Reading the form tea-leaves for this game is pretty difficult. The Highlanders beat the previously unbeaten Chiefs last week, after giving up TWO scrum penalty tries.The Waratahs beat the Reds in a game widely rated as diabolical.
On that basis maybe the Highlanders should be at $1.10 and the Tahs $5.00 underdogs.
Highlanders form:
Despite knocking over this year’s Super favorites, the Highlander’s form has been average so far. They had the bye in round one, lost by six in round two to the slow-starting Crusaders and beat the hapless Reds by seven in round three. They have had injury and suspension issues, particularly in the tight five.
Their win over the Chiefs showed great heart (as you always expect from the Clan) but Cruden’s goalkicking and the team’s poor handling realistically gifted them that game.
Waratahs form:
Forum members commenting on the last game as they watched used terms like “teeth-grindingly bad”, “dire”, “vindaloo consequences” and “MAKE IT STOP!”. Cooler heads in the review thought that maybe the Tahs defence was pretty physical and their attack was still just getting their timing right, but I don’t really buy it.
The Waratahs need a major improvement in their handling and execution if they are going to figure in the finals this year. Everyone wants a piece of them as champions; they won’t be given the luxury of being dark horses in the first half of the comp this year.
The Backs:
The Highlanders have a high quality backline with the Smith’s, Sopoaga, Treeby, Fekitoa and Osborne absolute top class players. Osborne and Treeby are totally under-rated and they won the game last week with their magnificent try that started inside their own 22. They have to be starved of space and the ball if the Tahs are to overcome them.There can be no turnovers like last week or it will be shut the gate.
Matt Carraro had a blinder last week but all the talk post-game was Izzy at 13 on attack. The Waratahs are beginning to bring a new paradigm to their play in the third year of Cheika’s rule. The ability of players to play in different positions in different game situations will give their opponents nightmares.
Never mind Folau, what about Foley at 13? I saw it a couple of times last week. Not only are the individual players capable of tearing your team apart, but defensively you are not sure which player you should be tracking. Its going to open up holes in the defensive line through misreads, for sure.
But its only possible now because of the time the backs have had together and the quality of the “top four inches”. I’m loving it; and those who say its just hiding players weaknesses don’t understand just how much of an advantage it is.
The breakdown:
Shane Christie is back after injury this week, which will strengthen the Highlanders backrow with Dixon going to blindside. The Highlanders are always competitive here and the contest will be fierce. The Waratahs won the breakdown last week but this week will be tougher. I’m expecting both teams to cancel each other out in this area.
Not many have noticed, but Horne last week hit more rucks than half the forwards. Does this mean he has become the ninth member of the pack?
The set-piece:
This, I think, will be the point of difference. The two lineouts are not world-beating but will probably win most of their own ball. It is at the scrum where I expect there will be trouble. The Waratahs appear to have made major improvements in their starter’s scrummaging this year. The Highlanders scrum, which is not highly rated with everyone on deck, will be severely under-strength due to injury and suspension. I expect it will be under pressure from the start and could easily give up more penalty tries this week.
The new tighthead reserve prop for the Highlanders is Pingi Tala’apitaga. Spare a thought for the commentators; they’ll be spending some hours practising their pronunciation on that one.
The outcome:
If the Tahs can repeat their form in this game last year, when they obliterated the Highlander backline in their long march to the title, they’ll win comfortably. Everything depends on their execution.
Waratahs by 12
Highlanders v Waratahs
Josh Hohneck 1 Benn Robinson
Liam Coltman 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau
Ross Geldenhuys 3 Sekope Kepu
Tom Franklin 4 Will Skelton
Joe Wheeler 5 David Dennis (captain)
Elliot Dixon 6 Jacques Potgieter
Shane Christie 7 Michael Hooper
Nasi Manu 8 Wycliff Palu
Aaron Smith 9 Nick Phipps
Lima Sopoaga 10 Bernard Foley
Patrick Osborne 11 Rob Horne
Shaun Treeby 12 Kurtley Beale
Malakai Fekitoa 13 Matt Carraro
Waisake Naholo 14 Peter Betham
Ben Smith 15 Israel Folau
Reserves
Ash Dixon 16 Tolu Latu
Brendon Edmonds 17 Jeremy Tilse
Pingi Tala'apitaga 18 Paddy Ryan
Mark Reddish 19 Sam Lousi
John Hardie 20 Mitchell Chapman
Fumiaki Tanaka 21 Stephen Hoiles
Marty Banks 22 Brendan McKibbin/Taqele Naiyaravoro
Jason Emery 23 Jono Lance/Ben Volavola
Location: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar 17:35
Referee: Craig Joubert
Assistant Ref 1: Kane McBride
Assistant Ref 2: Mike Lash
TMO : Vinny Munro
