Welcome back everyone. I hope you’ve all found the time to wash your scarf and get your voice back after last weekend’s Six Nations action. If you haven’t, well, suck it up – we’re in the home stretch!
Italy v. England
The Forwards
I’ve laid a lot of praise on the English pack so far this Six Nations. As painful as it has been (absolutely excruciating, to be precise), I won’t be changing my tune for the match in Rome this weekend.
England’s defense was once again led by the blitzing forward pack and once again the succeeded in snuffing out any attacking sparks coming from the other side. They truly did boss the gain line as they said they wanted to.
Trying to play rugby when you are getting dominated on the gain line is a bit like trying to build your house on a swamp. It may hold for a bit, but the foundation will eventually give way. Trust me, I lived in Florida once.
England did miss the dynamism of Billy Vunipola but Ben Morgan is hardly any slouch either, topping the meters made for England with some barreling runs of his own. The way the English pack spreads carrying duties across back and middle rows of the pack also helps create some opportunities for their more athletic ball carriers. Scott Johnson could do to take some notes right about this point in the article.
Parisse has returned for the Italians, a massive boost for them. But will Barbieri and Furno be the Lamborghini and Bugatti to Parisse’s Ferrari? Unfortunately, I’m not convinced that they will be. Both struggled to assert themselves agains the Irish and both will likely still be feeling the impact of putting in nearly 25 tackles, each.
Before last weekend any rugby tragic in their right mind would have assumed that Italy would look to weaponize Castro against the English scrum but the dominoes have fallen England’s way this time. Castro was forced to withdraw from the Ireland test due to injury and will not play against England. The English scrum also demonstrated that it is not nearly as vulnerable as many thought it would be. Although I’ll admit a good portion of this would be on the back of clever coaching from Rowntree to take advantage of Poite refereeing the match. Either way, this Italian front row should not pose the same threat that Jones/Jenkins did last weekend.
To the credit of the Italian pack, and team in general, they put in a truly Herculean shift on defense last weekend. Breaking any record I’m aware of from the past decade, Italy completed nearly 250 tackles with a 90% success rate against Ireland. Their defense actually held Ireland to a 7-7 scoreline going into the 25th minute but they were ultimately outclassed by one of the best Irish attacking performances in recent memory. Excellent execution (and a ridiculous amount of possession – notably also not due to Italy giving the ball away by any means) by Ireland was a much bigger factor in the final score than poor defense from Italy was.
The Backs
At this moment England looks set to play with the same back line that played Wales, with the exception of a big change on the bench. That big change will come in the hulking figure of Manu Tuilagi, who in defiance of all known laws of thermal exchange, biodynamics and general medical science has appeared to have gotten larger in his time away from the pitch.
Jack Nowell could be in for a big game as he will likely be afforded more time and space against the Italian defensive system than he was against Wales. He has grown noticeably over the course of this Six Nations and looked confident against Wales with ball in hand.
Owen Farrell will be under pressure to continue to raise his own “X-Factor” in this game. It will be a good chance for him to demonstrate that he can get a back line moving, he has shown it in flashes the past few weeks but has been unable to maintain it for an entire match.
The inclusion of Luciano Orquera in the Italian side was very clearly the right decision following the Ireland match. Considering how little ball Italy had he put in a shift that showed that he is a class above Tommaso Allan right now when it comes to representing the Azzurri. He will be licking his lips at the opportunity to put some of his footwork on display in the 10-12 channel where Farrell was quite shaky on defense last weekend.
Leonardo Sarto put in a great performance against Ireland as well last weekend. He showed a nose for the line (albeit aided by some remarkably poor defending by the Kearney brothers) and was genuinely dangerous when he was put into space. His partner on the other wing, Angelo Esposito, does not look much more settled than he was making his debut earlier this Six Nations and was nothing short of a defensive sieve last weekend. He will be sweating buckets when Lawes, Robshaw and co. begin lining up further out as the match progresses.
The Prediction
Italy put in a solid defensive shift last weekend, despite the score line. The big key for them will be finding a way to maintain possession on their own ball, but also primarily to find a way to disrupt England when they have the ball.
England was solid against Wales without being spectacular. They looked a bit naive though when play would break down and real scoring opportunities arose. There were a few instances where South Africa, New Zealand or Australia would have almost absolutely scored a try and instead England bobbled the ball around aimlessly and the defense had time to realign.
Addressing this lack of a “killer instinct” as they call it will be a major point for England leading into the upcoming Rugby World Cup.
That said, I expect England to take this one by 15+ on the back another forward-dominant (with a sprinkling of Luther Burrell) display.
Wales v. Scotland
The Forwards
Both forward packs should be going into this game wildly pissed off and will hopefully absolutely belt each other for our entertainment. Scotland were more or less robbed against France while Wales confirmed some of their own worst fears against the English at Twickenham last weekend.
Wales will be happy to have Luke Charteris back in the squad. He is one tall timber of a bloke and is pretty decent in open play too. His extra weight at the scrum and cartoonish height at the line out should benefit the boys in red.
Ken Owens has been brought in to replace Richard Hibbard and for good reason. Hibbard simply looked worn down towards the end of his match against England and likely is. He plays a particularly brutal role for Wales, quite literally making his living by smashing into other forwards close to the breakdown. It’s a bit of a miracle his body has held up under the level of consistent punishment he’s exposed it to for the past two years.
In a bit of perplexing selection, Scarlets 3rd choice tighthead prop Rhodri Jones has been chosen to start on the tighthead side of the scrum for Wales this weekend. This selection confuses me on two different levels. The first being that I assumed, foolishly, that someone who plays the vast majority of their time on one side of the scrum would continue to be developed on the side of the scrum they have proven they can be a performer on (permutations of a generation gap now forming with Jones a THP in Gatland’s eyes and the ever-aging body of Gethin Jenkins aside..). Secondly, Samson Lee has been murdering opposition looseheads for fun this year, what more does he need to do?
Ryan Wilson has been brought in for Scotland to replace the injured John Beattie, with Alasdair Strokosh coming onto the bench. Wilson may be a bit fortunate to get the nod over Strokosh in fact, who can be a very damaging player around the breakdowns.
Once again though Dave Denton was called upon to do the vast majority of the carrying for the Scottish pack and once again this strategy was easily read by the opposition. Even with what was probably the strongest ball-carrying 6 and 7 in Scotland’s squad on the pitch, Denton carried the ball more than both of them combined. It panned out better than it had in weeks prior, but still is not a passable way to play at the test level.
Jim Hamilton and Richie Gray both put in a great shift at line out time last weekend and will be looking to replicate this work against a Welsh line out that is still trying to find it’s rhythm.
The Backs
In a move that feels like it has been nearly a century in the making, Warren Gatland has started Dan Bigger over Rhys Priestland at 10. I’m not sure why it took this many games to happen, but it has happened. Biggar will not need to do a whole lot to have technically played better than Priestland has in any given game so far this Six Nations. But, I’m sure he knows that even if he has the game of his life, Priestland will be the one Gatland selects against South Africa.
Mike Phillips has also been brought back into the starting side with Rhys Webb exiled from the 23. He will need to demonstrate that being dropped from the starting lineup against England has well and truly lit a fire up his ass. Webb was very clearly out of his depth against England and I can’t really argue against him being dropped. There’s definitely some Ospreys fans who have made their “I told you” rounds of the local pub this week.
I can’t help but notice the similarities that have emerged between Phillips and Genia over the past six or so months. One is constantly trying to fight the opposition while the other sooks at his own team, both are/were kicking poorly, both are not displaying the running game we all know they have, and now both have been dropped from their respective starting national sides as a message to get their shit together.
Perhaps we will see a bit more of an open game plan from Wales with Biggar at 10 and the relative lack of consequence attached to the match. Jamie Roberts and
Jonathan “Jiffy Jr.” Davies have hopefully gone to rehab in the past week after overdosing on Gatlandball last weekend. Both centers combined for less passes than Talupe Faletau managed during the test against England.
Scotland will be praying that they can get some magic from the back three like they did last weekend. Stuart Hogg showed what he’s capable of when you give him enough ball but I don’t think Wales will show the same laziness in their chase as France did at times last weekend.
Edinburgh-based winger Dougie Fife has been brought into the 11 jersey to add his own pace to their injury-ravaged back three. He’s a solid player that as Scott Johnson has said “chases everything”. Johnson also then went to praise Fife for his size..which at 6’1″ and 90-95kg he isn’t lacking but also doesn’t really have in any considerable amount. I will gladly take whatever Mr. Johnson has been smoking because based on his behavior the past few weeks it is that really, really good stuff.
Ultimately though, I am afraid the Scottish backs will be restrained by the overwhelming mediocrity that has plagued the Scottish 10 jersey in recent years. It’s very hard to drive a car with a broken axel.
The Prediction
Wales should handle this one comfortably and may be looking to work out a bit of anger from what has been a disappointing 6 Nations for them. Scotland may be in for a bit of a beating after having their egos inflated by a diabolically poor French side.
Wales by 15+.
France v. Ireland
The Forwards
When you consider the sheer amount and depth of talent available in France right now the performance of their forward pack last weekend can really only be classified as “completely diabolical”. It may be the first time I have seen a first-tier nation lose more line outs than it won during the course of a test match. They were fortunate to break even on their scrums to the tune of 2 won and 2 lost against the scrummaging giant that is Scotland.
You only needed to watch the post-game press conference where Nicolas Mas stormed off after being asked why the French pack was not as dominant as it had been in the past to see how these players are feeling about their own play right now.
The musings of former French starlet Sebastian Chabal (who played under Saint-Andre at Bourgoin and Sale) to the press may sum things up more succinctly: “We’re in shit”.
Picamoles will return for Les Bleus after being laid off for disrespecting the referee with some mock clapping the other week. Oddly though, it will be at blindside flanker, not his usual position of number 8. While he is not quite as hulking as Vahaamahina, Picamoles is certainly not renowned for his work rate and is much more of a big-bopper with good hands than he is a mobile and grafting blindside.
It’s looking like Saint-Andre has decided to mimic the style of back-row balance we have seen come out of South Africa in recent years with three big units lining up at 6, 7, and 8. Alexandre Lapandry being named as a 6’4″ 230 pound openside flanker only cements this in my mind. This indicates that France may be looking to keep the game tight and will look to actively avoid the backs-on-backs situations which Ireland was able to create against Italy.
France is without a doubt struggling with all of Nyanga, Ouedraogo and Dusatoir out with injury right now.
With a set piece that seems to be about as solid as warm Jell-O at the moment this style of play could backfire spectacularly on the French.
The Irish line out has lost only 4 balls out of 61 this entire tournament.
Ireland’s forwards should continue on with their strong form and continue to do the little things right that win you test matches. As a group they have committed the least penalties and won the most turnovers of any forward pack in the 2014 Six Nations. Toss in the best line out in the competition and quite a strong scrum and there aren’t really many boxes that this Irish side does not tick.
They do, to a degree, lack a serious ball-carrying presence at the moment but have been able to consistently secure those small margins of victory over the gain line and make the most out of those opportunities in the backs. O’Connell just isn’t the warhorse he used to be (although he’s still damn good) and Heaslip is much more of a quick, athletic ball carrier than he is a battering ram. As a unit though the Irish pack functions in a way that allows them to become much more than the sum of their parts, much like England at the moment.
The Backs
In a move that should shock absolutely nobody at the moment Saint-Andre has selected a new halfback pairing for this match with Remi Tales coming in at flyhalf. I don’t quite understand this change as in my eyes Tales doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table that Plisson doesn’t. Both seem to fluctuate somewhere between average and disappointing during their stints with Les Bleus.
In fact, Tales’ defensive efforts at club level in the past few weeks may have turned him into a big of a target for some of the Route 1 runners coming off the hip of Jonny Sexton this weekend.
19-year-old Gael Fickou has finally been named in the French starting lineup, although at 12 and not his preferred position of 13 in an attempt to cover for the loss of Wesley Fofana to injury. Saint-Andre has stated that he will likely use Bastareaud on the inside channels to open up space for Fickou in the wider ones. If that’s the case I’m not sure what he thinks he has to gain by naming Fickou at 12 and Mathieu at 13. It’s sort of a moot point so let’s just move on.
All of this considered, France still has a very dangerous back-three. Huget has garnered a bit of a nickname in the French press recently as the “Ball Magnet”. It seems that whenever the opposition messes up, the ball somehow finds itself in the arms of Huget.
Brice Dulin is no slouch either. He’s a very capable fullback and while a bit diminutive, he is lightning-quick and can easily leave players grasping for air. I’m still a little baffled though as to why Bonneval is not on the other wing and Maxime Medard still is. I try not to delve too deeply into the mind of one Pierre Saint-Andre for fear of losing my own.
In another unsurprising move, Ireland have named an unchanged back line with the exception of Murray returning to the 9 jersey. There are still whispers around the fact that the backs as named lack a true speed merchant or anyone with the ability to regularly beat defenders one-on-one, but sometimes you just don’t fix it if it ain’t broke.
D’Arcy will be looking to regain some face after being physically dominated by the Italian defense a few times last weekend. While he did not have a bad game by any stretch it has to hurt the ego a bit to get lifted and driven back like he was as the starting 12 for Ireland.
O’Driscoll on the other hand put in a pretty brilliant performance last weekend, showcasing more flair and guile in one test than I’ve seen out of him in the past several. He looked 5 years younger playing against Italy and it was great to watch. He also showed that he’s still a menace on the ground and will disrupt your ball just as well as about any loose forward can. It would be wonderful to see him cap his career with another vintage performance.
The Kearney brothers both need to be more active defensively this game though. The try from Italy last weekend was borderline inexcusable with Rob Kearney showing that he still struggles to make that cover tackle on the touch line. Dave Kearney could also be seen on the hawks-eye camera far out of position and contributing to the lack of a second defensive line stopping the Italian winger. Mistakes like this can’t be afforded in Paris.
Murray returning should also be a boost for Ireland, he has truly grown into one of the best scrum-halves in Europe over the past two or three years. Overall he’s been playing very well and his box kicks are absolutely huge! Eoin Reddan also showed last weekend that he’s more than capable of filling in for Murray should something happen during the match.
Even though this Irish back line seems to lack a true game-breaker they played with an incisiveness last weekend that has been missing from the Irish backs since around 2009-2010. The quickness between the ears of Sexton and O’Driscoll has done a lot to make up for the relative lack of quickness on the ground shared by the entire backs division.
The Prediction
There’s going to be a lot of emotion on the Irish side going into this match, it is the final farewell to Drico after all. The Irish are coming off a decisive win against Italy and have very visibly been growing as a squad under the tutelage of Joe Schmidt.
France, on the other hand, seems to have very little going for them other than their historical record against Ireland. Perhaps this is just my own personal attitude but in cases like this, history should (and ultimately does) mean absolutely nothing.
The better of the two teams on the day is the one who will win the match, not the team who had a better squad 5, 10 or 15 years ago.
France will fight to keep this game as tight as they can by the looks of things while Ireland will be leaning on tip-top execution throughout the squad to get them over the line. It will be a much sterner test than Italy was but this French team is in shambles right now.
Ireland by 10+.
