At the end of Round 7 Australian teams had played three games against New Zealand teams to be 3-0, but in their ten games against South African teams they were only 3-7.
There had been nine Aussie derby games played also.
There will be one game each against Kiwi and SAffer teams this weekend.
Brumbies v. Kings
The Brumbies got a scare in their last game but they have to be more ruthless against a fledgling Kings’ team. To be credible title contenders they have to win this match well; they won’t say so but not getting a bonus point win will be a disappointment.
The Kings started their debut year brilliantly by beating the Force, but despite coming at opponents for 80 minutes in every game, they haven’t earned a single point for the table since then, bye points aside. And in the last three games they have given up 17 tries to opponents and all 15 match points.
Last week the Brumbies were fortunate to win against the Bulls, as were the Reds a week earlier, but they needed help from their opponents. For the second week in a row the men from Pretoria kept to their laager rugby style and ignored the attacking prowess of their backs until, too late, they realised that they had to do something different to win the game.
The Kings wouldn’t go away against the Hurricanes. They ended up scoring 30 points against the Canes, something that the Crusaders couldn’t do, nor the Highlanders or Reds at home, for that matter.
That number of points come Friday night may be enough for the Kings to win the game because the Brumbies have scored more than 30 only once this year.
Team changes: The Brumbies have made several changes and they include four new run-on players.
Pat McCabe makes his return from injury at inside centre and Christian Leali’fano moves from there to flyhalf, to set up a combination with McCabe that was successful last year. Matt To’omua is rested after receiving attention from three confrontational South African teams in the last few weeks. New crowd favourite, Jesse Mogg, is still not fit to play.
As expected, Ben Alexander is rotated to be the LHP and Scott Sio becomes a reserve after starting in three games. Lock Scott Fardy is out of the matchday squad with a foot injury and Fotu Auelau joins the pack, with Peter Kimlin moving from the blindside flank to take up Fardy’s second-row position. Wallabies’ hooker Stephen Moore is rested on the bench and 21 year-old Siliva Siliva gets his first start.
Siliva didn’t play Super Rugby last year because he had a dickey knee, but when he recovered from surgery he performed well in a mid-week game against Wales from the bench.
For the Kings, Ronnie Cooke switches to wing to replace Hadleigh Parkes, who broke his arm last week, and Waylon Murray moves into Cooke’s outside centre spot. Argentina scrumhalf Nicolas Vergallo takes over from Shaun Venter, who will nurse a sore ankle on the bench.
Form no.8 Jacques Engelbrecht is rested as a reserve in favour of Cornell du Preez, who started in the position at the start of the season, but has had a tight hamstring. There is also a tour rotation of the hooker, THP and one of the locks.
The Plans: The Brumbies had to counter the Bull’s laager kicking rugby last week without their best long punter, Jesse Mogg. Against the Kings they will aim to get back to their preferred style of holding the ball for long periods then getting it wide after opponents are sucked into pick and go defence.
The Kings are getting their share of possession and territory, and have established some good passing efficiency, but they have to improve their breakdown work and tighten up defence around the rucks
The match-up: The Kings lineout general Steven Sykes, the de facto leader of the team and its inspiration, and his lineout unit, against the Brumbies unit.
Opponent to watch out for: He may be the youngest player in Super Rugby this year, and there’s not much of him, but 18 year-old Sergeal Petersen is more than a just another fast young winger. He has a bit of rugby nous in him that will take him a long way in the sport, and he is scrappy and pugnacious. Don’t give him any space.
Prediction: The Brumbies might have been jet-lagged after their return from the RSA last week and will probably be sharper in this game.
Although the Kings have been competitive in all but one game in their debut year, and will be playing for 80 minutes – Brumbies by 20.
Hurricanes v. Waratahs
Both teams are playing middling rugby and have the middling Conference standings they deserve.
Last week the Hurricanes played with panache in the 1st half against the Kings but an intercept try in the second half disguised a listless display after oranges. Although they scored six tries and racked up 46 points, they shipped 30 points themselves.
Last Sunday the Waratahs’ new interest in attack was blunted because they couldn’t get enough ball and what they did get was slowed down by the Force backrow. Their victory was earned by good defence but they should have been more physical in the collisions against the narrow Force attack.
Team changes: For the Hurricanes, new All Black hooker, Dane Coles, has been sidelined by thumb ligament damage and will be replaced in the starting team by bulldozer Moto Matu’u. Likewise lock Mark Reddish will replace the experienced lock Jeremy Thrush who will be sitting in the stands with a sprained ankle.
Openside flanker Karl Lowe is replaced by debutant Ardie Savea, who was the NZ Schools captain when they lost to Australian Schools at Knox College two years ago. Lowe is absent supporting his friend, the Western Force’s Chris Eaton, who lost his wife in a car accident last week.
Victor Vito has been named but has a calf injury and has been bracketed for the match, as have two other Canes’ players.
The Waratahs’ starting team is unchanged except that THP Sekope Kepu will run on instead of Paddy Ryan who will play from the bench. In the reserves Cliffy Palu returns from injury replacing last week’s debutant, Jed Holloway, and Luke Holmes is named instead of Tatafu Polota-Nau who was knocked out last week.
The Plans: The Canes will have noticed that pick and go, and slowing down the ball worked against the Tahs last Sunday but they will be more worried about themselves than they will be about their opponents. There is a bit to worry about too: they have been enigmatic this season and have lost the sizzle they had last year. Better execution will be the plan against the Tahs.
The Canes breached the advantage line repeatedly against the Kings; so the big men of the Tahs will have to make dominant tackles. This will help arriving defenders get the hit in the rucks. There is more to defending a ruck than trying to poach the ball.
The match ups: If Vito isn’t fit the Hurricanes could have a brand-new combination in the backrow playing against a settled Waratahs’ unit. Within that it will be interesting to see how exciting prospect Ardie Savea, the brother of All Black winger Julian, performs opposing current Wallabies’ opensider, Michael Hooper.
The pairing of the 21 year-old Hurricanes’ halves, 9. TJ Perenara and 10. Beauden Barrett against the more mature Brendan McKibbin and Bernard Foley in the same positions for the Tahs, will also be absorbing
Opponent to watch out for: Human wrecking ball Julian Savea has always enjoyed using tacklers as speed bumps but he is becoming a better footie player these days, and that makes him a more dangerous package.
Prediction: The Hurricanes have won three on the trot but their form has been has been patchy when ineptness and poor decisions have affected their play. The Waratahs have won back-to-back victories but have misfired some of their backline salvoes, and their big forwards have been passive and sometimes slow-thinking. At the Cake Tin – Hurricanes by 5.
Force v. Rebels
This is a must-win game for both teams if they want to get up the table in the Australian Conference.
Except for a poor second half after oranges in Port Elizabeth the Force have played consistent, hard rugby and will feel that their results are not a good reflection on how well they have played.
The Rebels have just gone through one of their worst experiences since General Robert E. Lee sent Pickett’s division up Cemetery Ridge to get butchered at Gettysburg, and will have to build on a modest comeback they had in Bloemfontein.
Last week the narrow Force attack was unproductive in Sydney and when the ball went wide they lacked penetration. They kept coming back at the Waratahs but lacked the killer blow.
The Rebels improved on their performance in Durban where they didn’t show up to play. They were still in touch at the 60 minute mark against the Cheetahs but then shipped three tries, two of which were scored when Luke Jones was in the sin bin.
Team changes: The Rebels switch from a 5/2 to a 4/3 bench. Scott Higginbotham becomes captain because Gareth Delve is being rested because of chronic soreness. Luke Jones moves to the blindside flank and Cadeyrn Neville takes his spot in the second row.
Elsewhere in the pack Scott Fuglistaller returns to start on the openside flank replacing Jordy Reid who returns to the bench after making an impressive run-on debut last week.
In the backs, inside centre, Lachlan Mitchell, still has a badly corked leg and is replaced by Rory Sidey. Winger Cooper Vuna returns to the team in the reserves after being stood down last week.
The Force changes three in their run-on side. Richard Brown is rested with Angus Cottrell rotated into the backrow and likewise Pek Cowan is replaced by Keiran Longbottom who starts his first game for about a year. Both Brown and Cowan drop out of the matchday squad.
In the backs Will Tupou returns to his fullback spot and Alfie Mafi goes back to his left-wing position at the expense of Junior Roselea who drops out of the squad after getting a run last week. The Force played without a specialist scrumhalf reserve last week but Mick Snowden backs up Mathewson against the Rebels.
The Plans: The Force will hit them with everything they have, and they have something to hit them with around the rucks. Their narrow attack may work against the Rebels but coach Foley is looking for more variety in their play. They will also have to be better under pressure: in making the right decisions when they have the ball in space, and being more disciplined on ruck defence.
The Rebels will have to find a way to play two halves of rugby per game, (again), and especially when they don’t have the ball. Even when they tackle well their defensive pattern under pressure has too many gaps and zig-zags in it for many needed tackles to be attempted. A part of the problem is in establishing a proper defensive line when they turn the ball over, but they also seem to be over-tired in the final quarter of games and have trouble getting into the right places to defend in.
The Force lacks experience in some backline positions but unless the Rebels have a plan to fix their defence, the likes of Mathewson, Godwin and Mafi could wreak a bit of mischief as they nearly did before oranges in Round 1.
The match up: With three of the Four Musketeers of the backrow starting – Hodgson, Cottrell and McCalman – the Forcers should have a breakdown advantage over over the Rebels’ backrow of Higginbotham, Fuglistaller and occasional blindside flanker Jones.
Opponents to watch out for: The Force will know that they have to contend with one of their old team mates James O’Connor and his bagful of tricks. At the same time they can’t get on their heels to wait and see what he is going to do or he will be through them like a dose of salts.
The Rebels will have to nail His Supreme Madness Hugh McMeniman early on the run because Mad Mac can breach the tackle line when ostensibly stopped.
Prediction: The Rebels will be in Perth on their way back home from South Africa and we remember the ambush the Reds experienced when they did the same thing last year.
The Rebels had a problematic tour and their coach is under fire. They will be underdogs with the bookies despite beating the Force in the opening round.
They’re not kicking goals well and you can never count on the Force winning a game at home when they are the favourites but – Force by 8.
