The tipping this week looks pretty straight forward on paper, save for a couple of fixtures that will be a bit tricky. So I thought this week I would take a look at a couple of the easier tips and see if I can’t make you change your tips.
Last Week
Before I do though we need to have a quick look at last round. I’ll say it straight up, I had a ‘mare last week. When I logged on I expected to see carnage in the tipping ladder, or maybe that was wishful thinking. Looks like I was the only one though as there was little change at the top of the log. The Rhumdoggs holds the lead by one point over Ozymandias with Tassie Lad and Lindommer just shy in third spot.
The No Brainers
Looking through the tipping stats for this week, there are three games that interest me greatly. These games all have close to 3/4 of the support favouring one side over the other. They certainly don’t seem to be ‘sure things’ but there is a clear favourite nonetheless. These are the ones that interest me, so let’s dive in to the stats, crunch the numbers or maybe just get a feel for the ‘vibe’ of the games to see if I can’t sway a few of you.
First up, it’s the Blues hosting the Reds. The Blues are the form side in this match up, they are at home and are short priced favourites at around $1.30 depending on where you look. The Reds on the other hand have been their own worst enemy, have lost the last 3 on the trot and are a disappointing 3 and 6 for the season. Like I said, easy tip. Or is it? While the Blues got a good win over the Waratahs last week their previous form has been mixed. Heavy losses to two of the competitions front runners but some good wins over some of the lower placed teams.
The Reds last three losses have all been to teams in the top 6 but in all three games they had opportunities that they failed to capitalise on that could’ve given them a different result. Looking at the history books you need to flick through the pages for a while to find the last time the Blues beat the Reds, way back in 2010. Add to all of this the fact that the Reds are all but out of the race for a playoff so all of the pressure will be on the boys from Auckland. Quade will be unshackled in his 100th and the result is clear: Reds by enough.
The second game I want to have a look at is the other Friday night game; Rebels vs Sharks in Melbourne. The odds in this one are closer but not by a lot with the difference probably being just the home ground advantage being taken into account for the Rebels. 1st plays 12th. Sharks have only had 2 losses while the Rebels have only managed 3 wins. Pfft this is almost Joker territory.
I’m not so sure. No one will dispute that the Sharks are one of the form teams in the comp but their big loss to the Highlanders at home on the weekend just goes to show that they are not infallible. They have also had somewhat of an easy run so far having only played 2 games away, that’s right 2! Better still those two away games were against South African opposition so their travel has been next to nil. Their position on top of the log may have been slightly inflated by their favourable draw and we’ll find out for sure in the coming weeks.
The Rebels on the other hand love a good David vs Goliath battle and grow another leg when playing at home. They have the players and the ability to play a similar game to the Highlanders last week and will be looking to topple the competition leaders – nothing less. Rebels by 6-10.
The last game I want to check out is the Waratahs vs the Hurricanes. The Tahs are at home, they are about $1.50 favourites and about 3/4 of you have tipped them to win but I don’t actually know why in this case. The Canes started the season slowly but that was probably not that unexpected when their first 2 games were their SA Tour but quickly turned it around to be now sitting on top of the NZ conference and on a 4 game winning streak.
In stark contrast, the Tahs have coughed and spluttered their way into the top 6 and apart from back to back wins at the start of the season they have alternated between wins and losses since. The only stat in their favour is the loss last week means a win is likely this weekend. The key thing to look at though is how the two teams are scoring. In the last 5 starts the biggest score from the Tahs was 22 pts with an average of 16 points per game. The Canes lowest score in their past 5 matches is 25 pts with an average of nearly 32 points per game. If I didn’t sway you on the other two games I reckon I might have here. Hurricanes by plenty!
There’s some food for thought anyway, something to mull over. Don’t think too long though, the window to change your tips is closing……..
The Joker
There is only one game this week that you should even consider locking in your Joker on. I know it, you know it, hell even the Lions know it. I’ve been burned before this season backing the Chiefs with my Joker but the fat lady has already commenced her warm up. Chiefs to win at a canter. That’s my lock of the week. Get on it.
