Last weekend’s results have changed things somewhat. Previous to round 10 I had reasonably thought that around 40-42 points would be needed to make the finals but with some of the front runners giving up vital points, I reckon we are now looking at around 38-40 points being the magic number.
The stumbling Tahs have done themselves no favours while the Brumbies are now the shining lights of the Australian contenders based purely on form over the last two rounds. The Ponies however are in the grip of an injury crisis which may well cruel their chances.
The Force rebounded well after the disappointment of getting done on the siren against the ‘Canes with what looked to me to be a ‘finals dress rehearsal’ against the Tahs. They have beaten every other Australian side – but will they be able to call themselves the best Australian team of the Super 14 come the end of the season?
Tahs – Currently 28 points
After consecutive losses and a bye this weekend, the Tahs look well and truly in the chutney. A few weeks ago the equation was pretty simple, win their remaining home games and snag a win or two against the Jappie easy beats, the Lion and Cheetahs, and the finals beckoned.
Not so simple now, it seems.
The Tahs must win at least two of their last three games, more than likely with a smattering of bonus points, to even get close to making it. This situation seems inconceivable when you consider their position at the start of round 9.
A positive for the Tahs is the parallel decline of the Sharks. The game in Durbs will no doubt be pivotal for both teams but the Tahs must be considered a big chance with their collective big game experience
Verdict – The Tahs are more than likely to beat the Cheetahs and the Lions but their lack of try scoring ability might limit their chances of bonus points. I reckon they will grind the flashy Sharks into the dirt with their attrition based style – so three wins from three for me.
Three wins gives them 40 points and see them finals bound with an away semi the best they can hope for.
Brumbies – Currently 27 points
The win against the Stormers was based on emotion; the win against the Bulls was based on heart. Without doubt they are the sentimental favourites of everyone but sentimentality counts for nothing when you look at the draw they face.
The Brumbies have 4 games to secure around 13 points which means they can drop one game, and this it will probably be this weekend against the ‘Canes.
An away game against the worse than pathetic Reds plus a home game against the erratic Blues will probably count as wins. The way the Reds and Blues defend it could well turn into a bonus point victory for one or both of these games.
Their Waterloo looks to be in the final round when they face the Chiefs in the Waikato. This will be a tough task with the Chiefs probably chasing a win to finish top of the table.
Verdict – The Brumbies hopes ride on the fact they can win two tough games in Nu Zulund. I think they might win against the Blues but the Chiefs game looks a bridge too far.
Two wins and some bonus points will give them around 38 points which is borderline but, being the sentimental bloke I am – fuck it, they’re in with an away semi!!
The Force – Currently 23 points
The bi-polar Force continue to defy the form guide and confound tipsters. After the surrender against the Canes they bounced back with a great win against the Tahs.
Depending on which Force team takes the field this weekend, they should have a 5 point free hit against the Lions, but after this things get tricky.
Two challenging games in South Africa against the Bulls and Stormers pose problems for the exiles from the West and there is no respite in the final round when they face the Clan at Subi.
The Force play better away from home but it is hard to see them getting the required 16 or so points from their remaining games.
Verdict – For the Force to make the finals they would have to string together four weeks of consistent effort, and, given currently they struggle to do this week-to-week, they may as well book the end of season trip now as around 35 points looks the best they can do.
The glass is half full!!
OK, I may be over-estimating the chances of the Brumbies, but what is life if you don’t have dreams?
The Tahs look as if they will limp into the finals but the prospect of an away semi is the best they can hope for, and, with three of the preceding weeks on the road, that’s as far as they will go.
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<span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="2534 https://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/?p=2534">16 Comments
Loving your work JC.
I was really interested to see how this pans out, because although I’d assumed everything was now fucked for the Aussie teams, the bunching of the table seems to have helped us out. Oh for another Chiefs or Sharks loss (I think…)
On your analysis the Tahs hopes seem to still be alive, but with recent form the performing Cheetahs and Lions could both be challenges at home. SHIT!!
Brumbies FTW!!!!
Ahem. Agreed.
Dreaming, its season over for all the aussies. top 4 chiefs,sharks,crusaders,hurricanes.
What odds would you give us?
over like Cullen’s career?
why don’t you go make out with your south african cousins? Or is that just what YOU dream about?
I heard on the grapevine (from some kiwi mates…oh, acquaintances….of mine), that Christian Cullen the All Black was gay?
oi calm down over the cullen remarks, he is a legend in my mind,however my wife said im gay as i rave on about him all the time.
Gagger you can have 15 points start brumbies over canes actually make it 17,and the tahs well they can still make it but i just dont think they will.
So you’re saying we have a chance!!!
I’ll live with that!
phew thank god you didnt take the points start brumbies,i was drunk on past glories of cullen/lomu when i said that. gee i hope tahs do make it for you diehards but its so hard winning 3/3 in sth africa.
Although we at G&GR appreciate the views of our contemporaries, we take issue when you try to hose something down that was obviously intended to incite aggressive and numerous contradictory replies. We didn’t create your sign in name for you so we can’t apoligise about including it in our own drunken patriotism.
In short it’s game on until one of us is left red faced and rubbing rosaries for redemption in the trinations.
Pedro’s last blog post..Australia Prevail 2-0, One Foot In South Africa
Dammit too late I would have given you good money on that! $100 still tempt you?
Oops taken back if that injury list cited below is true, that’s incredible if so.
Refereeing from the other night may cost the force. Disallowed tries would have given them a bonus point and it also allowed the waratahs to get the loser’s bonus point and the waratahs are one of the teams the force would have to overcome. We will be in a good position to judge the brumbies after this week’s game. if they can come away with a win then they are in the box seat of the australian teams looking at their run home.
Looks like the Brumbies will be without Shepherdson, Chisholm, Hand, Timani, (Mackay of course), Lealifano, Fairbanks, Rathbone (possibly Mafi) and Gerrard, which is the best part of a pretty good XV. I am not getting my hopes up for this weekend.
Cullen only have it partly right. This weekend will show where the Brutes are. At the moment I’ll rate them better to the Sharks to make the semis and we all know what can happen to the Chiefs. I’d love them to make the semis but IF the Brutes tremble them this weekend, their season can end in nothing as quick as you can say knive!
Think we’ll see a Brutes, Chiefs, Sharks, Hurricanes semi finish at this stage.
I love ‘balance’ in the competition, so my ultimate goal is to see the teams from all 3 SANZAR nations make the top 4 spots.
So far, after 11 rounds of action, there are no Aussie teams in the top 4; 2 each from NZ (‘Canes-Chiefs) and SA (Bulls-Sharks).
Well, so the priority is to see one of the 3 Aussie sides still in contention (save the Reds) to overthrow one of the current top 4 sides and make it through!
So shut up chriscullen, you piss me off!
The best possible outcomes in round 12 for the above goals;
1. ‘Canes to beat the Blues and DON’T give those Bluesers a single bonus point
2. Lions to beat the ‘Saders and surely kill off those Cantab sheepshaggers’ top 4 hopes
3. Waratahs MUST beat the Cheetahs, no further things needed
4. Brumbies MUST beat the Reds, need I say more? Queenslanders are gonna be the traitors of the country if they beat ACT; killing off their own country’s contenders
5. Sharks to beat the Highlanders; for Aussie hopes though, it should be other way round but I personally like the Sharks
6. Force MUST beat the Bulls, no question needed
7. Stormers to beat the Chiefs; those freakin Waikato bastards must learn their true selves; mid-tablers and NOT the top 4 material!
I like the cut of your jib SANZAR man!