Round 10 of the Super Rugby season sees the Brumbies host the Rebels in the national capital. The Rebels are yet to taste victory in Canberra, whilst the Brumbies look to consolidate top spot in the Australian conference.
Last Week
Last week the Rebels came off a torrid encounter against the bye, finding solace at the annual Club Ball.
Prior to that, it was a relatively unconvincing but relieving win against a 14-man Reds outfit. They will be happy to get the win, but not happy with their 20-minute contested warm-up, nor with not punishing the Horwill brain-fart with a bonus point win.
The Brumbies surprisingly became the Blue’s first scalp of the year despite the herculean effort of David Pocock. Christian Leali’ífano got the yips with one easy penalty goal attempt which was heart-breaking in the wrap up.
Compounding the woes of Bernie’s men were the injuries to Matt Toomua and Scott Sio. Both will leave gaps in key positions and make the Brumbies vulnerable, particularly in the backline. Leali’ifano is a handy playmaker option, but moving him creates problems wider out.
The Teams
With injuries to Toomua, Kuridrani, Mogg and Dargaville, the Brumbies have had to select probably the weakest backline for some time. White has been rested on the pine, which leaves Speight and Tomane as the key weapons in the backs.
Despite the loss of Sio, the Brumbies will field a formidable pack boasting lots of Wallaby talent. The scrum, lineout and rolling maul will all be key weapons of choice against the Rebels. Pocock is starting to hit some monstrous form and will look to tighten his grip on the Wallaby 7 jersey.
David Pocock – breakdown warrior on the prowl
The Rebels have taken the rare luxury of naming an unchanged side for this clash, maintaining the 6 – 2 split on the bench. Clearly, Totality Tony has seen the battle will be won in the forwards back and wants firepower in reserve.
The Rebels will be mindful to stamp their authority on the pack early, otherwise the Brumbies will capitalise and dominate. Where the Rebels have an advantage is the backline: the experience of Harris and Ellison combined with the speed of Naivalu and English could cause major problems for the Brumby backs.
Key Match-ups
Flanker wars
This is common theme in my posts. I love the prospect of a Fardy/Pocock v. McMahon/Fugistaller battle royale at the breakdown. Like a pack of seagulls fighting over the last chip: no mercy shown by anyone securing the pill. If the Rebels cannot support the tackled player it will likely turn into a Pocock masterclass.
Standing in his way are McMahon and Fugistaller; two equally formidable breakdown terriers that can turn opposition ball into Rebels’ gold. But, never take your eye of the ever-lurking Scott Fardy – a break-down pest dangerous enough to bleed tries from teams.
Oh, those Higginbotham and Butler characters should go alright against each other too.
Outside, Outside
Tamati Ellison plays his 100th Super Rugby game against the fearless Henry Speight. Tamati has made the Rebels 13 jersey his own, whilst Henry doesn’t look out of place whilst keeping the number 13 warm for his good mate Kuridrani.
Henry has raw speed and a handy sidestep, but he will face an experienced midfield wizard that can turn him inside out. Tamati brings a calmness to the Rebels backline and he will be out to capitalise on the relative inexperience in the Brumbies’ midfield combination.
This man is playing his 100th Super rugby Match. Get around him.
Player to watch – Sefania Naivalu
After recording some amazing stats in his last match, ‘Super Sefa’ will be keen to seal his place in the starting team. Sefania is a humble guy who is either running with fearless speed, stopping certain tries or setting up his teammates for their own. If this guy gets some space, the Brumbies might be spending a bit of time under their own posts.
Sefa doing his best ‘James who’ impression
Fearless Prediction
Whilst I’m all for fairytale endings, I think the Brumbies will bounce back hard after their banana peel game last weekend. The Brumbies will play a strong forwards game and will set the early pace, looking to catch the Rebels pack napping.
If the pack becomes an even battle, the Rebels will look to exploit the weakened Brumbies’ backline and score an unlikely victory. The logical side of me says the Brumbies will make good use of their remaining players and scratch out a narrow victory. I hope my logical side is not right this weekend.
Brumbies by 5
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ACT Brumbies
1. JP Smith
2. Stephen Moore (c)
3. Ben Alexander
4. Rory Arnold
5. Sam Carter
6. Scott Fardy
7. David Pocock
8. Jarrad Butler
9. Michael Dowsett
10. Christian Lealiifano
11. Joe Tomane
12. Nigel Ah Wong
13. Henry Speight
14. Lausii Taliauli
15. Robbie Coleman
Replacements
16. Josh Mann-Rea
17. Allan Ala’alatoa
18. Ruan Smith
19. Blake Enever
20. Ita Vaea
21. Jordan Smiler
22. Nic White
23. Rodney Iona
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Melbourne Rebels
1. Toby Smith
2. Pat Leafa
3. Paul Alo-Emile
4. Luke Jones
5. Lopeti Timani
6. Sean McMahon
7. Scott Fuglistaller
8. Scott Higginbotham (c)
9. Nic Stirzaker
10. Jack Debreczeni
11. Sefanaia Naivalu
12. Mitch Inman
13. Tamati Ellison
14. Tom English
15. Mike Harris
Reserves:
16. Tom Sexton
17. Cruze Ah-Nau
18. Tim Metcher*
19. Cadeyrn Neville
20. Colby Fainga’a
21. Jordy Reid
22. Luke Burgess
23. Bryce Hegarty
* Denotes potential Rebels debut
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