game at scrum half. After a breakout NRC 2016 campaign, he has taken his limited chances and made the most of them. With Phipps out of form, Jake gets the chance to stake his claim in the starting team. As the new kid, he will have a massive target on his back. The Rebels flankers will have him firmly in their sights.
Jake Gordon – on his way to maiden meat last weekend.
It’s been frustrating for Stirzaker; a bad loss (and a concussion) in round one, a drubbing in round two, and the inevitable question of his on-field leadership. He put in a much better performance against the Chiefs, playing a more composed role as the captain and the scrum-half. Nick will look to exploit the relative inexperience of this opposite, but Jake will be waiting for him.
Hanson v Latu
So, who wants to be the Wallaby hooker? Chibba or Latu?
If it were a battle of the best beards, then Chibba would win, hands down. Sadly, there is more to it.
Latu has been a shining light in an otherwise poor NSW pack. His set piece is solid, his lineout work has been reliable, but it’s been his work-rate around the park that has impressed. His temper seems calmer this year, with a reduced penalty count. Hopefully, he’s managed to rid himself of those brain snap moments.
For Chibba, he’s starting to find the form that made him a Wallaby. After a rough start, he played an excellent game against the Chiefs. Scrums and lineouts were solid, and he proved to be a real menace with ball in hand. I think the big change is the lineout; as an example, I didn’t see one missed lineout from the Rebels against the Chiefs. This is the kind of reliability the Rebels need, and it just might earn him another Wallaby cap.
In an important milestone for Chibba, he plays in this 100th Super Rugby game. Well done big man.
Chibba – 100 Super Rugby games this weekend.
Prediction
Both teams are desperate for a win to get their seasons back on track.
Putting the first two rounds behind them, the Rebels showed some good signs against the Chiefs but just fell short against a class side. But, you could see the spark was back in the Rebels, optimism has returned to the Stockade. The looked like a team that wants to win, and boy they came that close to doing it.
The Waratahs, on the other hand, look like they are struggling to find any form or rhythm. The absence of Foley hurt their backline, so his return this week should unlock the backline firepower. Folau, Horne and Kellaway should all improve this weekend.
However, with their confidence back, I feel the Rebels can win this weekend. If they play like they did last weekend, they will beat the Waratahs.
Rebels by 7
The Teams
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Waratahs
1. Tom Robertson
2. Tolu Latu
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Dean Mumm
5. Will Skelton
6. Ned Hanigan
7. Michael Hooper (c)
8. Jed Holloway
9. Jake Gordon
10. Bernard Foley
11. Andrew Kellaway
12. David Horwitz
13. Rob Horne
14. Reece Robinson
15. Israel Folau
Reserves:
16. Damien Fitzpatrick
17. Paddy Ryan
18. David Lolohea
19. Dave McDuling
20. Michael Wells
21. Nick Phipps
22. Cam Clark
23. Taqele Naiyaravoro
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Rebels
1. Fereti Sa’aga
2. James Hanson
3. Laurie Weeks
4. Culum Retallick
5. Steve Cummins
6. Jordy Reid
7. Colby Fainga’a
8. Amanaki Mafi
9. Nic Stirzaker (Captain)
10. Jackson Garden-Bachop
11. Sefa Naivalu
12. Reece Hodge
13. Tom English
14. Marika Koroibete
15. Jack Debreczeni
Reserves (one to be omitted):
Pat Leafa
Tom Moloney
Tyrel Lomax
Dominic Day^*
Lopeti Timani
Jake Schatz
Ben Meehan
Mitch Inman
Ben Volavola
^Super Rugby debut
*Rebels debut
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Details
Date: Friday, March 24
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Kick-off: 19:45 AEST
Referee: Brendon Pickerill
Assistant referees: Glen Jackson, Jordan Way
TMO: George Ayoub
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