Preview – Aussie matches in Round 13

At the end of Round 12, Australian teams had played 13 games against New Zealand teams to be 8-5, but in their 14 games against South African teams they were only 4.5-9.5. This adds up to a record of 12.5-14.5 against foreign teams — or 46%.

There had also been 13 Aussie derby games played.

There will be two games against Kiwi teams and two against SAffer teams this weekend.

Chiefs v. Force

Nothing much has changed for the Chiefs because the Blues and Crusaders, below them in the NZ Conference, both won in Round 12 and have lost only one more game than they have. Going down to the third lowest team in the competition this week cannot be contemplated by the Chiefs because they will want to get a jump on one of their Kiwi rivals next week when they play each other.

The Force have no fears about facing highly ranked teams and whilst they are out of finals contention they will have no concerns about facing last year’s champions away from home.

Last week the Chiefs led by 17 points early in the second half against another lowly ranked Aussie team but could have lost the game after they shipped five tries to the Rebels. The week before they allowed the Sharks to come back also.

The Force had another heartbreak finish when the Reds scored a try with seven minutes to go to snatch a draw.

Team changes: Scrummie Tawera Kerr-Barlow returns from injury for the Chiefs and has Gareth Ansombe playing first-five outside him. Robbie Robinson plays fullback, which has been Anscombe’s normal position this season. Aaron Cruden, usually the starting first-five, has some niggles and rests on the bench after an arduous campaign.

Saveca Tokula, who has played for the Chiefs before and for NZ Sevens, has been called in to play centre because of injuries to Richard Kahui (shoulder-season), Charlie Ngatai (hamstring), Andrew Horrell (ankle) and Tim Nanai-Williams (groin). Winger Patrick Osborne, who ran rings around several Reds’ tacklers after coming from the bench a few weeks back, starts on the left wing giving Tikoirotuma a break on the bench.

The big news in the forwards is that THP Ben Afeaki is healthy again, and is moved straight into the starting team. LHP Toby Smith and hooker Hika Elliot are rotated from the bench to run on.

The Force go for consistency and make only two changes to their matchday 22. Alby Mathewson gets a well-earned rest on the bench and Brett Sheehan starts. Fullback Jayden Hayward also runs on with the first XV and Sam Norton-Knight rides the pine.

The Plans: The Force won’t be scoring the kind of tries that the Rebels scored last week, but the Chiefs have to respect all of their opponents from now on because they are becoming vulnerable to comebacks and if the Force get a sniff they won’t go away.

The Force have to find a way to score tries when they get the ball wide because there are usually openings away from the Chiefs’ ruck. A narrow attack, and narrow defence for that matter, won’t beat the Chiefs.

The Matchup: It won’t get any better than feisty Force scrummie, Brett Sheehan against the excellent Tawera Kerr-Barlow: both will be starting in a match for the first time after being injured. Kerr-Barlow has been missed by the Chiefs since he broke his jaw, and whilst Mathewson has been one of the Force’s best players this year, Sheehan will be raring to go with this opportunity to have his first start in 2013. He was injured playing for the Wallabies at the end of 2012.

Opponent to watch out for: Whilst he probably won’t ever be an All Black, flyhalf Gareth Anscombe is in the form of his life, albeit wearing the 15 jersey mostly. One of the buys of the season after being de-listed by new Blues’ coach, John Kirwan, Anscombe, who turns 22 on the day of the match, has been an in-form ball runner and ball player for the Chiefs – and can he kick a goal!!

Prediction: Despite resting big guns Cruden and Tikoirotuma, the Chiefs will not lose a lot by playing Anscombe at first-five and the mercurial Osborne on the wing.  They should not have too much trouble with the Force attack and although the visitors’ defence is uncompromising in the middle of the field, the Chiefs usually find a way to score tries wider out — Chiefs by 12

Reds v. Sharks

The Reds are have lost opportunities to get to the head of the Australian Conference in the last three weeks and need a good victory, not only for table points but also to get their mojo back.

The Sharks have lost four consecutive matches and have to stop the rot by chalking up a win, then another; then see how the land lies after that.

Last week the Reds could not capitalise on their chances for the third week in a row.  Despite hogging possession and playing a lot of rugby in the Force half of the field, they could not score a try until seven minutes before the final siren.

In Round 12 a depleted Sharks’ team suffered the unwanted distinction of being the first team in 2013 to lose a game to the Highlanders. To their credit they went for the winning try at the end of the game instead of taking opportunities to kick a penalty for a draw, but they couldn’t get over the line.

Team changes: Reds’ captain James Horwill is stood down as a precaution before the Reds’ departure for the RSA on Sunday. He is recovering from a knock to the jaw received in Perth last week. The valuable reserve Ed O’Donoghue takes his place in the second row and Will Genia skippers the team.

The other changes in the forwards are planned: James Slipper returns to start at THP, and Greg Holmes moves over to LHP.

In the backs, winger Rod Davies returns from a hamstring tweak just in time to replace Dom Shipperley, who has a back complaint. Ben Tapuai gets a rest at last and Anthony Fainga’a moves to his inside centre spot, whilst 19 year-old Chris Feauai-Sautia runs on as outside centre.

The Sharks have two more injured players unavailable after the Highlanders’ game.

Frans Steyn is replaced at outside centre by JP Pietersen moving in from the wing whilst Piet Lindeque gets to start there for the second time in three weeks. In the backrow Jean Deysel replaces the other injured player, newcomer Lubabalo Mtembu, with Keegan Daniel switching to no.8 to make room for him on the flank.

Elsewhere in the pack, THP Jannie du Plessis rests on the bench and Wiehan Herbst switches to the tighthead side, which he prefers. J CJ van Rensburg moves from the bench into the starting team to play LHP.

There is some rare good injury news for Sharks’ coach John Plumtree because Willem Alberts is named for the first time this year. He is on the bench after returning from a pre-season shoulder injury and playing two games in the Vodacom Cup.

The Plans: The Reds have to play wider than they have been doing recently; otherwise the plans will be the same for both teams: just execute what they are doing better because their standards have dropped. At least the Sharks have a valid excuse because of the new combinations they have to use week to week, but the Reds have to re-invent themselves.

The Matchups: Although the visitors have three Springbok loosies running on, and another (Alberts) on the bench, the Reds settled backrow unit should be more effective. They are playing in their natural positions, whereas Daniels does not bend the line when he plays no.8 and Coetzee plays better on the blindside flank than on the openside.

The midfield battle should be interesting because both are new combinations. It will be the younger guns, Anthony Fainga’a and Chris Feauai-Sautia, against the big Sharks’ centres Meyer Bosman and JP Pietersen. Worth a look.

Opponent to watch out for: The Reds will want to knock over impressive young lock Pieter-Steph du Toit at every opportunity. The 20 year-old has the engine of a Sevens player, the hardness of a tight-five forward and a joy of contact; yet is so mobile that the South Africans are not sure whether to play him in the second row or backrow. He is destined to be a Springbok for a long time.

Prediction: The Reds are still playing rugby from the bunker but they are earning wins or obtaining draws, which their visitors cannot do. Although the Sharks are their bogey team they should be too good for the visitors, who have a dozen good players unavailable and are therefore a shadow of the team that was runner-up last year — Reds by 10