As the Green and Gold (both the team and the site) gear up to take on The Darkness on Saturday week, coach Ewen McKenzie has some touch Wallabies selection decisions to make.
But let’s put it in context – these are good dilemmas to have. Not too long ago, depth was a (the?) perennial problem in Australian rugby. For all the flak copped, the ARU deserve to be congratulated for pushing for Super Rugby franchises in Perth and Melbourne, which have broadened the player pool substantially. The NRC will only add to that. Good work suits.
Nevertheless, we’re at a crossroads. The stats consistently show that the Wallabies problem against the All Blacks isn’t a failure to get enough of the ball. Take the match in Wellington last year, which epitomised this pattern. The score was 27-16. The All Blacks made 116 tackles, and the Wallabies only 71. Moreover, both teams missed roughly the same number (13 to 12).
This suggests two things. First, the ABs are more clinical at putting points on the board with the ball they have. Second, the Wallabies aren’t doing enough in defence: they’re not stopping the ABs through containment defence patterns, nor are they putting them off their game with dominant hits and ruck work. They’re neither having their cake nor eating it.
Or, to put it more simply, containing the All Blacks, minimising our own error rate, and trying to nudge a win hasn’t worked. It hasn’t worked for years. We instead should be thinking about confrontation: taking the game to the All Blacks on both attack and defence, much as the Waratahs have done this year. As always in rugby, the golden rule should be to do whatever the opposition doesn’t want you to do.
Wallabies Selection
A lot of this has to do with game plan, which we’ll look at next week. But selection is also key, and for this match there are three key areas where the Wallabies intentions will be signalled.
Lock
The safe choice would be a combination of Simmons in one spot, and either Carter or Horwill in the other. But where is the Mountain? Again, the ABs aren’t going to be put off by a conventional pairing. Been there done that. But time and again this year we saw top level teams, with sophisticated defence patterns, with experienced players, simply fail to deal with the Skelton threat. He also offers a lot in maul defence with those big levers and a generally intimidating presence in defence and at the ruck (see his two big dominant hits in the Super Rugby final). He has to be somewhere in the 23.
I hear the counterargument: Skelton’s shortcomings at the lineout. He is a bit of dead weight there, to be sure. If the man at 6 could step up to the plate there, I think a Simmons – 6 – Palu lineout might be enough, though not ideal. The problem is that the guy on the blindside who is close to a top level lineout operator and a great quick off the ground, front of the lineout jumper, Scott Higginbotham, seems to have forgotten what good consistent form looks like.
And Scott Fardy, the man most likely to wear 6, hasn’t been allowed to develop into a real 1 or 2 option by the Ben Mowen dominated Brumbies lineout. If Fardy can show some real progression there – which given his height, build, athleticism, and weight, he could be able to do – then that might open things up for Skelton in the coming months and beyond.
The other issue here is balance. Losing Tatafu Polota-Nau was bad. Very bad. Specifically, it erodes the Wallabies’ reserves of physicality on the one hand and experience on the other. The Tahs had three guys on the field who could almost always get the ball over the advantage line: Palu, Potgieter/Skelton, and TPN. One could argue that much of Palu’s renaissance has been due to the fact that he hasn’t had to do it all alone this year. For me, that’s yet another reason to have Skelton in the mix, though it does nothing to pay off the experience deficit.
Centres
This is a doozy. I’ve never seen Kurtley Beale playing with as much confidence and poise as in the Super Rugby Final. And he needs both to be effective. It’s worth noting what was written on this site back in March:
“[P]laying Beale at 12 is a huge liability; he can neither defend that channel strongly, nor take a crash ball. He’s not a 12, never has been a 12, and pretending that can play there doesn’t change those facts.”
The moron who wrote that was me. That being said, it is Michael Cheika’s style of play that allows Kurtley to play at 12. He still isn’t a great one-on-one tackler by any estimation and he still isn’t a guy who can get you over the advantage line when you’ve lost momentum. The logic is clear: if Beale is picked at 12, then the gameplan needs to allow him to do so.
Ewen is at heart a pragmatist. He likes to be versatile in his game plan, able to switch patterns and tactics. For that reason, I think it’s clear he’ll go with the better rounded Toomua at 12, just like I think he’ll go with Carter and Simmons as the locks.
Wing
I can’t believe we’re talking about a shortage of wingers. This is Australian rugby, isn’t it? But we’re definitely scraping the bottom of the barrel. On one wing, this probably means Adam-Ashley Cooper will play on the wing and Tevita Kuridrani at centre.
But on the other, there is a clear choice. Either McKenzie can go with a “blind side” winger – Rob Horne or Pat McCabe – or an “open sider” – Joe Tomane and Peter Betham. None of these players have yet really proven themselves consistently at test level.
For me, the pick has to be Horne. A guy who can make dominant tackles and doesn’t miss them either; he’s missed only 3 all season long, usually defending in the centres. In attack, he’s hardly put a foot wrong all year. Again, I think the selections would send a message about the physicality that the team should be wanting to play with. And again, I think McKenzie will go with the conservative option and pick McCabe instead.
In New Zealand
Of course, it’s not only the Australian coaching staff nervously seeking to make the “right” choice. Across the dutch, the All Blacks are all but committed to selecting a bunch of veterans who aren’t the form pick in their position.
The form 15 in New Zealand isn’t Israel Dagg, and hasn’t been for a long time; it’s Ben Smith. The form outside centre isn’t Conrad Smith, but Malakai Fekitoa. The form fly-half, with Dan Carter out, isn’t Aaron Cruden, but Beauden Barrett. And, as all too often, the form inside centre isn’t Ma’a Nonu, and there isn’t a clear back-up. Ryan Crotty had a woeful Super rugby final and it isn’t surprising that he finds himself on the outer.
Hooker still looks like a major problem area. Dane Coles has been largely unconvincing and they’re keeping Keven Mealamu around until he actually needs to go on the pension. And a strong case could be made that Ben Franks has consistently outperformed his brother at tight-head this year and deserves a shot.
And of course there’s Rutchie – who missed more tackles in the Super Rugby final than any other player, who missed a regulation effort on Michael Hooper in the 78th minute to allow the Tahs out of their half, who gave away the decisive penalty…
He’s a strong player, but he isn’t playing at his usual high standard. If he can’t pick up his form over the next two months, that 2015 World Cup might be a bridge too far.
The reality is that the ABs are looking a bit vulnerable. The question is whether Ewen has the kahunas to pick a team that will really take it to them, or simply look to contain and hope to eke out a victory.
What are your picks for next Saturday?
