Half time in the 2014 Super rugby tournament is a chance to review how each team is going and what the prospects are for the teams this year. At this stage it is still very open and I think any of thirteen teams can still make the play-offs if they can just string a few wins together.
Someone stringing five wins on the trot as the Force have done already will certainly insert themselves into the six. Because the competition is so even, I suspect that you might still make the six with seven losses providing you regularly picked up bonus points along the way (last year six losses got the Cheetahs into the finals).
South Africa
The weakest conference in respect to team strength with only the Sharks scoring good match points. The conference weakness is likely to guarantee the Sharks a top two spot even if they lose a few on the road, but its hard to see how another SA team can make the final six:
The Sharks have only lost one match so far but have played all but two at home, where they have certainly had the rub of the green with the officials. Injuries have not disrupted them badly. They are playing a conservative South African style that’s not exciting but very effective. They are pretty unwatchable, you need to be a masochist to turn up to see them play, as the Cheetahs game attested, but the Sharks fans are turning up in droves.
After next week they have only one home game left and two tough games on the road against the Brumbies and Crusaders and a tough home game against the Bulls, their only conqueror so far this year. They dodge the Chiefs and Force entirely. Its hard to see them missing the top two from here.
The Bulls look to be the second best South African team, but are in the middle of a very tough tour and could struggle to make top six from here. They are genuinely trying to change their style to a more ball-in-hand way of playing but I suspect they’ll need this year to develop it before they will be able to play it consistently.
The Lions are way further up the ladder than expected but have had a lot of help from the officials and are starting to show their real lack of form. They will struggle from here, especially on the road, and may not win another game.
The Cheetahs still attack like they did last year but their defence has been terrible – they average 28 points a match conceded. They won’t make the six from here.
The Stormers have had just two home games so far and the road trip from hell (Crusaders, Chiefs, Brumbies and Reds) but they are too far behind now to make the six. Will be a nuisance to everyone but coaching issues will keep them mid table. They will have a great chance next year when the home/away pairings reverse.
Australia:
The strongest conference with all teams cannibalising each other. Each have had their moments of brilliance and times of disappointment. I suspect all Australian teams might finish in the top ten.
The Brumbies have lost only twice but, as in previous years, cannot seem to accumulate bonus points. This could well lose them a top two finish (again) and find them travelling to make the final. Worse, if the Waratahs keep winning with bonus points they’ll find themselves with no home semi-final. The next six weeks have them playing the Chiefs, Crusaders and Sharks followed by the SA road trip. This will decide their season.
The Waratahs continue with their exciting up-tempo game which is great to watch but difficult to play well. When it works its sensational but teams with fast line speed and choking defences have caused them lots of grief. They should make the six; how they go against the Reds and Brumbies plus the NZ teams away will define their season.
The Force have been a revelation this year with their conservative, counter-punching style and five wins in a row record. They could well be the third Australian team in the top six, especially if they can beat the Bulls next week. They have some great Australian talent coming through, several of which are home grown; they probably just need a quality flyhalf to finish them off.
The Reds have had five losses so far but three of those have been by less than four points and several losses have been dogged by officiating controversies. Injuries have hit their backline hard and meant that Genia and Cooper have not had as many good attacking options as they had expected. They could be a real nuisance to other high-flying teams on the run in to the finals but may not make the six.
The Rebels have been competitive this season but have had lots of close losses, especially on the road. They just need the confidence to make the right decisions at the right times. They also need a champion flyhalf, Hegarty is too inexperienced to lead them around yet, though I think in two years time he will be very good. They are unlikely to make the finals from here as they still have their SA trip in front of them.
New Zealand:
The conference for the slow starters, with the Chiefs on top but all teams closely bunched. Like the Australian conference, they seem to be canniblising each other.
The Chiefs have only lost two games this year but have seldom looked impressive in their wins. They have drawn twice after letting their opposition get away to huge leads and coming back with a rush at the end.The loss to the Force suggests they struggle against committed defences and the next five weeks (including Brumbies A, Waratahs H, Hurricanes A) will tell us whether a threepeat is on the cards.
The Crusaders started slowly, even by their standards, but won twice in SA (no one else has even looked like doing that). They still have not been impressive and will need their big guns back to make a run at a home final. They are the one team though that can win finals on the road.
The Hurricanes have looked like their inconsistent selves this year, lost both SA games but have managed a good win against the Crusaders and some good looking rugby. They have already lost four games but have picked up five bonus points so far and this is keeping them in the race. They are still a chance for the finals.
The Highlanders are playing much better than last year without many stars, though Fekitoa is getting rave reviews and the Smiths are firing. Their SA tour starts next week and they face some competition big guns after that, but they have got a match in hand. They are a good honest team that might just fall short this year but they have looked very respectable.
The Blues are on the bottom of the conference and really haven’t looked like a top six team but they have a lethal back three and could yet come good. Coaching and recruitment issues seem to be holding them back. They’ve got a lot of matches against the top eight teams in the second half of the season and I don’t think they’ll make the finals.
The crystal ball:
I have looked at each game in the second half of the comp and tried to gauge what the result might be and whether bonus points might accrue. In doing so I have given home teams extra weight because teams are finding it really difficult to win on the road this year. For several teams, based on their recent form, I have not allocated any four try bonus points. Additionally, the Australian and New Zealand conferences are very tight without any ‘gimme’ games, only the SA conference looks predictable. The big problem with this analysis is the margin for error; I have never even gone close to topping a tipping competition.
With those caveats, here’s a table predicting where things may finally end up:
| Team | Points at R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 | R17 | R18 | R19 | TOTAL |
| Sharks | 31 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 50 |
| Brumbies | 25 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 48 |
| Chiefs | 24 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 53 |
| Waratahs | 24 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 50 |
| Force | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 46 |
| Crusaders | 22 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 52 |
| Hurricanes | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 40 |
| Highlanders | 19 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 34 |
| Bulls | 19 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 41 |
| Lions | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| Blues | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26 |
| Reds | 16 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 39 |
| Rebels | 16 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Stormers | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 30 |
| Cheetahs | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22 |
If those results are as predicted we have a final top six as follows:
- Chiefs (53)
- Sharks (50)
- Waratahs (50)
- Crusaders (52)
- Brumbies (48)
- Force (46)
The top five is so tight that a couple of different results to those predicted would turn that six on its head; so I won’t make any predictions about finals or winners. It certainly will be edge-of-your-seat watching for the second half. Some would suggest that for fanatical supporters a doctors visit to procure stress tablets might be a wise precaution.
