The 2014 Six Nations tournament is about to kick off with Wales attempting a hat-trick of tournament victories. While this is an Australian rugby blog, rugby union is a global sport. With another Rugby World Cup rapidly creeping up on us the permutations of what happens on the pitches of Europe will ring louder than ever in the ears of Australia rugby fans.
So, will England continue to grow as a squad? Will the French finally get their shit together? Will this Welsh squad ever reach the highs of the 1970s, a shadow they cannot seem to step out of?
Wales v. Italy
Although this has been openly billed as the “most open” 6 Nations tournament in recent history I don’t honestly think Scotland or Italy have much of a chance at finishing anywhere other than the bottom two. Both are more than capable of winning an upset match at home, but will struggle to find the consistency on the road generally needed to claim the championship.
Going along with this reasoning, I can’t see much of a chance that Italy will slay the dragon at Millenium Stadium this weekend.
The Forwards
The Italians are at their strongest in the forward pack, unfortunately for them the Welsh are strong here as well. The Welsh pack have proven in the past few months that even if their line out is somewhat dysfunctional, and the scrum has issues staying steady without Adam Jones, that they have the size and athleticism to compete with the best packs in the world in open play. If the Welsh forwards can bring even 50% of the intensity and physicality to this test as they did the one against South Africa I can’t see the Italian pack staying in the game for long.
Parisse may be one of the classiest 8s in the game but one man a forward pack does not make. While both Bergamasco and Zanni are both solid operators the men packing down in between them will likely fail to provide the impact needed to go blow-for-blow with a team like Wales. The scrum will be interesting and I think the quality of scrummaging from both teams may ultimately come down to how the pitch at Millennium Stadium holds up during the course of the test.
Adam Jones back in a Welsh uniform speaks well for their scrum and young Scarlets loosehead prop Rhodri Jones has been billed as one to watch when he comes off the bench. Martin Castrogiovani will do his usual toiling at scrum time, but whether or not the Italian backs can make use of any victories he may win in the scrum remains to be seen.
The Backs
20-year old Italian wing Angelo Esposito will be making his test debut with the monstrous task of marking the one and only George North. The straight running of centers Jamie Roberts and Scott Williams should also cause headaches for the Italian backs. We all saw first hand what you can do to Italy when you begin aggressively attacking the wider channels with decoy runners operating on the inside not that long ago.
How well the Welsh back line fires will ultimately come down to which Rhys Priestland shows up to this test. The man rapidly went from Rugby World Cup hero to Down Under Series zero and his international form has been in limbo since. He is a mesmerizing operator when he is at his best and reminds me of a souped-up Toby Flood when on form. I’m sure he will be keen to take his jersey back from Dan Biggar, hopefully for Wales he plays like it too.
Tommaso Allan will be the one to watch in the Italian back line. The 20 year old is already being billed as the flyhalf Italian rugby has so long been waiting for, on Saturday we will see what all the hype is about. Although, the fact that he is already the starting flyhalf for Perpignan (by forcing Welsh international and former Wales flyhalf James Hook to move to 15) at the age of 20 speaks volumes about his ability and potential. The boy definitely has the rugby pedigree, being the nephew of dual Scottish/South African international John Allan. He’s also played in an array of professional environments before, having already played for Western Province, Scotland U-20 and now the Azurri, and all at only 20 years old!
The Prediction
I predict Wales will begin to run away with the game around 30-45 minutes and should win comfortably by 10-14+ points.
Ireland v. Scotland
This is another one I have trouble seeing going any way other than that of the home team. If the Irish can reproduce some of what they dished out in the first half against New Zealand they should cruise fairly comfortably to victory against Scotland (barring a catastrophic rain storm before kickoff). Scotland are simply missing too many key players through injury right now, and have made some selections that frankly confuse me.
The Forwards
In the forwards Ireland will be missing Sean O’Brien, his form in the autumn internationals was something to admire and he is an absolute bull of a player both on attack and defense. Jim Hamilton for Scotland is a very solid operator in the line out but other than him Scotland will struggle to contest the Irish throw ins and may even lose some of their own with a potentially taller Irish back row being played in light of O’Brien’s injury (Ireland has not named a 23 as of yet).
Scotland will also be hurting in the scrums with Cian Healy on the pitch for Ireland and the exclusion of their own Euan Murray due to injury. Murray’s contribution to the Scottish scrum has been immense during his test career and they historically struggle without his presence when it is time to pack down. The exclusion of John Beattie from the Scottish pack has me scratching my head a bit. This team needs strong ball runners in the pack if they want to have any chance and I believe that he offers more than Ryan Wilson in that department.
Another strong ball carrying presence in the Scottish forward pack would allow David Denton to come into his own again. While fairly average in other aspects of his game, Denton has shown he can be a very strong ball carrier. But when Scotland lean on him for such a large portion of their go-forward it makes their play easy to read and makes it even easier to shut down Denton as we saw in the autumn internationals.
The Backs
This will be the final Six Nations for Brian O’Driscoll and many are calling for a vintage performance from him, but based on recent international form I am tempering my expectations. Don’t get me wrong, Drico is still a class act and may be one of the best defensive centers (both on the ground and in the tackle) in the world right now, but he just isn’t ripping defenses to shreds with his legs like he used to, and why should he – he is aging and has taken more physical abuse in the past decade than most people do in a lifetime.
Instead Drico has become an incredibly shrewd player who has only gotten better at enabling the men around him and disabling the opposition on their own ball as time has passed. I expect a great performance from him, just one that is less flashy in nature than what comes to mind when the imagery of a “classic” Drico performance is evoked.
As for the other backs the Irish will be relying on Jonny Sexton to continue trending upwards as he has in the recent weeks if they are to make any use out of players like O’Driscoll. Sexton had an incredibly poor start to his time in France (playing for Racing Metro, for those who missed it) but has improved recently and has been a solid international player in the past. I expect him to have a good tournament. Hopefully he stays healthy, the other options at 10 for Ireland have more or less shown they are either not as capable or just not fully prepared for international rugby at the highest level, yet. Ireland will want to get out on the scoreboard early and maintain a lead of at least a try on the Scotts.
They definitely do not want to get into a kicking duel with Scotland, as they lack a world class goal kicker at the moment. The Scottish backs will be reeling without the presence of Tim Visser on attack, while he’s a bit of a turnstile on defense the man runs some scything lines with startling agility for someone his size. The relegation of Matt Scott to the bench will do nothing but compound this lack of penetration in the Scottish backs. This leaves Stuart Hogg as the lone attacking threat in the Scottish backs. While he’s a remarkably agile player who is very dangerous in space, he seemed to show during the Lions tour that big occasions can get under his skin a bit.
The Prediction
Ireland should take this one by 10+ as long as the weather behaves.
England v. France: Le Crunch
Likely to be the battle of the weekend, I think even the most diehard Wallaby fans can get excited for this one. After all, what’s more exciting than a chance that England may lose at something? I expect England to try and wage war up front, and keep it there. Whether or not the French pack responds with similar play, or whether they enable the mercurial talent they have in their back line will likely be the decider in this one.
Selections indicate that the French will not be backing down from the physical challenge up front. Although France lost the majority of their test matches this year, when you consider who they lost to and watch how they played in those matches I think this French squad is in a much better place than it was this time last year.
The Forwards
The French front row of Domingo, Mas and Kayser seem to have been playing rugby since the inception of the sport. They are a big, skilled and confrontational front row and will be looking to pump the English front row from the first scrum until the end of the match. The presence of Dylan Hartley for England may help to curb this somewhat but Joe Marler has been a liability at test level when it comes to scrum time in the past, he will really need to step up to compete with Nicolas Mas. Sadly, this may be another instance of the poor integrity of the pitch itself having an undue say in the performance of both scrums.
The English forward pack as a unit has been a real bright spot for the Red Roses coming out of the autumn. They have unearthed some real talent in the past two years and have built a pack (plus replacements) that almost across the board are large and shockingly mobile men who are able to get around and use their athleticism to the fullest.
The battle between Louis Picamoles and Billy Vunipola should be a treat to watch. When healthy, Picamoles is easily one of the best 8s in any national squad, while Billy is a rapidly rising star. Both men are wonderful examples of what a modern 8 should look and play like, their clashes should be absolutely titanic in scale. How the French respond to the group rucking of the English pack will also be fascinating to watch.
If there is one thing that the Red Roses forwards currently do very, very well it is driving over the ball in groups of 2-3. But will they be able to get to the breakdown quickly enough to counter the pace of Yannick Nyanga? Be prepared to see both packs make a whole load of tackles on what will likely be a wet surface in Paris – Dusatoir must be kicking himself for missing this one.
The Backs
I am equally excited to see Jules Plisson earn his first French cap as I am terrified that Pierre Saint-Andre did not name Francois Trinh-Duc..or in fact, any replacement flyhalf, on the bench. If Plisson goes down with injury or produces a shocker the only real option will be to move Doussain to flyhalf and bring Machenaud in at 9. Machenaud could also play 10 but either way, it is a 9 playing 10. Are French coaches just totally incapable of learning from past mistakes, or the mistakes of others? I hope Plisson replicates his domestic form but if he fails to do so the wheels could come off of this French team very easily.
Wesley Fofana is a name that every rugby fan in Australia should know before the French come to tour later this year, if you haven’t already heard of him that is. Fofana is an absolutely electric player who runs hard, has a wicked step and tackles like a demon. If Billy Twelvetrees hasn’t massively improved his defense from the autumn I can’t see Fofana going home without a meat pie. How Fofana and big Mathieu Bastareaud gel will have a huge impact on France’s chance of winning this tournament. On paper they are a great modern center pairing, a fast and skillful 12 with a gain line monster capable of some great offloads roaming in the 13 channel. When Bastareaud can keep the ball in his hands he is a force of nature in the wider channels and rarely gets brought down before he crosses the gain line or man-shames another player.
Luther Burrell will be playing opposite Bastareaud on his test debut and is a big unit himself, just of a more vertical nature than Bastareaud. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burrell used on a few inside runs to test Plisson’s defense. Mike Brown seems likely to continue his autumn form at 15 for England, hopefully he will be able to bring some stability to the back three as they debut youngsters Jack Nowell and Jonny May. The French back three will be interesting in and of itself as well.
Brice Dulin well deserves his spot at 15 based on recent and past form, but both Johann Huget and Maxime Medard would make excellent mascots for the animus of French national rugby – sublime one day and horrible the next. Most concerning for the English must be that no replacement for Owen Farrell has been found yet. He simply does not have the distribution or the running game to get an international back line really moving and his kicking game out of hand is fairly average. He’s not a horrible player by any means but I have been left wholly uninspired by the vast majority of his performances at 10.
The Prediction
This English team looks a little too green to pull this one out, and without a real playmaker I can’t see them getting over the French line too often. Frogs by 5+.
So, what do you guys think about this upcoming weekend?
