England may not have won a match against the Springboks since 2006, losing eleven and drawing one since then, but they will be favourites to take this one out at Twickenham on Saturday.
Both teams replaced their coaches after the 2015 Rugby World Cup [RWC]; one team prospered and the other one didn’t.
The form
England
New head coach, Eddie Jones, has been like a breath of fresh air for the Roses, who won their first Grand Slam in Six Nations since 2003 under him, and then “white-washed” the Wallabies 3-0 away from home. He has implanted belief, and challenged them to take responsibility.
They haven’t played together since June but Jones lifted them for Six Nations after a similar interval following their RWC despair; so there is no reason why they can’t perform when their last series was a triumph Down Under.
And, just quietly, their fans will be thinking of their first perfect year since they won all six tests in 1992.
South Africa
This proud rugby nation was shamed by the All Blacks, their great rivals, in their last outing, losing 15-57 in Durban. NZ scored nine tries to nil, including four in the last ten minutes, after they played most of the game in Bok territory and feasted on possession.
Earlier in The Rugby Championship the Springboks were unconvincing in home wins against the Pumas and Wallabies, and lost their away games to them. In June they suffered their first-ever home loss to Ireland, a depleted side, and were relieved to win the decider with a couple of extra penalty goals.
They used many of their likely test reserves last weekend against the Barbarians and although the team finished well to tie the game, few fringe players made a case to start against England.
Springboks in Durban – shamed by the All Blacks
Team news
England
England will be without their locking pair in Australia, George Kruis and Maro Itjoe; the injury substitutes are Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes. Blindside flanker Tom Wood, once described by Jones as “distinctly average” in the RWC, will switch to the open side and help to blunt the physicality of the Boks.
The main wingers from the Australian tour, Anthony Watson and Jack Nowell, are injured, and replaced by speedsters Marlan Yarde and Jonny May. Outside centre Elliot Daly will start in a test match for the first time, moving Jonathan Joseph to the bench.
Reserves, tight head prop Kyle Sinckler, backrower Nathan Hughes, and ex-Rabbitoh centre Ben Te’o, will earn their first test caps if they get a run.
Pieter-Steph du Toit – athletic enough to play flanker
South Africa
Springbok coach, Allister Coetzee, has a backrow crisis with a stable of regulars either injured or not available.
The Boks lost some of their physical mojo this year; so Coetzee is attempting to retrieve it by switching burly Willem Alberts to the open side and moving athletic lock, Pieter-Steph du Toit, to the blind side. Gigantic Lood de Jager, who was impressive in the RWC but lost potency in 2016, takes du Toit’s spot in the second row.
Scrumhalf Faf de Klerk was brittle defending against the All Blacks in Durban and is replaced by Rudy Paige returning from injury. Flyhalf incumbent, Morne Steyn, is not in the touring party; so Pat Lambie, who played only three Super Rugby games last season and two tests at fullback, will wear the 10 jersey.
Debutant outside centre Francois Venter had an excellent year for the Cheetahs and replaces the impressive Jesse Kriel, one of the casualties from the Barbarians’ match last weekend. Versatile Ruan Combrinck was spectacular for the Lions in their campaign to the Super Rugby final and, though rusty, will substitute for Bryan Habana who did not recover from a club injury.
Billy Vunipola – dominant ball runner
Key players and match-ups
Billy Vunipola v Warren Whiteley
The battle of the no. 8s will be an absorbing contest of different types playing the same position. Billy Vunipola, one of the best in Six Nations this year, usually knocks over the first tackler at least, yet can offload smoothly. Warren Whiteley is the arch linker who keeps attacking moves alive.
The centres
There are contrasts in the midfield also.
England will use a second flyhalf, Owen Farrell, at inside centre. Outside him expect Elliot Daly to drift with the ball coming to him, as O’Driscoll did, and to make his supports look good. He can also hoof the ball a long way and will give a second left-footer option to augment fullback Mike Brown.
In contrast to Farrell, Damian de Allende is more dangerous as a ball runner with a good eye for a gap but can also breach a tackle. At outside centre Francois Venter doesn’t have the class of Daly but at least he will know that his direct opponent is also starting in a test match for the first time. He’s an intelligent and physical midfielder whose decision-making and vision have improved markedly.
The lineouts
These should be quality contests. In the white corner we will have, representing the England Roses, skipper Dylan Hartley, throwing to Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes and Tom Wood. In the green corner, representing the Springboks, is Dead-Eyed Dick skipper Adriaan Strauss throwing to Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager and Pieter-Steph du Toit.
My money’s on the green corner.
Springbok lineout v Barbarians last week – my money’s on them
Prediction
Eddie Jones said that the Springboks just have to beat England to go home heroes, but there are few reasons to expect a victory parade. The burden of representing South Africa is difficult these days, and although players can always rise above such matters, the records reveal that the Boks have lost four of their last five test matches.
None of the England team have experienced a win against South Africa, but they have won nine games in a row this year and look fearless.
England by 15
England – won a Six Nations’ Grand Slam and thrashed the Wallabies in Australia
Team lists & details
[one_third last=”no”]
England
1. Mako Vunipola
2. Dylan Hartley (c)
3. Dan Coles
4. Joe Launchbury
5. Courtney Lawes
6. Chris Robshaw
7. Tom Wood
8. Billy Vunipola
9. Ben Youngs
10. George Ford
11. Jonny May
12. Owen Farrell
13. Elliot Daly
14. Marlan Yarde
15. Mike Brown
Reserves:
16. Jamie George
17. Joe Marler
18. Kyle Sinckler
19. Dave Attwood
20. Nathan Hughes
21. Danny Care
22. Ben Te’o
23. Jonathan Joseph
[/one_third]
[one_third last=”no”]
South Africa
1. Tendai Mtawarira
2. Adriaan Strauss (c)
3. Vincent Koch
4. Eben Etzebeth
5. Lood de Jager
6. Willem Alberts
7. Pieter-Steph du Toit
8. Warren Whiteley
9. Rudy Paige
10. Pat Lambie
11. JP Pietersen
12. Damian de Allende
13. Francois Venter
14. Ruan Combrinck
15. Willie le Roux
Reserves:
16. Bongi Mbonambi
17. Steven Kitshoff
18. Lourens Adriaanse
19. Franco Mostert
20. Nizaam Carr
21. Faf de Klerk
22. Johan Goosen
23. Lionel Mapoe
[/one_third]
[one_third last=”yes”]
Details
Date: Saturday, November 12th
Venue: Twickenham, London
Kick-off: 14:30 GMT, 01:30 AEDT(Sun)
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Assistant referees: Andrew Brace (Ireland), Glen Jackson (NZ)
TMO: Jon Mason (Wales)[/one_third]
